As part of my presentation at the Wolfson Institute of Preventative Medicine today I got some audience participation using the mentimeter tool. One of the things I did was to test the participants' understanding of Bayes before and after the seminar. I posed this question*:
The results were very interesting. Before the seminar the 'average' probability answer was 76% (but note the variation in the distribution)
After, the average was 9.4%
The correct answer is just below 0.5%:
*Based on example from: Neapolitan, Richard, Xia Jiang, Daniela P. Ladner, and Bruce Kaplan. 2016. “A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Kidney Transplant Decision.” Transplantation 100 (3): 489–96.
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