Monday 3 January 2022

No fancy statistics: a simple plot of vaccination rate against Covid death rate for all countries in the world

Using the "Our Word in Data" website we have extracted the latest snapshot for each country of total vaccinations per hundred people and total 'covid deaths' per million. The full data by country - in order of vaccinations - is listed at the bottom of this page (all numbers rounded to 0 decimal places).

We use inverted commas for 'covid deaths' because (as readers of this blog will know) this is a very vague metric and we have no confidence that it is accurate or consistently collected for any country in the world. If the data were accurate, and if the vaccines worked as claimed, then what we should see when we plot the vaccinations against deaths is something like this:

 i.e. the more vaccinations in a country the fewer deaths.

Obviously there are multiple confounding factors (other than inconsistent reporting) that can impact on the relationship (timing when covid first hit, average population age, population density, geographial location, access to healthcare, etc) not to mention all the missing factors previously discussed**. Ideally the deaths should also be restricted to post-vaccination roll out (difficult to do that using the Our World in Data spreadsheet). But it is still surprising that the following is the actual plot:

All pretty random*** but note the high number of low vaccination, low covid death countries (mainly in Africa) as shown in this map:

But what it really shows more than anything is how poor all the 'official' covid data are (look at the laughable China data) and, because of the universally poor data, how little evidence there is of either the severity of Covid or the effectiveness of any covid interventions.

**As we have been saying since March 2020 all of the 'official' Covid data are essentially useless because they do not provide us with the necessary information to take account of all of the causal explanations for what is observed:


