A short paper by Neil et al uses Bayesian analysis to examine the latest (up to 22 Sept) Covid data to determine whether there is evidence to support the Government claim of an exponential 'second wave'. Concludes there remains insufficiently solid evidence, despite the number of tests done, to support any claim there is an exponential increase. There is no reason to panic.
|Infection prevalence between April and September (Week 1 is 12 Aug and week 39 is 19 Sept|
Link to paper: