UK: Plotting new Covid cases per 1000 tested

Following on from my analysis of the trend in Covid deaths (and using the same dataset), here is a plot (for each day since 8 April*) of the number of new cases per 1000 people tested. Contrary to what is being shown by the media (see below), this plot is the one that should be used to base decisions on if and when new social distancing or lockdown rules are needed.

When we consider that a higher proportion of new cases now (compared to the first 2 months) are minor or totally asymptomatic**, I find it is rather incredible that the following graph of just new cases (that strongly indicates 'second wave') is the one used by almost all media outlets.  This graph does not take account of the increase in number of people tested. Neither does it take account of the decrease in proportion of deaths per cases, nor the false positive test rate (and so further exagerrates the scale of the problem):

Of course this graph conveniently shows 'strong evidence' of a 'second wave' - something which better fits the narrative of a lot of influential people.

*This is the first date for which there is a record of number of people tested.

**As evidenced by the continued very low death rates shown in my previous piece:

UPDATE 18 Sept. Here are the latest data on hospitalizations and deaths from the Government's own Coronovirus website:

See also

• Taking account of false positives in COVID19 testing
• COVID19 plotting changing death rates taking account of numbers tested
• All COVID19 articles