Country total vaccinations per hundred total deaths per million
Gibraltar 322 2968
Cuba 268 735
Chile 230 2035
United Arab Emirates 224 216
Iceland 209 108
Denmark 209 560
Isle of Man 208 784
Malta 208 922
South Korea 202 111
Uruguay 200 1771
China 197 3
Cayman Islands 196 165
Faeroe Islands 196 285
United Kingdom 195 2181
Ireland 194 1186
Portugal 191 1864
Belgium 186 2434
Seychelles 185 1324
Bahrain 185 797
Spain 184 1909
Italy 184 2278
France 183 1830
Austria 182 1520
Bermuda 182 1707
Canada 181 798
Israel 180 887
Cambodia 180 178
Brunei 179 222
Germany 178 1336
Norway 178 239
Qatar 178 211
Malaysia 176 961
Singapore 175 149
Finland 175 282
Sweden 173 1507
Cyprus 172 698
Argentina 168 2569
Greece 167 2005
Australia 165 88
Luxembourg 165 1429
Liechtenstein 165 1804
Mongolia 161 619
Kuwait 160 570
Mauritius 160 188
New Zealand 160 10
San Marino 159 2793
Japan 158 146
Switzerland 158 1397
Sri Lanka 158 698
Hungary 156 3934
Netherlands 155 1193
Brazil 155 2894
Turkey 155 968
Lithuania 154 2752
United States 153 2476
Aruba 153 1689
Ecuador 153 1881
Vietnam 151 322
Costa Rica 151 1429
Andorra 150 1719
Bhutan 148 4
Peru 148 6071
Thailand 147 309
El Salvador 147 585
Taiwan 146 36
Maldives 145 482
Saudi Arabia 144 251
Czechia 144 3374
Turks and Caicos Islands 144 586
Fiji 140 772
Slovenia 140 2693
Greenland 138 18
Iran 137 1545
Latvia 137 2443
Morocco 135 397
Panama 135 1696
Anguilla 134 264
Curacao 132 1147
Hong Kong 132 28
Dominican Republic 129 388
Monaco 126 835
Colombia 126 2533
Poland 124 2581
New Caledonia 123 971
Antigua and Barbuda 123 1195
Serbia 120 1840
British Virgin Islands 118 1282
French Polynesia 116 2251
Nicaragua 116 32
Croatia 116 3072
Oman 116 787
Uzbekistan 115 44
Estonia 115 1458
Mexico 114 2299
Slovakia 112 3046
Azerbaijan 111 818
Wallis and Futuna 108 631
Belize 105 1462
Venezuela 105 183
India 104 346
Barbados 104 904
Saint Kitts and Nevis 102 523
Cape Verde 102 625
Tunisia 102 2141
Indonesia 101 521
Montenegro 101 3844
Russia 101 2080
Trinidad and Tobago 100 2054
Rwanda 99 102
Philippines 98 463
Guyana 97 1318
Honduras 95 1037
Paraguay 95 2301
Kosovo 94 1678
Kazakhstan 92 959
Botswana 92 1020
Timor 89 91
North Macedonia 84 3752
Romania 83 3072
Suriname 83 2009
Bolivia 82 1661
Belarus 82 570
Albania 81 1116
Jordan 80 1205
Bangladesh 80 169
Laos 79 19
Bahamas 76 1796
Nepal 74 390
Pakistan 70 128
Grenada 69 1770
Ukraine 65 2354
Lebanon 65 1350
Tajikistan 64 13
Palestine 63 932
Georgia 63 3457
Guatemala 62 883
Sao Tome and Principe 62 255
Montserrat 61 201
Comoros 59 170
Myanmar 58 350
Saint Lucia 57 1600
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 55 728
Armenia 55 2676
Bulgaria 54 4492
Egypt 51 207
Vanuatu 49 3
Zimbabwe 48 332
Bosnia and Herzegovina 48 3590
South Africa 46 1515
Mozambique 46 62
Moldova 44 2556
Jamaica 41 833
Libya 39 819
Iraq 34 586
Angola 34 52
Eswatini 34 1102
Kyrgyzstan 34 423
Lesotho 32 308
Equatorial Guinea 31 121
Namibia 29 1398
Algeria 28 139
Togo 28 29
Gabon 25 125
Ghana 24 40
Congo 23 63
Guinea 21 29
Uganda 21 69
Guinea-Bissau 21 74
Djibouti 20 189
Kenya 18 98
Cote d'Ivoire 18 26
Liberia 17 55
Central African Republic 16 21
Benin 14 13
Senegal 13 110
Afghanistan 13 183
Sudan 12 72
Sierra Leone 11 15
Gambia 11 138
Syria 10 156
Ethiopia 9 59
Somalia 9 81
Zambia 9 197
Malawi 9 120
Nigeria 7 14
Papua New Guinea 6 65
Mali 5 32
Burkina Faso 5 15
Tanzania 4 12
Niger 4 10
Cameroon 4 67
Madagascar 3 34
Yemen 3 64
South Sudan 2 12
Chad 2 11
Haiti 2 66
Burundi 0 3
Mozambique 0 22


***For those who place value in correlation coefficients for such relationships (we don't) there is a significant positive correlation of 0.31 between number of vaccines and number of deaths



  1. Correlation coefficient may not give one too much information, but I would LOVE to see the strength of a correlation between total vaccination to date and total excess mortality.....
    £50 to your favourite charity that the correlation will be stronger.

    1. A very good idea. I hope Dr. Fenton obliges.

  2. Bolgger Orwell2024 did have a look at excess deaths and vaccination, Eva Smagacz - Michael Levitt praised this work:

  3. As you have repeatedly stated in several of your analyses published on this blog, the only objective metric that can and should be used to determine the efficacy, or lack thereof, of a particular vaccine is all-cause mortality. It is for this very reason, data regarding all-cause mortality, not just in relation to the covid vaccines, but to many other vaccines in the past, are typically suppressed or obfuscated (e.g. released in a form susceptible to confounding by other factors). However, truth has a tendency to emerge, even inadvertently, in some form or another. The analyses published on this blog is hitting extremely close to that truth despite the intentional suppression and obfuscation of crucial data, the proper disclosure and transparency of which would've obviated the need for such excellent analyses.

