Helping US Intelligence Analysts using Bayesian networks

Causal Bayesian networks are at the heart of a major new collaborative research project led by Australian University Monash  - funded by the United States' Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). The objective is to help intelligence analysts assess the value of their information. IARPA was set up following the failure of the US intelligence agencies to properly assess the correct levels of threat posed by Al Qaeda in 2001 and Iraq in 2003.

The chief investigator at Monash, Kevin Korb, said in an interview in the Australian:

"..quantitative rather than qualitative methods were crucial in judging the value of intelligence.... more quantitative approaches could have helped contain the ebola epidemic by making authorities appreciate the scale of the problem months earlier. They could also build a better assessment of the likelihood of events like gunfire between vessels in the South China Sea, a substantial devaluation of the Venezuelan currency or a new presidential aspirant in Egypt."

Norman Fenton and Martin Neil (both of Agena and Queen Mary University of London) will be working on the project along with colleagues such as David Lagnado and Ulrike Hahn at UCL.  AgenaRisk will be used throughout the project as the Bayesian network platform.

Further information:

• Australian) Melbourne unis awarded rare contracts by US intelligence’s research arm
• Monash University wins up to A$18m funding to advance intelligence analysis  
• BARD: Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi