Bayesian Networks for Risk Assessment of Public Safety and Security Mobile Service

A new paper by Matti Peltola and Pekka Kekolahti of the Aalto University (School of Electrical Engineering) in Finland uses Bayesian Networks and the AgenaRisk tool to gain a deeper understanding of the availability of Public Safety and Security (PSS) mobile networks and their service under different conditions. The paper abstract states:

A deeper understanding of the availability of Public Safety and Security (PSS) mobile networks and their service under different conditions offers decision makers guidelines on the level of investments required and the directions to take in order to decrease the risks identified. In the study, a risk assessment model for the existing PSS mobile service is implemented for both a dedicated TETRA PSS mobile network as well as for a commercial 2G/3G mobile network operating under the current risk conditions. The probabilistic risk assessment is carried out by constructing a Bayesian Network. According to the analysis, the availability of the dedicated Finnish PSS mobile service is 99.1%. Based on the risk assessment and sensitivity analysis conducted, the most effective elements for decreasing availability risks would be duplication of the transmission links, backup of the power supply and real-time mobile traffic monitoring. With the adjustment of these key control variables, the service availability can be improved up to the level of 99.9%. The investments needed to improve the availability of the PSS mobile service from 99.1 % to 99.9% are profitable only in highly populated areas. The calculated availability of the PSS mobile service based on a purely commercial network is 98.8%. The adoption of a Bayesian Network as a risk assessment method is demonstrated to be a useful way of documenting different expert knowledge as a common belief about the risks, their magnitudes and their effects upon a Finnish PSS mobile service.

Full reference details:

Peltola, M. J., & Kekolahti, P. (2015). Risk Assessment of Public Safety and Security Mobile Service. In 2015 10th International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security (pp. 351–359). IEEE. doi:10.1109/ARES.2015.65