Our new research (full paper with first author Clare Craig available on ResearchGate) has discovered over 26,000 covid and non-covid deaths expected to have occurred within two weeks of first dose vaccination have been omitted from the latest UK ONS deaths by vaccination status report:
|Estimated deaths for England that were not included in the ONS dataset|
The ONS data also fails to include millions of people categorised in the UK NIMS database as ‘within 21 days vaccination’ status:
Our analysis compares expected deaths in the ONS dataset to those that have occurred in the whole population. We only use data from UK government sources including data from NIMS and UKHSA. We found implausibly low number of non-covid deaths in the ‘within 21 days of first dose’ category:
The ONS dataset only includes the number of non-covid
deaths equivalent to the number expected to have occurred in the third week after
vaccination only. So the expected deaths for the first two weeks post first dose
vaccination are missing. This is the case for all age groups 60+. For example, here is the 70-79 age group:
For covid deaths the same patterns are evident, across all
age groups 60+. This is a significant and rather troubling anomaly warranting
an explanation. Covid deaths are also implausibly lower than expectations:
Here the expected covid deaths occurring in the 80+ age group during the first two weeks are missing from the ONS data:in our last research paper.
A variety of factors could have led to deaths being omitted, including miscategorisation, reporting lags and data handling or transcription errors:
|Vaccination record data flow highlighting potential sources of error|
Hence, we believe that the dataset is corrupted, making any inferences
about vaccine efficacy or safety, reliant on the data, moot.
We have presented these findings to the ONS and they have acknowledged in correspondence that our analyses are valuable and important. They have also promised to release all raw data to allow independent analysis and to investigate the serious anomalies reported by our paper.
Clare Craig has published a twitter thread with more insights from the research.
Full details of the new paper:
Craig, C., Neil, M., Fenton, N., McLachlan, S., Smalley, J., Guetzkow, J., Engler, J., Russell, D., Rose, J. (2022). "Official mortality data for England reveal systematic undercounting of deaths occurring within first two weeks of Covid-19 vaccination". https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248