    Take, for example, the DTP (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis) vaccine, which is amongst the most widely and frequently administrated vaccine in the past century. In 2017, a team of doctors and scientists found a unique opportunity to carry out a natural experiment in Africa in order to determine the effectiveness of the DTP vaccine purely in terms of all-cause mortality.

    The study was well-designed and thorough, and free from biases that had plagued (often intentionally so) previous studies of this nature, such as the "healthy user bias" (i.e. people who were too frail and ill to take a vaccine would automatically fall into the unvaccinated group and thus affect the results in favour of the vaccinated).

    The results were shocking, to say the least.

    Although, the DTP vaccine was successful in reducing incidences of Diptheria, Tetanus and Pertussis in the vaccinated group, which is traditionally the only metric used to determine vaccine efficacy, the vaccine was also "successful" in increasing all-cause mortality by a factor of 10!

    Combined administration of DTP with the oral polio vaccine, while again "successful" in reducing incidences of the target diseases, was also "successful" in increasing all-cause mortality by a factor of 5.

    Dr Peter Aaby, one of the authors of this study and amongst the leading vaccine experts in the world, was constrained to admit candidly:

    “All currently available evidence suggests that DTP vaccine may kill more children from other causes than it saves from diphtheria, tetanus or pertussis.”

    Please refer to Mogensen et al, 2017,
    "The Introduction of Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis and Oral Polio Vaccine Among Young Infants in an Urban African Community: A Natural Experiment."

    The parallels with these Covid vaccines are clear, although it may even be debatable whether or not they successfully reduce incidences of the target disease, Covid. Nevertheless, all-cause mortality should ALWAYS (though, in practice, it is never) be the only metric to determine the true efficacy of a particular vaccine.

    1. It's more than a few childhood vaccines that have been associated with increased all-cause mortality. And multiple studies of DTP done different ways have all found increased mortality. There is even a second "natural experiment" published like the one you mention. You are right that these are really the best types of studies. A sad situation. Perhaps in another 30 years there will be some semblance of justice for all this.

    2. At last someone tells it like it really is. I'm a scientist myself and am baffled by how many simply ignore the real data. Congratulations, now if the Gove just listens to you.

    3. "Perhaps in another 30 years there will be some semblance of justice for all this."

      I hope you're right, but so long as the entire industry, from top to bottom, continues to be rigged with conflicts of interest, as it is currently, any semblance of justice for the millions, possibly billions, of collateral casualties of this brutally ruthless industry will remain a pipedream.

    4. At first glance, this (Aabey et al) is a troubling study, but it also raises some questions. Why is the mortality rate of boys so much higher than that of girls? Why do the reported mortality rates not correspond to the official ones? Why are sick children not counted among the non-vaccinated, even though it is not at all clear that they were not vaccinated in principle? Is it at all meaningful under these conditions (extremely high infant mortality, very small number of few deaths)?

    5. Hi Anonymous:
      1) Boy mortality is higher because it kills more boys than girls. Sex-differences with vaccines is not a new thing. For example, myocarditis may be more common after covid vaccines with men than women. If you read measles studies, what you will find is measles appears to cut boy mortality more than girls. Just the opposite. I think this is in part because the kids visibly harmed by earlier DTP are not given measles vaccines months later because their parents no longer trust vaccines. Then some of those kids die from earlier DTP harms, are counted in a control group, and make measles vaccine look like it has huge all-cause mortality benefit, but especially in boys.

      2) Not sure I understand the question.

      3)That study is a natural experiment that only includes vaccinated children. There are no unvaccinated children. Children's "unvaccinated time" is being compared to "vaccinated time". In a sense, vaccinated children are being compared to themselves at different times. This is the beauty of such a design because it eliminates the classical selection biases that happen if you have an unvaccinated control group.

      4) Extremely high infant mortality is precisely were DTP would be dangerous. It makes you more likely to die of other infections, so the increased mortality shows up where other deadly infections are going around. Yes, small numbers and deaths are an issue. But a second natural experiment confirmed similar results. Plus all the least biased earlier cohort and case-control studies found the same thing. Different methods, all same signal. It means it's almost certainly true.

  4. Would it be possible to do a "Total Covid deaths per million" VS "Total excess deaths per million" graph. And also a "Total excess deaths per million" VS "Total deaths per million". I understand that all data is poor, but as soon as I read your article it came to my mind what would look like if we had also the excess deaths. Thanks. Regards

    1. I wonder if such a graph could tell us about which countries are the worst offenders in terms of misclassifying non-covid deaths as covid deaths?

  5. The central African nations are less affected by Covid because the IFR of Covid is exponential with age, about a factor of 10 increased mortality per 20 years of age, and the median age in that region is about 20 years, while in Europe it is 40 years. That means I'd expect the mortality impact of Covid on Africa is ten times less than in Europe. And obviously the central African nations have a lot of more severe medical and health problems than Covid (poverty, hunger, water, etc...).

  6. If one adds time into consideration, as one should, pondering Covid-19 deaths 14 days later and how the relationship vaccines vs. future deaths evolves, the picture is actually one where it seems that more Covid-19 vaccination actually leads to more Covid-19 deaths.

    Just plot time (days), daily vaccination rates, and deaths 14 days later. Then do a surface fit (Linear, for simplicity, or something like a Spline to better "hug" the data points). One finds that deaths decrease with time and actually INCREASE with vaccination.

    I posted a graph in response to your tweet.

  7. Recently I thought I'll have another look at Alfred Russel Wallace's brilliant (19th century) exposé of the smallpox vaccination racket, entitled, " Vaccination a Delusion: It’s Penal Enforcement a Crime."

    I recall that the very same ploys employed by the vaccine industry which the author so expertly uncovered more than a century ago were still at play with many modern vaccines. The covid versions today have simply taken this fraud to new levels.

    I found an online version of the book on the Gutenberg website. When I clicked the link to the book, I was immediately struck by the author’s preface. Notice how much of it bears an uncanny resemblance and relevance to our predicament today:

    Vaccination a Delusion

    Its Penal Enforcement a Crime:






    This Essay has been written for the purpose of influencing Parliament, and securing the speedy abolition of the unjust, cruel, and pernicious Vaccination laws. For this purpose it has been necessary to speak plainly of the ignorance and incompetence displayed by the Royal Commission, proofs of which I give from their “Final Report” and the evidence they have collected and printed.

    I most solemnly urge upon our Legislators that this is a question not only of the liberties of Englishmen, but one affecting the lives of their children, and the health of the whole community; and that they will be individually responsible if they do not inquire into this matter for themselves,—not accept the statements or opinions of others.

    In order that they may do this with a minimum expenditure of time and labour, I have put before them the essential facts, in almost every case taken from the Reports of the Royal Commission or of the Registrar-General, and with references to page, question, or paragraph, so that they can themselves verify every statement I make.

    I thus abundantly prove, first, that in all previous legislation they have been misled by facts and figures that are untrue and by promises that have been all unfulfilled; and that similar misstatements have characterised the whole official advocacy of Vaccination from the time of Jenner down to this day. I claim, therefore, that all official statements as to Vaccination are untrustworthy.

    I then show that all the statistics of small-pox mortality, whether of London; of England, Scotland, and Ireland; of the best vaccinated Continental States; of unvaccinated Leicester; or of the revaccinated Army and Navy, without any exception, prove the absolute inutility of Vaccination; and I feel confident that every unprejudiced person who will carefully read these few pages, and will verify such of my statements as seem to them most incredible, will be compelled to come to the same conclusion.

    I appeal from the medical and official apologists of Vaccination to the intelligence and common sense of my fellow-countrymen, and I urge them to insist upon the immediate abolition of all legislation enforcing or supporting this useless and dangerous operation.