Probability and Risk

Improving public understanding of probability and risk with special emphasis on its application to the law. Why Bayes theorem and Bayesian networks are needed

Monday, 24 January 2022

Computing years of lost life: why actuaries really need to be able to do counterfactual reasoning

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Hugh Osmond recently put out this interesting twitter thread :   Although the average age of death in the UK is around 82, if a person rea...
20 comments:
Thursday, 13 January 2022

Debunking the hypothesis that the "healthy vaccinee" effect explains anomalies in ONS mortality data

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See this update about this work.   In our previous report led by Martin Neil , we showed that ONS England data from November did NOT suppo...
18 comments:
Monday, 3 January 2022

No fancy statistics: a simple plot of vaccination rate against Covid death rate for all countries in the world

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Using the "Our Word in Data" website we have extracted the latest snapshot for each country of total vaccinations per hundred peo...
27 comments:
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  • Norman Fenton
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