Friday, 17 January 2020

Understanding Bayes theorem

As part of my presentation at the Wolfson Institute of Preventative Medicine today I got some audience participation using the mentimeter tool. One of the things I did was to test the participants' understanding of Bayes before and after the seminar. I posed this question*:

The results were very interesting. Before the seminar the 'average' probability answer was 76% (but note the variation in the distribution)

After, the average was  9.4%

The correct answer is just below 0.5%:

*Based on example from:  Neapolitan, Richard, Xia Jiang, Daniela P. Ladner, and Bruce Kaplan. 2016. “A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Kidney Transplant Decision.” Transplantation 100 (3): 489–96.