Fenton, N.E., & Neil, M. (2018). "Is decision-making using historical data alone more dangerous than lawnmowers?", Open Access Report DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.20914.71363. Also available here.
Improving public understanding of probability and risk with special emphasis on its application to the law. Why Bayes theorem and Bayesian networks are needed
Thursday, 11 January 2018
On lawnmowers and terrorists again: the danger of using historical data alone for decision-making
The short paper and blog posting
we did last week generated a lot of interest, especially after Nicholas
Taleb retweeted it. An edited version (along with a response from a
representative of the Royal Statistical Society) is going to appear in
the February issue of Significance magazine (which is the magazine of
the RSS and the American Statistical Association). In the mean time we
have produced another short paper that explores further problems with
the 'lawnmower versus terrorist risk' statistics - in particular the
inevitable limitations and dangers of relying on historical data alone
for risk assessment:
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