Probability and Risk

Improving public understanding of probability and risk with special emphasis on its application to the law. Why Bayes theorem and Bayesian networks are needed

Wednesday, 7 August 2013

The problem with predicting football results - you cannot rely on the data

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Bloomberg Sports have published their predictions for the forthcoming Premiership season (****see update below for actual results) in th...
244 comments:
Friday, 5 July 2013

Flaky DNA (the prosecutor's fallacy yet again and much more to be worried about)

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In August 2012 David Butler (who had been jailed for the 2005 murder of Anne Marie Foy) was freed when it was discovered that the DNA eviden...
96 comments:
Thursday, 11 April 2013

Bayesian networks plagiarism

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If, as they say, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery then we are privileged to have discovered (thanks to a tip off by Philip Leice...
36 comments:
Thursday, 28 February 2013

What chance the next roll of the die is a 3?

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In response to my posting yesterday a colleague posed the following question: The die has rolled 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 in the past. What are the ...
13 comments:
Wednesday, 27 February 2013

"No such thing as probability" in the Law?

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David Spiegelhalter has posted an important article about a recent English Court of Appeal judgement in which the judge essentially suggest...
5 comments:
Tuesday, 15 January 2013

Who is the appropriate expert here: a DNA specialist or a probability specialist?

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An interesting issue about expert evidence has arisen in a case on which I am providing input. It can be summarized as follows: If a DNA ...
1 comment:
Saturday, 17 November 2012

Why machine learning (without expert input) may be doomed to fail

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With the advent of ‘big data’  there has been a presumption (and even excitement) that machine learning, coupled with statistical analysis t...
1 comment:
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  • Martin Neil
  • Norman Fenton
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