Probability and Risk

Improving public understanding of probability and risk with special emphasis on its application to the law. Why Bayes theorem and Bayesian networks are needed

Friday, 20 April 2012

News on DNA evidence

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The Australian High Court has ruled that it is OK to state as - a percentage - the probability of a person NOT sharing a given DNA profile ...
Tuesday, 27 March 2012

Judea Pearl wins Turing Award

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Judea Pearl, who has done more than anybody to develop Bayesian networks and causal reasoning, has won the 2011 Turing Award for work on AI ...

The danger of p-values and statistical significance testing

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I have just come across an article in the Financial Times (it is not new - it was published in 2007) titled " The Ten Things Everyone ...
1 comment:
Thursday, 26 January 2012

Prosecutor Fallacy in Stephen Lawrence case?

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If you believe the 'respectable' media reporting of the Stephen Lawrence case then there were at least two blatant instances of the ...
Tuesday, 8 November 2011

Nonsensical probabilities about asteroid risk

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There is an article in today's Evening Standard in which, rather depressingly, someone who should know better (Roger Highfield, Editor ...
8 comments:
Friday, 4 November 2011

Bayes and the Law: Nature article

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My commentary piece on the role of Bayes in the Law has just appeared in Nature . A pdf of an extended draft on which it was based is here .
Monday, 3 October 2011

Bayes and the Law: Guardian article

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There is an article in the Guardian today that is the result of an interview I had with the journalist Angela Saini. It is about the issue ...
6 comments:
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