tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-64680947485770587162024-03-18T02:49:04.136-07:00Probability and RiskImproving public understanding of probability and risk with special emphasis on its application to the law. Why Bayes theorem and Bayesian networks are neededNorman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.comBlogger218125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-29297474502852875292023-08-23T02:41:00.001-07:002023-08-23T02:41:28.523-07:00<div class="separator"><p data-pm-slice="1 1 []" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ffb4cffd-bb04-4fb6-ba2f-0a75f810d37c_615x617.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":617,"width":615,"resizeWidth":357,"bytes":670775,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null}" height="358.1609756097561" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffb4cffd-bb04-4fb6-ba2f-0a75f810d37c_615x617.png" width="357" /> <br /></p></div><p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> </p><p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Lucy Letby is a nurse who has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/21/lucy-letby-sentence-whole-life-jail-term-for-murdering-seven-babies" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">found guilty</a> of 7 counts of murder and 6 counts of attempted murder of babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital during 2015-16.</p><p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link is-viewable-img image2" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58817c6b-6b9c-46d1-be52-e1f64f94ef7d_958x693.png" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"></source><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/58817c6b-6b9c-46d1-be52-e1f64f94ef7d_958x693.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":693,"width":958,"resizeWidth":534,"bytes":298806,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null}" height="386.28601252609604" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58817c6b-6b9c-46d1-be52-e1f64f94ef7d_958x693.png" width="534" /></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>Although the mainstream media is portraying her as britain’s most evil baby murderer there are a few legal and other researchers who have seriously questioned the quality of evidence in the case and suggested there may have been systemic causes of the baby deaths at the hospital which were nothing to do with Lucy Letby.</p><p>Dr Scott McLachlan is one such researcher. He completed his PhD on the topic of Learning Health Systems under my supervision in 2019. He has been <a href="https://lawhealthandtech.substack.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">following</a> this case for a while now and is especially well qualified to comment on it. That’s because, in addition to his PhD, he not only originally worked as a nurse but also has several legal degrees and is currently a Lecturer in Digital Technologies for Health in the Division of Applied Technologies for Clinical Care with the Faculty of Nursing at Kings College.</p><p>Today I interviewed Scott to discuss his concerns:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/k12f_VFCbtI" width="320" youtube-src-id="k12f_VFCbtI"></iframe></div><br /> <p></p><div class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{"videoId":"k12f_VFCbtI","startTime":null,"endTime":null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" id="youtube2-k12f_VFCbtI"><div class="youtube-inner"></div></div><p>My own interest in this case was piqued by this chart that was used by the prosecution:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link is-viewable-img image2" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32726948-f204-44ff-971d-070e11a030a3_982x2048.jpeg" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"></source><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/32726948-f204-44ff-971d-070e11a030a3_982x2048.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":2048,"width":982,"resizeWidth":494,"bytes":173402,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null}" height="1030.2566191446028" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32726948-f204-44ff-971d-070e11a030a3_982x2048.jpeg" width="494" /></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>I tweeted about this:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b046c0f-5d17-4d19-9ff8-84e6cf63ae65_815x241.jpeg" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"></source><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1b046c0f-5d17-4d19-9ff8-84e6cf63ae65_815x241.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":241,"width":815,"resizeWidth":614,"bytes":47985,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null}" height="181.5631901840491" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b046c0f-5d17-4d19-9ff8-84e6cf63ae65_815x241.jpeg" width="614" /></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Richard Gill has also been expressing <a href="http://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">concerns</a> about the way the case has been handled:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" href="http://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"></source><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/91644b09-e2ba-4382-8692-321e62aa57cf_447x362.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":362,"width":447,"resizeWidth":377,"bytes":110823,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":"http://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/","belowTheFold":false,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null}" height="305.3109619686801" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F91644b09-e2ba-4382-8692-321e62aa57cf_447x362.png" width="377" /></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Richard is concerned that the <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2075-471X/11/5/65/pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">errors</a> in previous 'killer nurse' cases may have been repeated here.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" href="https://www.mdpi.com/2075-471X/11/5/65/pdf" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp"></source><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ff89c3bb-8f94-44ca-b003-8abeeefbd999_1353x1238.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1238,"width":1353,"resizeWidth":624,"bytes":302824,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":"https://www.mdpi.com/2075-471X/11/5/65/pdf","belowTheFold":false,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null}" height="570.9623059866963" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff89c3bb-8f94-44ca-b003-8abeeefbd999_1353x1238.jpeg" width="624" /></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p> </p><p><span class="B2EFF public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>Relevant to that, here is a video I made about the whole issue of the probability the same nurse will be on duty during a series of unusual events (this was related to the <a class="TWoY9 itht3" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2016/03/statistics-of-coincidences-ben-geen.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><u class="D-jZk">Ben Geen case</u></a>):</span></span></p><p>For the medical material about the Lucy Letby trial, the site to visit is <a href="https://rexvlucyletby2023.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Science on Trial </a></p><p>.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/o7yhDJ7PuO4" width="320" youtube-src-id="o7yhDJ7PuO4"></iframe></div><br /><p></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-55655989689459990352022-11-11T10:44:00.014-08:002022-11-11T10:50:33.323-08:00The ONS data on vaccine mortality is not fit for purpose<div data-hook="rcv-block2" type="paragraph"></div><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span></span></span><img alt="" data-load-done="" data-pin-media="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_6f43ec9503eb4ec2b63a676f2969d750~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_878%2Ch_248%2Cal_c,enc_auto/file.png" data-pin-url="https://www.normanfenton.com/post/the-ons-data-on-vaccine-mortality-is-not-fit-for-purpose" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_6f43ec9503eb4ec2b63a676f2969d750~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_816,h_231,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/d76942_6f43ec9503eb4ec2b63a676f2969d750~mv2.png" style="height: 154px; object-fit: cover; object-position: 50% 50%; width: 544px;" /><div data-hook="rcv-block5" type="image"></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-3s6qa"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span></span></span></div><div data-hook="rcv-block3" type="empty-line"></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-f4f6m"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span><br role="presentation" /></span></span></div><div data-hook="rcv-block4" type="empty-line"></div><div class="_3WJnn _2i-Gt _2Ybje" id="new-image10439" style="--dim-height: 248; --dim-width: 878;"></div><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>Following on from <a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30898.07362" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><u class="_3zM-5">our latest report</u></a> highlighting multiple anomalies in the <a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><u class="_3zM-5">most recent ONS covid vaccine mortality surveillance report</u></a> we have written the following self-explanatory letter to the Statistics Regulator <a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="mailto:regulation@statistics.gov.uk" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><u class="_3zM-5">(regulation@statistics.gov.uk):</u></a></span></span><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span> <br /></span></span><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-52gke" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>Dear Sir/Madam,</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block7" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="paragraph"></div><div data-hook="rcv-block8" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="empty-line"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-6qi4c" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>Since the ONS began producing its covid vaccine mortality surveillance reports in 2021, we have been highlighting various anomalies in their datasets. This includes strong evidence that many of those dying shortly after vaccination were being misclassified as unvaccinated (<a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://doi.org/http:/dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248</a>) and systematic undercounting of deaths occurring within first two weeks of vaccination (<a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248</a>).</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block9" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="paragraph"></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-44s74" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span></span></span></div><div data-hook="rcv-block10" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="empty-line"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-4di95" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>We are especially concerned about the latest ONS dataset (<a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland</a>) and have produced a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30898.07362" target="_blank">detailed analysis which highlights the multiple glaring anomalies in it</a>. </span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block11" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="paragraph"></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-fdt4" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span></span></span></div><div data-hook="rcv-block12" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="empty-line"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-4sva8" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>We show that, in addition to further definitive evidence of the misclassification and missing deaths, there is: a) gross underestimation of the population proportion unvaccinated, and b) mortality rates that are both nonsensical in various categories and completely incompatible with historical rates. </span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block13" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="paragraph"></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-1tf81" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span></span></span></div><div data-hook="rcv-block14" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="empty-line"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-fj236" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>We believe that there are multiple violations of your code of practice (<a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://code.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Code-of-Practice-for-Statistics-REVISED.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://code.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Code-of-Practice-for-Statistics-REVISED.pdf</a>). In particular, the dataset breaches the Quality and Value criteria numbered: Q 1.1, Q1.4 – 1.7, Q 2.4, Q 2.5, Q 3.2 – 3.5, V 1.1, V 3.2 – 3.3.</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block15" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="paragraph"></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-39due" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span></span></span></div><div data-hook="rcv-block16" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="empty-line"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-21ghq" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>All of the anomalies in the dataset introduce bias in favour of analyses supporting vaccine ‘safety and efficacy’. The fact that these data are being used as continued justification for the efficacy and safety of the covid vaccines is therefore now a matter of national concern and scandal. We believe that an investigation into how and why the ONS dataset is so flawed and corrupted is required. In the meantime, we call for </span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block17" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="paragraph"></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-2ba30" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span></span></span></div><div data-hook="rcv-block18" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="empty-line"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth2 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-603er" style="margin-left: 80px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>1. the public withdrawal of the ONS dataset and </span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block19" style="margin-left: 80px; text-align: left;" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth2 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-aae49" style="margin-left: 80px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>2. the retraction of any claims made by others that are based upon it.</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block20" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="paragraph"></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-3kg51" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span></span></span></div><div data-hook="rcv-block21" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="empty-line"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-7i5mi" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>Yours</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block22" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="paragraph"></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-f6a80" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span></span></span></div><div data-hook="rcv-block23" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;" type="empty-line"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-3jkng" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span> Norman Fenton, Martin Neil, Clare Craig and Scott McLachlan</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block24" type="paragraph"></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-99ffl"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"></span></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-99ffl"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"></span></div><div class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-99ffl"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span></span></span></div><div data-hook="rcv-block25" type="empty-line"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-d1e95"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span> </span></span></p><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-d1e95"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>A slightly updated version of our report (with more detailed reference citations than the version on ResearchGate) is <a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://d7694293-ffb8-4ed0-a014-3581d49070e4.usrfiles.com/ugd/d76942_bd64e0ebb4754477afd3d9f00bb3dc0f.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><u class="_3zM-5">here</u></a>.</span></span></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-23830656690320464892022-08-07T11:02:00.008-07:002022-08-17T07:57:08.233-07:00“Open a Public Inquiry into Covid-19 Vaccine Safety”: Response to the UK Government’s Response<h4 style="text-align: left;"><b></b></h4><h4 style="text-align: left;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZxarRSW5CscvZYYeTzCkMJRTaS6i4PZy274bwGB_p_8mRNw_RHofMEcguvJP34-MNKOI6L7MR0JEZb-X6tdTrwjke7aI5BiN2ScOpqyDwubBCH4mqpSJCXT_F-Qmjw3ZCV72p7oC8JMo5x2k_BrlaVrHKj3bHPlGwFz3IxjotWYlxgHvlcVD3c7LwNw/s1280/vaccination-2722937_1280.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1280" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZxarRSW5CscvZYYeTzCkMJRTaS6i4PZy274bwGB_p_8mRNw_RHofMEcguvJP34-MNKOI6L7MR0JEZb-X6tdTrwjke7aI5BiN2ScOpqyDwubBCH4mqpSJCXT_F-Qmjw3ZCV72p7oC8JMo5x2k_BrlaVrHKj3bHPlGwFz3IxjotWYlxgHvlcVD3c7LwNw/s320/vaccination-2722937_1280.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /></b></h4><h4 style="text-align: left;"><b> <i>This article reproduced with the kind permission of Axel McFarlane</i></b></h4><h4 style="text-align: left;"><b>Our Response to the UK Government’s Response to the UK Government and Parliament Petition: “Open a Public Inquiry into Covid-19 Vaccine Safety”</b></h4><p style="text-align: center;">By Axel McFarlane and Mike Baker</p><p><br />The Government response, shown in italics, has been broken up into paragraphs and followed by our response respectively:</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>“The Government has commissioned a public inquiry into the COVID-19 pandemic and<br />has no plans for a separate inquiry on vaccine safety. The safety of COVID-19 vaccines is<br />monitored by the Medicines Healthcare and Regulatory products Agency (MHRA).”</i></p><p>The government commissioned public inquiry into the COVID-19 pandemic would not appear to include any investigation into possible vaccine related causes behind the latest observed data on the various reported Adverse Events, Non-Covid Excess Deaths, the rise in Cardio-Vascular issues or the recent sudden decline in Live Birth Rates. The Terms of Reference [1] for the COVID-19 Public Inquiry do not cover vaccines at all, which highlights the need for a separate inquiry into vaccine safety. The MHRA [2] is “the executive Agency of the Department of Health and Social Care that acts on behalf of the Ministers to protect and promote public health and patient safety, by ensuring that healthcare products meet appropriate standards of safety, quality and efficacy”, so as a public body, its effectiveness in carrying out its responsibility to ensure COVID-19 vaccine safety is a legitimate subject for public inquiry.</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>“The MHRA has authorised COVID-19 vaccine supply following a rigorous review of their safety, quality and efficacy. The clinical trials of the vaccines have shown them to be effective and acceptably safe”</i></p><p>Based on information released by the vaccine manufacturers, the clinical trials of the vaccines have been discovered to be flawed. In the case of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine it can be observed from Pfizer’s own clinical trials data that whilst a slight improvement in Covid-19 outcomes was observed shortly after the doses, the All Cause Mortality of the vaccinated group was worse than in the placebo group. This means that there must be fatal adverse events that lead to a net negative life saving benefit of their vaccine. The initial MHRA Emergency Use Authorisations (EUAs) were based entirely on information provided by the manufacturers (Pfizer review here [3]). As was widely-reported at the time, the Phase 3 large-scale trials were intended to last until 2023, but were curtailed after only 2 months and the participants un-blinded, violating the study protocol and making any randomised control trial analysis of medium/long-term effects impossible. This alone should have prevented rollout of the product to the wider population, considering the low risk of Covid-19 to the majority of the population and the fact that the vaccines have turned out to be not at all effective in reducing transmission. Further issues, known at the time and mentioned but dismissed in the report, include:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>311 (1.4%) vaccine recipients vs 61 (0.3%) placebo recipients were excluded from the trial for “protocol deviations” (page 30). There is an infinitesimal probability of this happening by chance, but no explanation is given. The most likely cause, an adverse reaction causing the participant to withdraw from the trial, would have shown that the vaccine had a highly-negative safety profile.</li><li>78% of participants were under 65, and all were healthy (although 46% had at least one co-morbidity, it seems that very few had more than one), but the initial target demographic was elderly people with multiple co-morbidities (page 30). In fact, for individuals over 75, the vaccine efficacy confidence interval was [-0.13, 1.00], meaning that there is a significantly greater than 5% probability that the vaccine makes the over-75s <i><b>more </b></i>likely to catch Covid (page 48). Following standard statistical methodology, this means that the null hypothesis, that the treatment has no benefit for the over-75s, should have been accepted.</li><li>The primary endpoint (mild Covid symptoms) was based on self-reporting, followed up by a Nucleic Acid Amplification Test (NAAT) (page 28). However, this is subject to (conscious or unconscious) bias if the researcher knows or suspects which arm (vaccine or placebo) the participant is in. This was later confirmed by the British Medical Journal’s report [4] on the whistle-blower complaint of Brook Jackson, an operations manager at Ventavia, a contractor carrying out the trials for Pfizer, describing how researchers were unblinded and patients’ adverse reports ignored or falsified.</li><li>The secondary endpoint (severe Covid) was never reached, with 1 case in the vaccine arm vs 3 cases (and no deaths) in the placebo arm, which in itself shows that Covid-19 was not the deadly disease it was purported to be (page 32).</li><li>The much-quoted 95% vaccine efficacy was based on 8 participants with Covid symptoms in the vaccine arm, vs 162 in the placebo arm (page 32). However, this is relative risk reduction (RRR) – absolute risk reduction (ARR), not quoted anywhere in the paper, is a less-impressive 0.88% [5].</li></ul><p>Any of these points taken individually, but certainly in total, should have been sufficient for the MHRA to refuse an EUA <i><b>at the time</b></i>, until more and better data became available. Why this wasn’t done is a legitimate subject for public inquiry.<br /></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>“However, as part of its statutory functions, the MHRA continually monitors the use of the vaccines to ensure their benefits continue to outweigh any risks. This is a requirement for all authorised medicines and vaccines in the UK. This monitoring strategy is continuous, proactive and based on a wide range of information sources, with a dedicated team of scientists reviewing information daily to look for safety issues or unexpected events.</i></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The MHRA operates the Yellow Card scheme to collect and monitor information on suspected safety concerns or incidents involving vaccines, medicines, medical devices, and e-cigarettes. The scheme relies on voluntary reporting of suspected adverse incidents by healthcare professionals and members of the public. The scheme is designed to provide an early warning that the safety of a product may require further investigation.”</i></p><p>The scheme relies on voluntary reporting, meaning that the number of adverse incidents is likely to be significantly under-reported. A US Government-commissioned study [6] actively following up patients for 30 days after vaccination concluded that fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events were reported to VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System), the US equivalent to the Yellow Card scheme. The latest MHRA Summary [7] report repeatedly states (at least 14 times) that an adverse event may be only coincidentally related to a vaccination, yet nowhere does it even mention, let alone attempt to estimate, this Under-Reporting Factor (URF). An MHRA drug safety update from 2019 [8] estimated that only 10% of serious adverse events, and 2 to 4% of less serious events, are reported (so a URF of at least 10), indicating that they are well-aware of the issue, but have chosen to ignore it in their summary reports.</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>“Up to and including 15 December 2021, the MHRA received and analysed: 145,446 </i><i>Adverse Event reports (ADRs) from people who have received the Pfizer/BioNTech </i><i>vaccine; 240,065 UK reports of suspected ADRs to the AstraZeneca vaccine; 24,721 UK </i><i>reports of suspected ADRs to the Moderna vaccine. For context, up to same date, </i><i>approximately 46.4 million Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccines, 50 million AstraZeneca vaccines </i><i>and 2.8 million Moderna doses had been administered as first and second doses.”</i></p><p>This data is now out of date. This level of Adverse Events as reported up to 15th December 2021 is very high when compared to other vaccines using traditional technology and indicates an urgent need for further investigation. From the latest MHRA summary report (page 6): “As of 13 July 2022, for the UK, 172,218 Yellow Cards have been reported for the COVID-19 Vaccine Pfizer/BioNTech, 245,903 have been reported for the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca, 40,068 for the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna and 1,779 have been reported where the brand of the vaccine was not specified.” – a total of 459,968 ADRs. Assuming MHRA’s very conservative URF of 10, this would mean 4 to 5 million adverse events caused by the Covid vaccines. <br /></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>“The overwhelming majority of these reports relate to injection-site reactions (sore arm for example) and generalised symptoms such as ‘flu-like’ illness, headache, chills, fatigue (tiredness), nausea (feeling sick), fever, dizziness, weakness, aching muscles, and rapid heartbeat. Generally, these happen shortly after the vaccination and are not associated with more serious or lasting illness. These types of reactions reflect the normal immune response triggered by the body to the vaccines. They are typically seen with most types of vaccine and tend to resolve within a day or two.”</i></p><p>This paragraph hasn’t changed in six months (pages 6-7 of latest MHRA Summary report, and repeated again on page 16). The government response fails to mention deaths caused by or occurring within a few weeks of administration of the vaccine doses. While the majority of ADRs may be less serious, some are extremely serious, including 2,213 deaths (page 37), again likely under-reported by a factor of 10 or more. The 1976 US swine flu vaccination campaign was halted after 50 deaths – why has this (vastly-underestimated) figure of over 2,000 deaths not led to a halt to this one? Or as in the case of the withdrawal of Pandremix in the UK, a vaccine that was in 2009 ‘fast tracked’ out to the general public without the usual clinical trials having been completed, but was withdrawn after a reported 3807 adverse events 1138 of which were serious [9,10,11] and <i><b>47 of which were fatal</b></i>.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Between 1st January 2001 and 25th August 2021, only 404 deaths were reported to the MHRA Yellow Card system for <i><b>all </b></i>other vaccines [12], meaning that Covid vaccine deaths are being reported at <i><b>over 70 times the rate</b></i> [13] of all other vaccines combined – if that isn’t a safety signal, then what is?</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>“The continuous review of available evidence from UK Yellow Card reports of suspected </i><i>side-effects to the vaccines and other healthcare data does not suggest that the COVID-</i><i>19 vaccines increase the risk of cardiovascular events such as heart attacks.”</i> <br /></p><p>No evidence is given for this assertion; however the most recent reports (up to 13th July 2022) of Yellow Card events [14,15,16,17] give a total of 28,843 cardiovascular ADRs, including 396 deaths. Even ignoring the URF, the number of adverse events is far higher than the background rate of 160 per million per year, or about 8,000 per year assuming 50 million vaccinees (page 35). The data strongly suggests a possible causal link between the vaccines and cardiovascular events such as heart attacks. If the government believes these adverse events aren’t caused by the vaccines, why don’t they investigate them to find the true cause?</p><p></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>“The benefits of the vaccines in preventing COVID-19 and serious complications associated with COVID-19 continue to far outweigh the risks in the majority of patients.”</i></p><p>No evidence at all is given for this assertion, which should form the crux of the government’s argument in refusing to commission an inquiry into Covid vaccine safety. However, there is an overwhelming body of evidence to the contrary. According to the most recent data [18] from the Office of National Statistics, the number of deaths in England and Wales in Week 29 (up to 22nd July 2022) was 10,978, or 1,680 (18.1%) above the 5-year average. Only 463 deaths had Covid-19 recorded as the underlying<br />cause, meaning that even assuming all the “Covid-19” deaths were actually Covid-19 (and excess) deaths, the weekly death rate was still (1,680 – 463) / (10,978 – 1,680) =13.1% above the 5-year average. This has been going on week after week, month after month throughout this year. The prime suspect for this elevated death toll must be the vaccines (what else could it be?), and the onus is on the manufacturers, the MHRA and the government to prove otherwise.<br /></p><p>“The majority of patients” is a very small subset of the total number of recipients of the vaccine doses who are all at risk from Adverse Events, some serious. ONS data shows that only a very small minority of the UK population are at risk of becoming a Covid-19 “patient” rather than just suffering a mild case that requires no treatment. Therefore the Risk / Benefit Ratio is much higher than that suggested in the government response.</p><p></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>“However, the MHRA has identified the rare occurrence of myocarditis and pericarditis (both inflammatory conditions of the heart) following vaccination against COVID-19. There has been a consistent pattern of higher reporting of these rare, suspected events with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine Moderna vaccine, and of these occurring more frequently in males. Following analysis combined with advice from the Commission on human Medicines, the product information for the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccines was updated to inform of these reports and advise healthcare professionals and patients to be aware of important symptoms for myocarditis and pericarditis. These reports are very rare, with the overall reporting rate across all age groups as follows: Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccine: For suspected myocarditis (including viral myocarditis) the reporting rate is 12 reports per million doses, and for suspected pericarditis (including viral pericarditis and infective pericarditis) the overall reporting rate is 8 reports per million doses.</i></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Moderna Vaccine: The overall reporting rate for suspected myocarditis is 42 per million doses and for suspected pericarditis is 24 per million doses. AstraZeneca Vaccine: The overall reporting rate for suspected myocarditis (including viral myocarditis and infectious myocarditis) is 4 per million doses and for suspected pericarditis (including viral pericarditis) is 4 per million doses. These events reported are typically mild with individuals usually recovering within a<br />short time with standard treatment and rest.”</i></p><p>Myocarditis and Pericarditis are never “mild” conditions because the majority of patients are left with permanent damage to heart tissue that does not repair itself. Also, the exclusive focus on myocarditis and pericarditis while ignoring all other adverse events, for example blood disorders such as thrombocytopenia, is very strange, and seems to be an attempt to suggest that heart disease is the only serious negative consequence of the vaccines. This is not to downplay the deadly danger of heart disease – a canonical review [19] of the medical literature undertaken before the “fact checkers” got to work reported that “The Myocarditis Treatment Trial reported mortality rates for biopsy-verified myocarditis of 20% and 56% at 1 year and 4.3 years, respectively. These outcomes are similar to the Mayo Clinic’s observational data of 5-year survival rates that approximate 50%. Survival with giant cell myocarditis is substantially lower, with <20% of patients surviving 5 years.” So to claim that “These events reported are typically mild with individuals usually recovering within a short time with standard treatment and rest” is entirely false.</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>“The MHRA will continue to closely monitor reports of suspected myocarditis and pericarditis with all of the currently authorised COVID-19 vaccines, as it continues to do with any concerns that the Yellow Card Scheme might raise. Vaccines are the best way to protect people from COVID-19 and have already saved tens of thousands of lives.”</i></p><p>A vaccine with a negative net benefit in terms of All Cause Mortality cannot be saving “tens of thousands of lives”. No evidence is presented to show that the vaccines have saved any lives at all, and all the evidence points in the opposite direction, as demonstrated by the otherwise-inexplicable increase in all-cause mortality over the last year.</p><p>A public inquiry needs to look at all aspects of Covid-19 vaccine safety, including whether the MHRA regulators have done their job properly and effectively or whether they have failed in their statutory duties. Because the Covid-19 vaccines have not been officially licensed (not due for consideration until 2023) and have only been granted emergency authorisation, it was inadequate to use the old yellow card reporting system and that instead every individual dose administered should have been reported back on. The government are passing on their regulatory responsibilities to the MHRA and ignoring the fact that they are the ultimate regulators and have to ensure the MHRA have done every aspect of their job to the highest of standards. The government is the regulator of the MHRA yet they are not taking such responsibilities seriously. <br /></p><p>The government’s attempted justification for refusing a public inquiry into vaccine safety simply serves to demonstrate why such an inquiry, properly-constituted with representatives and terms of reference acceptable to all sides, is urgently necessary.</p><p><br />Axel McFarlane<br />Mike Baker<br />4th August 2022</p><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-f8p7m"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[1] https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Covid-19-Inquiry-
Terms-of-Reference-Final.pdf</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block58" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-2jo4l"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[2] https://yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk/information </span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block59" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-8ehtj"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[3] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attach
ment_data/file/997584/COVID-19_mRNA_Vaccine_BNT162b2__UKPAR___PFIZER_BIONTECH_ext_of_indication_11.6.2021.pdf</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block60" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-eh64s"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[4] https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2635</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block61" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-279ve"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[5] (162/17511 – 8/17411)*100 = 0.88% (from figures on page 32 of report)
[6] https://digital.ahrq.gov/sites/default/files/docs/publication/r18hs017045-lazarusfinal-
report-2011.pdf</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block62" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-8ach3"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[7] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attach
ment_data/file/1093243/Coronavirus_vaccine_-_summary_of_Yellow_Card_reporting_DLP_13.07.2022.pdf
[8] https://www.gov.uk/drug-safety-update/yellow-card-please-help-to-reverse-the-decline-in-reporting-of-suspected-adverse-drug-reactions</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block63" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-5psoj"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[9] https://www.bmj.com/content/362/bmj.k3948.full
[10] https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2017-03-08/debates/438e7ae2-6025-4772-85be-76920bdf8be5/pandemrixvaccinecompensation</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block64" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-ddoka"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[11] https://www.contagionlive.com/view/high-rates-of-adverse-events-linked-with-2009-h1n1-pandemic-vaccine
[12] https://expose-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/FOI-21-907-Response-
1.pdf</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block65" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-6n0ld"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[13] (2213 deaths over 19 months) / (404 deaths over 248 months)</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block66" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-2eo8m"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[14] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1093230/COVID-19_Pfizer-BioNTech_Vaccine_Analysis_Print_DLP_13.07.2022.pdf</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block67" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-be7fk"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[15] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1093231/COVID-19_AstraZeneca_Vaccine_Analysis_Print_DLP_13.07.2022.pdf</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block68" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-4pl89"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[16] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1093232/COVID-19_Moderna_Vaccine_Analysis_Print_DLP_13.07.2022.pdf
[17] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1093233/COVID-19_Brand_Unspecified_Vaccine_Analysis_Print_DLP_13.07.2022.pdf
[18] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages
/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending2
2july2022</span></span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block69" type="paragraph"></div><p class="mm8Nw _1j-51 roLFQS _1FoOD _3M0Fe Z63qyL roLFQS public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 fixed-tab-size public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-ai73o"><span class="_2PHJq public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr"><span>[19] https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.105.584532 </span></span></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-23646181425307792242022-07-29T10:05:00.004-07:002022-07-29T10:05:50.030-07:00How Wikipedia defames and delegitimizes anybody raising concerns against the WHO narrative on Covid<p class="MsoNormal">Meet Alex Brown ("Alexbrn" on Wikipedia - this is <a href="https://twitter.com/al3xbrown" target="_blank">his own profile picture on twitter</a>). </p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlDGcmmP7hGfcjpF-EKWwl9z3eORo-y_nJsykJIpJkULkfPhN3bZ0sbjP2sk_eRAdfzwk3ztx8fQ44qdN22BsKtFq7Wvy4VSxL5b2vkAzMJYwXSEB4pgY4eG9KAxY2B0sGNrucg8y7OWFr8yn8h_aTD-0AHQ1hj3vEDxyY16Y9rjti4sReo252DHYsXA/s445/alex.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="421" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlDGcmmP7hGfcjpF-EKWwl9z3eORo-y_nJsykJIpJkULkfPhN3bZ0sbjP2sk_eRAdfzwk3ztx8fQ44qdN22BsKtFq7Wvy4VSxL5b2vkAzMJYwXSEB4pgY4eG9KAxY2B0sGNrucg8y7OWFr8yn8h_aTD-0AHQ1hj3vEDxyY16Y9rjti4sReo252DHYsXA/s320/alex.png" width="303" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">He is a retired Computer programmer who has a
PhD in English. But apparently that is sufficient to make him the ultimate arbiter of the ‘truth’ on Covid-19. He is the key member of a very small clique of Wikipedia ‘editors’ responsible for ensuring that any member of the public looking to Wikipedia for
information on the many legitimate concerns about the ‘official’ covid
narrative will find nothing other than smears against those raising such
concerns. This clique act as ‘gatekeepers’ of the covid narrative, and have
free reign to edit these personal pages. Not only do they insert complete lies,
but they then delete any attempts to correct the lies and are able to block all
attempts by others to provide corrections. </p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p><p>The full story and how Alexbrn hacked Norman Fenton's Wikipedia entry is <a href="https://www.normanfenton.com/post/how-wikipedia-defames-and-delegitimizes-anybody-raising-concerns-against-the-who-narrative-on-covid" target="_blank">here</a>.<br /></p><p> <br /></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-43875643569294999882022-07-22T12:13:00.022-07:002022-07-25T05:01:52.353-07:00A critique of the BBC2 documentary “Unvaccinated” <p>Before this programme was screened on 20 July 2022 promotional
material from the BBC and in newspaper articles such as <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11020717/Did-BBC-team-convince-seven-anti-vaxxers-Covid-jab.html" target="_blank">this</a> suggested it was going to be extremely biased and inaccurate.
</p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyFZO-m0VNzpm102ijAYLyozdf6ugyPmF1yyQGMgSkX_iCUE9hZgmsTB5o-xnrSENb-vDFeGt7CZFry05DGbNZoFtUgqTY2cZyvGCulQOjJXVw_J6_0WR11youYoAGlGYfkdtH3m57PsCAW3f-OBDm9yUi5yese3-2JabwiLyPpWvCZG8ZAel1ryvLEA/s1402/unvaxxed1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="953" data-original-width="1402" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyFZO-m0VNzpm102ijAYLyozdf6ugyPmF1yyQGMgSkX_iCUE9hZgmsTB5o-xnrSENb-vDFeGt7CZFry05DGbNZoFtUgqTY2cZyvGCulQOjJXVw_J6_0WR11youYoAGlGYfkdtH3m57PsCAW3f-OBDm9yUi5yese3-2JabwiLyPpWvCZG8ZAel1ryvLEA/w640-h436/unvaxxed1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Based on this publicity material we already wrote articles
<a href="https://www.normanfenton.com/post/bbc-wants-to-understand-why-8-of-the-population-remains-unvaccinated-against-covid" target="_blank">first criticizing the claim that only 8% of the UK adult population was unvaccinated</a> and then <a href="https://www.normanfenton.com/post/bbc-s-independent-vaccine-expert-just-happens-to-be-in-charge-of-pfizer-s-vaccine-centre" target="_blank">highlighting the fact that the publicity material failed to reveal the blatant conflicts of interest of the key ‘experts’ used in the programme to convince the seven unvaccinated participants to get vaccinated</a>.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Our pre-screening articles and tweets about the forthcoming
programme were very widely read and one of the participants <a href="https://twitter.com/nazarinveronica" target="_blank">Nazarin</a> contacted
us to express her serious concerns about the way the programme was made – and how
it might be edited – and to confirm that the participants were indeed not informed
of the experts’ conflicts of interest (this is covered well <a href="https://threadsirish.substack.com/p/prof-hannah-fry-who-presented-bbc" target="_blank">in this article by </a><a href="https://threadsirish.substack.com/p/prof-hannah-fry-who-presented-bbc" target="_blank">threadsirish</a>). (<i>Note: see update below on the thoughts of another participant who contacted us</i>). Her
subsequent tweets, such as the following, made clear her extreme concerns about the programme even
before it was screened:</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoG0AT5rBplKCGqOz4z7dfh6JdnNkNdxGLHuYV2YVY2bPwdKVnHArU2aIA0JCvH3TVpmN3tjO4zwnQ8kDjqdzp3aPetv8h7YDPml359Lw7a1vx4IjJM0qxDF3wKcjnANZSz1bwhITEltf88gzphR73iJy4zNjfjxihFFBfy8teC7wxYxTEnpMQfKAw1w/s918/unvaxxed2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="918" height="568" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoG0AT5rBplKCGqOz4z7dfh6JdnNkNdxGLHuYV2YVY2bPwdKVnHArU2aIA0JCvH3TVpmN3tjO4zwnQ8kDjqdzp3aPetv8h7YDPml359Lw7a1vx4IjJM0qxDF3wKcjnANZSz1bwhITEltf88gzphR73iJy4zNjfjxihFFBfy8teC7wxYxTEnpMQfKAw1w/w640-h568/unvaxxed2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The programme turned out to be every bit as bad and biased
as feared.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Many of the problems have been highlighted by the especially
vocal participants <a href="https://twitter.com/nazarinveronica" target="_blank">Nazarin</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/vickyborman" target="_blank">Vicky</a> (see their interviews with <a href="https://twitter.com/nazarinveronica/status/1550397088126713856" target="_blank">Dan Wooton</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/SoniaPoulton/status/1550436419981697027" target="_blank">Sonia Poulton</a>). Below
we summarise our key concerns and what was missing.</p>
<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Claim of 4 million UK
adults unvaccinated</b>: Despite us <a href="https://www.normanfenton.com/post/bbc-wants-to-understand-why-8-of-the-population-remains-unvaccinated-against-covid" target="_blank">alerting the BBC to this error (which led them to change their website description)</a> this claim (i.e. that only 8% of
adults were unvaccinated) was right up front. It set the context suggesting that
this was only a tiny crazed minority. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
what was really interesting is that the presenter <a name="_Hlk109325732"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk109325707;">Hannah Fry stated
that, as part of the programme research, they did a survey of 2,500 people
about their views on vaccination and she was surprised to discover that 600
were unvaccinated. If the sample was representative of UK adults (and there was
no suggestion it was not) then that means 24% of UK adults are unvaccinated,
which is even higher than the figure we estimate, and blows apart the BBC’s
ludicrous 8% claim. <i>(<b>UPDATE</b></i></span></a><i><span class="r-18u37iz"> <a class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1cvl2hr r-1loqt21 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-1ny4l3l r-1ddef8g r-tjvw6i r-qvutc0" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/NakedEmperorUK" role="link">@NakedEmperorUK</a></span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"> points out that <a href="https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/exploring-attitudes-towards-covid-19-vaccinations-for-stv/" target="_blank">the survey was indeed representative of the population</a> and that the actual number </span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">never vaccinated was 664 out of 2570 - i.e. 26%. This provides further evidence of what we have claimed for a long time: The ONS is massively underestimating the proportion of unvaccinated.)</span></i><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></li><li><b>Failure to disclose the
Pfizer links of the two key experts (Finn and Khalil) on the programme</b>: As
feared the programme did not inform either the participants or the viewers of
the major conflicts of interest of the key experts. Prof Adam Finn (Bristol University)
was the expert chosen to explained what the vaccines were and why they were
safe; but he is the leader of the Pfizer Centre of Excellence for Epidemiology
of Vaccine-preventable Diseases - set up with an initial £4.6 million
investment in May 2021. He even implied he was independent when he said (about
the US pharma companies Pfizer and Moderna) that he ‘acted as a buffer between
them and the public’. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Asma Khalil was
the expert chosen to explain why it was important for pregnant women to get the
vaccination. But Asma Khalil is the PI of the Pfizer covid vaccination in
pregnancy trial. Another expert, psychologist<br />
Clarissa Simas has had many Bill and Malinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) grants. </li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><b>Failure to disclose
background to FullFact</b>.<b>org</b>: The CEO Will Moy was brought in to claim
that vaccine hesitancy was all due to online ‘misinformation’. But fullfact have
received massive funding by organisations like Google and Facebook to present
precisely the biased narrative that all the covid ‘misinformation’ is coming
from ‘antivaxxers and conspiracy theorists’ and they have shown no interest in
pointing out the far greater volume of misinformation put out by governments, the
pharma companies and their supporters. They only ‘fact check’ information that counters
the ‘standard narrative’ and avoid checking obvious misinformation claims of vaccine
efficacy and safety. For some background on how bad fullfact are see <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/10/covid-19-claims-and-ludicrous-fact.html" target="_blank">this article</a>. <br /></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><b>No challenge to the many
explicit false claims made</b>: Among the most outrageous and demonstrably
false claims that went unchallenged were: 1) Adam Finn claimed that people had
stronger immunity from the vaccination than from having been infected; 2) Asma
Khalil claimed the vaccination was not only completely safe for pregnant women
but actually reduced the risk of miscarriage by 15% (but look at <a href="https://viralimmunologist.substack.com/p/of-29-pregnant-women-that-had-received" target="_blank">what was in the Pfizer trial</a> with more <a href="https://arkmedic.substack.com/p/the-curious-case-of-the-miscalculated" target="_blank">here</a>). </li><li><b>The jellybeans game: </b>Hannah
Fry tried to create the impression that only 1 in 33,000 had a serious adverse
reaction by mischievously picking that number as the incidence of myocarditis, which
she claims was by the most common serious adverse reaction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Showing what 33,000 jellybeans looked like –
only one of which was ‘bad’ – was supposed to show how ‘rare’ adverse reactions
to the vaccines were. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the most recent
relevant data (from <a href="https://dailysceptic.org/2022/07/21/german-government-acknowledges-covid-vaccines-cause-serious-injury-for-one-in-5000-doses-but-its-own-data-show-the-real-rate-is-one-in-300-doses/" target="_blank">the German government</a>) actually suggest as many as 1 in 300 serious adverse reactions <i><b>per dose</b></i> after
the vaccine. Assuming independence between
doses this means that a triple vaccinated person has an approximate probability
of 1 in a 100 of getting a serious adverse reaction and for a person doubled <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>boosted this rises to 1 in 75. And, as<b> </b>somebody on twitter said “what if
all the bad jelly beans were in one big batch and all the others weren’t ‘good
jelly beans’ – we just didn’t know yet”. <br clear="all" style="break-before: page; mso-special-character: line-break; page-break-before: always;" />
</li><li><b>No mention of the
failure of the vaccination to stop infection or transmission of covid</b></li><li><b>Failure to humanize any
actual vaccination victims.</b> The programme spoke about actual unvaccinated people
dying from covid, but used the bad jelly beans to represent vaccination victims.
Why didn’t they mention actual victims like the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-58330796" target="_blank">BBC’s own Lisa Shaw</a>? or <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-61885899" target="_blank">Vicky Spit's husband Zion</a>?<br /></li><li><b>The ludicrous and
misleading MMR vaccination anecdote: </b>In response<b> </b>to the 9-page
Pfizer report of adverse reactions, Hannah Fry used a bizarre anecdote to
downplay its impact. This imagined a Doctor about to give the MMR jab to a
child when the phone rings; there is a 50:50 chance he picks up the phone before giving
the jab. He picks up the phone and during the call the child has a fit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saying there was a 50:50 chance the doctor
picks up the phone or gives the jab deliberately creates the false impression
that there is also a 50:50 chance any adverse reaction after a vaccination is
purely coincidental.</li><li><span dir="LTR"></span><b>No challenge to the
powerful claim that 20 out of 21 ICU patients at St Georges’s hospital in Dec
2021 were unvaccinated</b>: all evidence of national ICU data suggests vaccinated
are now disproportionally hospitalized with covid, so this claim was either false/exaggerated
or an unbelievable outlier. Much more likely, the ‘unvaccinated’ were defined
as ‘not fully boosted’ rather than ‘never vaccinated as was implied.</li><li><b>Failure to mention
reported data on adverse reactions</b>: Systems like VAERS in the US and
YellowCard in the UK make it difficult to report adverse reactions and so are
widely believed to massively underestimate true numbers. Yet, <a href="https://openvaers.com/" target="_blank">in VAERS alone (mainly US) as of 8/7/22 there were 1,341,605 covid vaccine adverse reactionsof which 29,460 were deaths</a>. In all 32 years of VAERS reporting a total of only
9,754 deaths (and 878,053 adverse events) were recorded for ALL OTHER vaccines
combined. So, in just 18 months, 3 times as many deaths for covid vaccines
have been recorded than in 32 years combined for all other vaccines.</li><li><b>No mention of the true
risk of covid</b> <b>based on world wide data</b>: Except for those with
multiple comorbidities (who are not given appropriate early treatments) Covid poses very
little risk of hospitalization and death. Young people are at essentially zero
risk of dying due to Covid.</li><li><b>No mention of the way
covid data are by definition fixed to exaggerate cases numbers,
hospitalizations,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>deaths as well as vaccine
efficacy and safety</b>. Specifically:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>any
person admitted to hospital who had a PCR positive within 14 days prior <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>– or who tests PCR positive after
hospitalization’ – is classified as a covid hospitalization even if the reason
for hospitalization was unrelated to covid; any person who dies within 28 days
of PCR positive test<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is classified as a
covid death irrespective of the true cause of death; any person who contracts
covid or who suffers adverse reaction inside 14 days of vaccinaion is
classified as ‘unvaccinated’. </li><li><b>No mention of lack of
long-term safety data: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b>In
particular,<b> </b>the failure of the Pfizer trial to provide this was glossed
over suggesting that their people were so dedicated that the worked much faster
than for any previous vaccine to ensure a high quality and safe product.</li><li><b>No mention of all the
protocol violations now known in the main Pfizer trial. </b>Even with the
violations, Pfizer’s their own data showed more deaths in vaccine arm than
placebo arm and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the risk of serious
adverse event in the vaccinated was greater than risk of covid hospitalization
in the unvaccinated.</li><li><b>No mention of
international data showing strong evidence the vaccine is neither effective nor
safe: </b>Countries <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2022/01/no-fancy-statistics-simply-plot-of.html " target="_blank">with lowest vaccination rates have lowest covid death rates</a>;
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28055.09124" target="_blank">spikes in all-cause deaths happen after vaccination dose rollouts</a>; <a href="https://andrewmadry.substack.com/p/follow-up-to-vaccine-effectiveness" target="_blank">countrieswith highest vaccination rates have highest covid rates</a> and are experiencing
non-covid excess death increases; and falling birth rates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is no reliable evidence anywhere in world that
vaccinated people have lower all-cause mortality than unvaccinated. </li><li><span dir="LTR"></span><b>What was Hannah Fry’s
involvement in the stat/maths modelling:</b> Near the start of the programme
Hannah stated that she had been involved in the stats/math modelling that
‘helped get us out of lockdown’. This was a surprising claim. It’s the first we
had heard that such modelling was formally used to get us out of lockdown. If
she was involved in such modelling, she was presumably also involved in the
modelling that took us INTO lockdown (curiously nobody wants to be associated
with that any more given we know it was so wrong with disastrous consequences).
What exactly was her involvement in this modelling – are there papers
describing it other than <a href="https://iris.ucl.ac.uk/iris/publication/1794138/1" target="_blank">this one</a>?</li></ul><p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>Update 25 July 2022</b>: One of the other participants of the documentary, Mark Dabbs, has contacted us wishing to make his views about the experience public. Mark is the person whose allegations <a href="https://www.itv.com/news/2022-07-04/bordering-on-sexual-assault-pincher-accuser-on-horrific-experience-with-mp" target="_blank">he was inappropriately touched by former deputy
chief whip Chris Pincher contributed to Boris Johnson's resignation</a>. He told us the following:</p><p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;"><i>"I saw the reviews on the show
we did and you know the crux of it was correct. Being one of the seven I agree
somewhat with some of the people who said the show was hi-jacked by two of the
more outspoken participants – I know because I was there doing it and with them
for five days.</i><i> </i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;"><i>The whole time we were there
it was like being taken over by a couple of people who seemed to take things so
personally.</i><i> </i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;"><i>It was me who participated in
eating the dog food from the dog food tin – omitted, ate from the dirty nappy –
omitted, when we were asked to take a flo test six of them baulked and I
volunteered to do it straight away, as in the hospital I have encountered this
sort of lethargy before and that was what we got. None of that was used, so why
get us to do it?</i><i> </i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;"><i>I got to thinking why did some
of them come if they were not going to participate.</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;"><i>The whole fact checker furore
ended up in a big fight and we all stormed off – I went for a run to clear my
head and headed to the church across the way when I had finished. Two others
had sought sanctuary there too!</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;"><i>After the big fight we were
all interviewed separately and after that I swore a lot – they cut that bit
too!!</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;"><i>I felt terrible for Hannah and
when I saw her cancer journey a month later I was even more sad for what she
had to put up with."</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p></p><p>
</p><p>
</p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-25068859168618106822022-07-14T11:33:00.004-07:002022-07-14T11:43:14.487-07:00Why did Frontiers publish a flawed study massively exaggerating Covid risk to children?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9GJVK4lbt_-IkAsEMjpxg2xX8UJeNPlgEBaGYTp2zpKFfJXIkBeEn0ZuvL4ebhnj7N_yO6A_vVTykzox9NA2gyR0Q96v6W_xKBz1WTus96GBwF7z2fglv_zinHYoYpPT0Eb96slKPCaSN145vQcwUVL3MgjIAKS7wdJopJfwdSAVhNtjyDDyvG3anIQ/s3845/indonesia_study2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1579" data-original-width="3845" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9GJVK4lbt_-IkAsEMjpxg2xX8UJeNPlgEBaGYTp2zpKFfJXIkBeEn0ZuvL4ebhnj7N_yO6A_vVTykzox9NA2gyR0Q96v6W_xKBz1WTus96GBwF7z2fglv_zinHYoYpPT0Eb96slKPCaSN145vQcwUVL3MgjIAKS7wdJopJfwdSAVhNtjyDDyvG3anIQ/w640-h262/indonesia_study2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><<i><b>Note</b>: Before publishing this article we sent it to the Editors of Frontiers in Pediatrics asking if they wished to correct any inaccuracies or provide any updates, giving them several days to respond. They did not acknowledge or respond.</i>><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">In September 2021 <b>Frontiers in Pediatrics</b> published <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2021.716898" target="_blank">this article</a> by members of the Indonesian Pediatrician Association (IDAI) claiming that the
case fatality rate (CFR) for children with ‘suspected’ Covid in Indonesia was
1.4% (i.e. 1 in 71) with a CFR of 0.46% (1 in 217) for those with ‘confirmed’
Covid. No such high Covid fatality rates for children have been
observed elsewhere in the world. In fact, worldwide the infection fatality rate
<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33768536/" target="_blank">was estimated (at the time the IDAI paper was published) to be 1 in 37,000<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>for those aged under 20.</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The IDAI authors also made the startingly claim that, of the
175 ‘confirmed Covid deaths’ of children in their study, 62 had no existing
comorbidities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But again,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>elsewhere in the world cases of covid death
in children without serious comorbidities are almost unheard of. For example,
in the UK in the whole of 2020,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01627-9" target="_blank">deep
analysis of ALL child deaths with Covid (there were 28 in total) revealed only
8 were confirmed as likely caused by Covid and that <b><i>all 8 had a
comorbidity recorded, seven of whom had a life-limiting condition</i></b></a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">An <a href="https://investigasi.org/manipulasi-data-ilmiah-untuk-membenarkan-vaksinasi-anak/" target="_blank">article by Ted Hilbert</a> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>written shortly after the IDAI article
was published highlighted the major problems with the study.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the claims in the paper were startling,
in June 2021 the IDAI (through its chairman) exaggerated the paper’s findings
even further, claiming to the media that Indonesia has the highest child
mortality rate (CFR) in the world, 3% to 5%. <a href="https://investigasi.org/tindak-pidana-idai-menyebarkan-berita-bohong-untuk-menciptakan-ketakutan/" target="_blank">This article</a> provides the full details of the obviously fraudulent claim and includes
the police report that was filed in response.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">However, the massively exaggerated claim was used by IDAI to justify vaccinating
children in Indonesia, and indeed a recommendation letter from IDAI to the government,
based on the flawed study and claims about it, has been used as the main
justification by the Indonesian government to issue the EUA and related
policies for vaccinating children.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the paper, the IDAI authors did not provide the raw data from which
their conclusions were drawn, so Hilbert wrote to them requesting it. He
received no reply (despite a statement by the authors that “The raw data supporting
the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without
undue reservation”) and so wrote to the Editors of Frontiers on 23 Oct 2021 to
request the data. The Editors finally replied on 11 Nov 2021 stating that they
would contact the authors requesting the data and finally on 30 Nov 2021 the “Research
Integrity Specialist” at Frontiers sent <a href="https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/English_translation_xlsx/17080991/1" target="_blank">this link to the data</a>.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">After analysing the data with other experts including
pathologists, a group of authors wrote an <a href="http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/papers/FrontiersIn_IDAI_study_response.pdf" target="_blank">8-page detailed response</a> to Frontiers on 15 Dec 2021 pointing out multiple flaws in the study and inaccuracies
in the data. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hilbert has been promised several times that a review by the
editors will take place but (as of today 14 July 2022) this has never happened
despite several follow up requests by Hilbert. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The paper, with its flawed conclusions that
have led to Indonesia’s child vaccine policy, remains published and unchanged. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It is worth pointing out that Frontiers can hardly be
accused of not responding to complaints about papers on Covid treatments. But
it seems only complaints against papers showing benefits of alternative
treatments are taken seriously. In May 2021 <b>Frontiers in Pharmacology</b> published an abstract
of a study by Pierre Kory on ivermectin for COVID-19 that had passed peer
review with an expert panel of reviewers including senior reviewers from the
FDA; but shortly before the full paper was due to be published in a special
issue edited by Robert Malone - <a href="https://www.thelibertybeacon.com/scientific-journal-censorship-with-dr-robert-malone/" target="_blank">it was pulled due to a third-party complaint,with no chance for resubmission</a>. </p> <br /><p></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-60461496740232194092022-07-13T11:23:00.020-07:002022-07-16T06:58:16.196-07:00All you need to know to understand why the ONS data on mortality by vaccine status is systemically flawed<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbhkcSPOl53WmL58XrxGU33A1-zdE2_zWy5qzev-S0FrGxf7aNUamgqk4mcORzhrCBGqQIMd5O5PZ-ItGhKTEkMcBo5szPrb3SurBiNjG7LAtEEa7UxIU7Jux2rCleSa4r3bvjKL6lJv2Ynv7Z0clYxwsB-SpSI4y66zcgti9WWBHW7Nh7ophbVTQDvQ/s878/ONS.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="248" data-original-width="878" height="90" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbhkcSPOl53WmL58XrxGU33A1-zdE2_zWy5qzev-S0FrGxf7aNUamgqk4mcORzhrCBGqQIMd5O5PZ-ItGhKTEkMcBo5szPrb3SurBiNjG7LAtEEa7UxIU7Jux2rCleSa4r3bvjKL6lJv2Ynv7Z0clYxwsB-SpSI4y66zcgti9WWBHW7Nh7ophbVTQDvQ/s320/ONS.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator"><p class="MsoNormal">You don’t need to look very hard into the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland" target="_blank">latest ONS data on all-cause mortality by vaccination status</a> to confirm what we have been saying
for a long time (see for example <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28055.09124">here</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248" target="_blank">here</a>): <b>the ONS data is so obviously flawed (due to miscategorisation,
missing vaccine deaths, and underestimates of the proportion of unvaccinated)
to be worthless. </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">This simple extract from Table 3 on the age standardized mortality
rate (ASMR) *** <b>for non-covid deaths</b> over the full period (Jan 2021 – May 2022) is
all you need to know to realise everything else in the report is problematic.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"> <br /></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none; margin-left: 49.4pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"><td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132">
<br /></td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 184.3pt;" valign="top" width="246">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">age
standardized mortality rate for <b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">non-covid
deaths</span></b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span>(per 100K people)</p>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Unvaccinated</p>
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<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">1474.3</p>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Ever
vaccinated</p>
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<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">892.9</p>
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<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i>(note that the ONS have, curiously, not provided the combined population ASMR for either non-covid deaths or all deaths for this latest period - we have written to the authors of the report requesting these numbers since they cannot be computed from the data provided).</i><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Since this is the rate for non-covid deaths it should - in <b>both categories</b> - be similar to the historical age standardized mortality rate in <b>pre-Covid</b> times. Well, it just so happens the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/12735annualdeathsandmortalityrates1938to2020provisional" target="_blank">ONS has produced exactly those figures</a>:</p><p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Mention"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Smart Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hashtag"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Unresolved Mention"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Smart Link"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin-top:0cm;
mso-para-margin-right:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:8.0pt;
mso-para-margin-left:0cm;
line-height:107%;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; margin-left: 84.8pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 227px;">
<tbody><tr style="height: 12.5pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 70.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="95">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Year</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></b></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.45pt;" valign="bottom" width="133">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">age standardized mortality rate</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 70.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="95">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2019</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.45pt;" valign="bottom" width="133">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">925.0</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 70.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="95">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2018</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.45pt;" valign="bottom" width="133">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">965.4</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 70.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="95">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2017</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.45pt;" valign="bottom" width="133">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">965.3</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 70.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="95">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2016</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.45pt;" valign="bottom" width="133">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">966.9</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 70.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="95">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2015</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.45pt;" valign="bottom" width="133">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">993.2</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 70.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="95">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2014</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.45pt;" valign="bottom" width="133">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">953.0</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
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<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2011</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
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<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">978.6</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Notice how stable those figures are year on year (even in the main 'covid' year 2020 the ASM only went up to 1043). So what could possibly explain a <i><b>60% increase</b></i> in <i><b>non-covid deaths</b></i> in 2022 among the unvaccinated and a <i><b>5% drop</b></i> in non-covid deaths among the vaccinated?<br /></span></p>
<p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Even the most fervent vaccine supporters know that it is not
a miracle cure for non-covid disease. Yet, if you believe the above ONS data, it must be - since
the unvaccinated are dying at a much higher rate of <b>non-covid illnesses</b>. We stopped doing detailed analyses of the ONS updates on this data in January when, having exposed the blatant flaws, we <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248" target="_blank">called on a) the ONS to publicly withdraw their dataset and b) the retraction of any claims made by others that are based upon it</a>. </p><p class="MsoNormal">In case there has been an error either in our understanding of Table 3
or in the ONS presentation of the data we will be happy to set the
record straight and update this article. But the bizarre data in the above table is consistent
with the bias we found in the previous ONS reports. This bias (whereby mortality rates for the unvaccinated are overestimated and mortality rates for the vaccinated are underestimated) will inevitably occur when people dying (of any cause) shortly after vaccination are classified as unvaccinated and <a href="https://www.normanfenton.com/post/bbc-wants-to-understand-why-8-of-the-population-remains-unvaccinated-against-covid" target="_blank">where the proportion of unvaccinated is underestimated</a>. <br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">The above table exposes that, far from fixing the many problems (that we discussed in detail with the authors of the ONS reports) these systemic flaws may have got even worse. </p><p class="MsoNormal">There was previously a laughable 'explanation' provided for the increase in non-covid mortality in the unvaccinated - namely the 'healthy vaccinee effect'. We <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28055.09124" target="_blank">already debunked that both theoretically and empirically</a>. In any case, even if such a ludicrous hypothesis was correct, it would still mean that all the data - and conclusions from it - would have to be adjusted to take acount of the bias (which they certainly have not done). <br /></p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Anybody attempting to draw any conclusions from the ONS data, let alone
do any intensive data analysis, are now wasting their time. </b>While it is possible there may be some interesting trends to
discover from the data (such as possibly noticed <a href="https://supersally.substack.com/p/preliminary-review-of-uk-ons-all" target="_blank">here</a>), these are more likely to simply reveal the extent to which the misclassification
problems and other flaws have changed over time.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">One of the most depressing things about the last two years has been how silent almost the entire academic community of statisticians and mathematicians has been in the face of so many obviously flawed statistics/studies that promote the ‘official narrative’ on Covid and the vaccine. </span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">A small number have contacted us privately to say they see through the nonsense but cannot speak out because they know how damaging it will be to their careers. </span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">In contrast, some prominent statisticians and mathematicians, who have refused to call out obviously flawed data supporting the ‘Covid narrative’, have been vocal in trying to downplay/ridicule more reliable data that supports an alternative narrative. Perhaps some of the prominent statisticians might at least finally publicly acknowledge a problem with the ONS data since it is so obvious?</span><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">*** we have also <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/09/all-cause-mortality-rates-in-england.html" target="_blank">complained about the fact that the ONS started to use the age standardized mortality rate</a> (unnecessary when you have the detailed breakdown by age) since it is essentially just a model that may not be suitable in this context.<br /></p>
<p></p></div><div class="notranslate" style="accent-color: initial; all: initial; animation: initial; appearance: initial; aspect-ratio: initial; backface-visibility: initial; background-blend-mode: initial; background: initial; block-size: initial; border-block: initial; border-collapse: initial; border-end-end-radius: initial; border-end-start-radius: initial; border-inline: initial; border-radius: initial; border-spacing: initial; border-start-end-radius: initial; border-start-start-radius: initial; border: initial; box-decoration-break: initial; box-shadow: initial; box-sizing: initial; break-after: initial; break-before: initial; break-inside: initial; caption-side: initial; caret-color: initial; clear: initial; clip-path: initial; clip-rule: initial; clip: initial; color-interpolation-filters: initial; color-interpolation: initial; color-scheme: initial; color: initial; column-fill: initial; column-rule: initial; column-span: initial; columns: initial; contain: initial; content: initial; counter-increment: initial; counter-reset: initial; counter-set: initial; cursor: initial; cx: initial; cy: initial; d: initial; display: initial; dominant-baseline: initial; empty-cells: initial; fill-opacity: initial; fill-rule: initial; fill: initial; filter: initial; flex-flow: initial; flex: initial; float: initial; flood-color: initial; flood-opacity: initial; font-synthesis: initial; font: initial; gap: initial; grid-area: initial; grid: initial; height: initial; hyphenate-character: initial; hyphens: initial; image-orientation: initial; image-rendering: initial; ime-mode: initial; inline-size: initial; inset-block: initial; inset-inline: initial; inset: initial; isolation: initial; letter-spacing: initial; lighting-color: initial; line-break: initial; list-style: initial; margin-block: initial; margin-inline: initial; margin: initial; marker: initial; mask-type: initial; mask: initial; max-block-size: initial; max-height: initial; max-inline-size: initial; max-width: initial; min-block-size: initial; min-height: initial; min-inline-size: initial; min-width: initial; mix-blend-mode: initial; object-fit: initial; object-position: initial; offset: initial; opacity: initial; order: initial; outline-offset: initial; outline: initial; overflow-anchor: initial; overflow-block: initial; overflow-clip-margin: initial; overflow-inline: initial; overflow-wrap: initial; overflow: initial; overscroll-behavior-block: initial; overscroll-behavior-inline: initial; overscroll-behavior: initial; padding-block: initial; padding-inline: initial; padding: initial; paint-order: initial; perspective-origin: initial; perspective: initial; place-content: initial; place-items: initial; place-self: initial; pointer-events: initial; position: initial; print-color-adjust: initial; quotes: initial; r: initial; resize: initial; rotate: initial; ruby-align: initial; ruby-position: initial; rx: initial; ry: initial; scale: initial; scroll-behavior: initial; scroll-margin-block: initial; scroll-margin-inline: initial; scroll-margin: initial; scroll-padding-block: initial; scroll-padding-inline: initial; scroll-padding: initial; scroll-snap-align: initial; scroll-snap-type: initial; scrollbar-color: initial; scrollbar-gutter: initial; scrollbar-width: initial; shape-image-threshold: initial; shape-margin: initial; shape-outside: initial; shape-rendering: initial; stop-color: initial; stop-opacity: initial; stroke-dasharray: initial; stroke-dashoffset: initial; stroke-linecap: initial; stroke-linejoin: initial; stroke-miterlimit: initial; stroke-opacity: initial; stroke-width: initial; stroke: initial; tab-size: initial; table-layout: initial; text-align-last: initial; text-align: initial; text-anchor: initial; text-combine-upright: initial; text-decoration-skip-ink: initial; text-decoration: initial; text-emphasis-position: initial; text-emphasis: initial; text-indent: initial; text-justify: initial; text-orientation: initial; text-overflow: initial; text-rendering: initial; text-shadow: initial; text-transform: initial; text-underline-offset: initial; text-underline-position: initial; touch-action: initial; transform-box: initial; transform-origin: initial; transform-style: initial; transform: initial; transition: initial; translate: initial; user-select: initial; vector-effect: initial; vertical-align: initial; visibility: initial; white-space: initial; width: initial; will-change: initial; word-break: initial; word-spacing: initial; writing-mode: initial; x: initial; y: initial; z-index: initial;"></div>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-34427446066235116222022-06-30T12:45:00.008-07:002022-07-01T04:13:24.989-07:00Response to Susan Oliver video “Antivaxxers fooled by p-hacking and apples to oranges comparison”<p> <!--[if !mso]>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
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Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><!--[endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
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</p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>The video and the tweet publicising it</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">On 26 June 2022 Susan Oliver published a <a href="https://youtu.be/drSAsfuMkuw" target="_blank">video on YouTube</a> titled “Antivaxxers
fooled by p-hacking and apples to oranges comparison” in response to a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4125239" target="_blank">preprint</a>
[1] by 8 authors, one of whom was well-know BMJ Senior Editor Peter Doshi.
She refers to the paper as the “Doshi paper” and we will use the same reference
here even though Doshi is the last, rather than first, named author. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>The paper demonstrates the increased risk of serious adverse events (SAEs) arising from the Pfizer and Moderna covid vaccine trials. Susan summarised her view of the paper in this tweet (which included the link to the
video) that was retweeted by people like Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter (a world
renowned<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>expert on probability and risk)
and Prof Peter Hansen (Econometrician, Data Scientist, and Latene Distinguished
Professor of Economics at UNC, Chapel Hill):</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ5iTjzGIp1br-k7nQsclUlnM_2OfKwUc7aVkSQPQy8kJEhL-SYcgf2YDLJXggRPglejWJV_cO5a-TIfAYikpj3Xz2pE8nUFXhhYR7TnHB62q2aujbDnGVMPe46TWM6MvVicj_u0ncEHI4JOskvMUxxxGbmOZIyoNcleh8U2QJ91ATAkyE9BqMbeZkYw/s2090/Picture1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2011" data-original-width="2090" height="616" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ5iTjzGIp1br-k7nQsclUlnM_2OfKwUc7aVkSQPQy8kJEhL-SYcgf2YDLJXggRPglejWJV_cO5a-TIfAYikpj3Xz2pE8nUFXhhYR7TnHB62q2aujbDnGVMPe46TWM6MvVicj_u0ncEHI4JOskvMUxxxGbmOZIyoNcleh8U2QJ91ATAkyE9BqMbeZkYw/w640-h616/Picture1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>What Susan says in the video and why it totally
misrepresents the Doshi paper</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Susan spends 3 minutes highlighting a number of people she
refers to as “anti-vaxxers” who tweeted about the paper, including Jordan
Peterson who she refers to as a "self-declared best-selling author" (<i>note: his 2018
book sold over 3 million copies and was number 1 on Amazon</i>). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Susan then states:</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“It’s basically just a rubbish paper that uses
a technique known as p-hacking followed by some apples stuff oranges
comparisons”. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Interestingly, despite the video title, Susan spends less
than 30 seconds describing what p-hacking is and instead refers to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002106" target="_blank">a paper about it</a> [2] (we agree entirely with the general concerns raised about p-hacking and
show how it is avoided <a href="https://youtu.be/s4yCu__18Jo" target="_blank">using Bayesian hypothesis testing</a> [3]). But the key flaw in Susan's criticism is that the “Doshi paper” <i><b>is not an example
of p-hacking at all</b></i>. They do not use p-values and, also contrary to the
continued assertions of Susan, they make no claims at all of statistical
significance. Rather, the paper provides risk differences and risk ratios with 95% confidence
intervals (CIs) for the various different comparisons of vaccine v placebo. For
example, here is their table of results for all serious adverse events (SAEs) and
also of the subset of serious adverse events of special interest (serious AESIs):</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmMRhZF1ZDhDvt2eu1r6vDu6H550u1Wjo9a6dgWZn6Le65--UdtYji1wnRzdm2iRKM2GOA3_KqDsblxz678R-Q5SHsBqyRtzS2gvXmFJzYNyzcfChPlS-Rp__Vinq8C3csElrBUZyP7X4_daUlUBxF_5CNuNxKZ-SSOX2LvafAEgxEUSkFl_NBk53w8g/s520/Picture2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="520" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmMRhZF1ZDhDvt2eu1r6vDu6H550u1Wjo9a6dgWZn6Le65--UdtYji1wnRzdm2iRKM2GOA3_KqDsblxz678R-Q5SHsBqyRtzS2gvXmFJzYNyzcfChPlS-Rp__Vinq8C3csElrBUZyP7X4_daUlUBxF_5CNuNxKZ-SSOX2LvafAEgxEUSkFl_NBk53w8g/w640-h544/Picture2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />If the authors had been “p-hacking” they would have chosen a
p-value like <a style="mso-comment-date: 20220629T1252; mso-comment-done: yes; mso-comment-reference: JE_1;">0.05 and would have added, for each comparison of vaccine
v placebo, a ‘significance statistic’ and arrived at at least one example where
the statistic was less than 0.05. </a><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><a class="msocomanchor" href="#_msocom_1" id="_anchor_1" name="_msoanchor_1"></a><span style="mso-special-character: comment;"></span></span></span>Then
they would claim, for example, that the increased SAE rate was
‘significant’. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They do nothing like
that at all.<p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Susan then claims that only by ‘combining’ the data from the
different trials does Doshi get the (mythically claimed) ‘significant results’
and that such combining should simply not be done (this is one of her ‘apples and
oranges’ comparison argument). But, while it is true that the paper does also
look at the combined numbers for each class of SAE, it turns out
that in each case, the risk ratio for the combined numbers is actually <i><b>less </b></i>than for the Pfizer trial alone. For example, for all SAEs the
(median) risk ratio for Pfizer v placebo is 1.36 compared to just 1.15 for
combined v placebo: the results are less, not more, ‘significant’. Our own
Bayesian analysis of the results presented below makes this very clear.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Susan’s final criticisms of the Doshi paper concerns the
selection of SAEs and the possibility of ‘double counting’. Regarding selection,
<b>the events included and not included are governed by the WHO endorsed Brighton
scheme, and are not decided by the authors, so this is a critical error Susan
makes</b>. <span class="cf0">The Brighton list was created a priori, based on data before the any results were released from the trials.</span> Any double counting, such as with the diarrhoea and abdominal pain
example she uses, are a direct effect of the fact that the data are not public.<span class="cf0"> There’s merit to both measures - counting <i>number of participants (with any SAE)</i> </span><span class="cf1">and</span><span class="cf0"> <i>number of events</i>. If one person has two SAEs that is worse than one person having one SAE. “Double counting” sounds bad, but this is not double counting. Doshi et al are measuring how many SAEs occur in the vaccine group versus the placebo group. If Diarrhoea and abdominal pain were each recorded as a SAE, then that is two SAEs. We don’t know which ones were in the same person as Pfizer/Moderna have not released IPD. In any case, </span>the authors recognise the issue <span class="cf0">that, because some SAEs occur in the same person, the SAEs are not all independent events</span>; they note it in the paper, and introduce an adjustment
to standard error to account for it<span class="cf0"></span>. It is unclear whether the adjustment is
sufficient, but it actually weakens their case (it increases the size of the confidence intervals) - so they can hardly be accused
of bias. </p>
<p class="pf0">Further regarding double counting, SAEs are counted individually to
avoid them being hidden. So, if you get renal failure and then your penis drops
off that should be two SAEs, not one. One person having three SAEs (renal failure, penis drops off, stroke) could be considered as serious
as three people having a stroke; so, although some clinicians disagree, it is
entirely reasonable to count SAEs separately.<span class="cf0"> But Susan does not appear to understand what a SAE is. She assumes something like diarrhoea cannot be a SAE because lots of diarrhoea happens to be mild. But most covid is not serious, either. So diarrhoea can be a SAE if it’s serious enough and meets the regulatory criteria. And it’s a leading cause of death in some places.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That addresses all the ‘flaws’ that Susan claims about the
paper. It is also important to note that, even when all the SAEs in the Pfizer
and Moderna trial are combined, the absolute risk increase is fairly small <a style="mso-comment-date: 20220629T1254; mso-comment-done: yes; mso-comment-reference: JE_2;">-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a fact already made clear by
Doshi et al. (</a>although
this is to be balanced against the very low risks of severe covid, which is in
essence the core message of the paper). They state that, in this case, the
absolute risk increase (95% CI) is between 2.1 to 22.9 events per 10,000
participants.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In our Bayesian analysis
the median absolute risk increase is 12.9 events per 10,000 participants with
CI between 0 to 27. <br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">What it also ironic about the attack on the Doshi paper is that, just before her concluding remarks and ball juggling, <span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Susan uncritically cites a very flawed modelling study crediting nearly 20 millions of lives saved to Covid jabs as a "rebuttal."</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Bayesian analysis of the data</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The benefits of applying a Bayesian analysis to the data is
that we are able to ‘learn’ the full probability distributions of the adverse
reaction rates for vaccine and placebo. This enables us not just to compute the
risk ratios and CIs (we get slightly different results to Doshi) but, crucially,
also to make explicit probabilistic statements about whether the vaccine SAE
rate is higher than that of the placebo (this approach is the Bayesian
alternative to the flawed p-value approach). The results (which we provide
below) do indeed provide explicit support for the hypothesis that the SAE rate for
vaccine is higher than that of the placebo. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> Serious adverse events</p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"> </p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.9pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Vacc AEs</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.45pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Placebo AEs</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.9pt;" valign="top" width="99">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">P(Vacc AE)
Median & CI</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.7pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">P(placebo AE)
Median & CI</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.65pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">RR <a name="_Hlk107407752">Median & CI</a></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.6pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Prob (vacc
higher SAE)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Pfizer</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.9pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">127/18801</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.45pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">93/18785</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.9pt;" valign="top" width="99">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0068 (0.0057,
0.0080)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.7pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0050
(0.0040, 0.0060)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.65pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.362 (1.044,
1.784)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.6pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>98.86%</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Moderna</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.9pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">206/15185</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.45pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">196/15166</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.9pt;" valign="top" width="99">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.01361 (0.0118,
0.0155)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.7pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.01297
(0.0112, 0.0148)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.65pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.050</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">(0.864, 1.275)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.6pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>68.76%</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Combined</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.9pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">333/33986</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.45pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">289/33951</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.9pt;" valign="top" width="99">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0098 (0.0088,
0.0109)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.7pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0085 (0.0076,
0.0096)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.65pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.151 (0.983,
1.348)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.6pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>96.03%</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p><p class="MsoNormal">Serious adverse events of special interest </p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"> </p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.9pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Vacc AEs</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.45pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Placebo AEs</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.7pt;" valign="top" width="98">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">P(Vacc AE)
Median & CI</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.75pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">P(placebo AE)
Median & CI</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.7pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">RR Median
& CI</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.7pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Prob (vacc
higher SAE)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Pfizer</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.9pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">52/18801</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.45pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">33/18785</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.7pt;" valign="top" width="98">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.00280 (0.0021,
0.0036)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.75pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.00180 (0.0013,
0.0025)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.7pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.56 (1.016, 2.44)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.7pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>97.92%</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Moderna</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.9pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">87/15185</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.45pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">64/15166</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.7pt;" valign="top" width="98">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0058 (0.047,
0.0071)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.75pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0043 (0.0033,
0.0054)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.7pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.37</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">(0.98, 1.88)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.7pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>96.85% </b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Combined</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.9pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">139/33986</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.45pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">97/33951</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.7pt;" valign="top" width="98">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0041 (0.0035,
0.0048)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.75pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0029 (0.0023,
0.0035)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.7pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.43 (1.104,
1.857)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.7pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>99.65%</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Serious adverse events of special interest matching Brighton’s
list</p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"> </p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.85pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Vacc AEs</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.5pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Placebo AEs</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.85pt;" valign="top" width="98">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">P(Vacc AE)
Median & CI</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.85pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">P(placebo AE)
Median & CI</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.4pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">RR Median
& CI</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.75pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Prob (vacc
higher SAE)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Pfizer</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.85pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">39/18801</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.5pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">28/18785</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.85pt;" valign="top" width="98">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0021 (0.0015,
0.0028)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.85pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0015 (0.0010,
0.0022)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.4pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.38 (0.86,
2.26)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.75pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>90.82%</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Moderna</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.85pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">65/15185</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.5pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">56/15166</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.85pt;" valign="top" width="98">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0043 (0.0035,
0.0048)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.85pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.0037 (0.0029,
0.0048)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.4pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.16</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">(0.81, 1.66)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.75pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>79.04% </b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.6pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Combined</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.85pt;" valign="top" width="81">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">104/33986</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.5pt;" valign="top" width="79">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">84/33951</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.85pt;" valign="top" width="98">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.00308 (0.0025,
0.00371)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.85pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">0.00249
(0.002, 0.0031)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.4pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.24 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(0.93, 1.65)</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.75pt;" valign="top" width="82">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>92.57%</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Postscrip: the vicious campaign against Peter Doshi </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Following a tweet by Norman Fenton criticising the video blue
checkmark ‘surgeon/scientist’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>David
Gorski made several replies supporting the claims of the video and then made this
attack of Peter Doshi.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipgAja2gCop88MixWDwku2XHRlnBJpYSgpqYaCgxBGFbQnYaPKNtFkbWow5sOIjTgBpvR1LCOfEZudASgDRoQsE2GABwj6DHx69mWnY_TcZo5aSdQ9VXgO9jFC3SSlBkj_w_-9pdwDOC1FN2BFC11xsYFECIoVku8yJ7UG8pIYJZUfK_2q3BiIXwdS0A/s407/Picture3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="214" data-original-width="407" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipgAja2gCop88MixWDwku2XHRlnBJpYSgpqYaCgxBGFbQnYaPKNtFkbWow5sOIjTgBpvR1LCOfEZudASgDRoQsE2GABwj6DHx69mWnY_TcZo5aSdQ9VXgO9jFC3SSlBkj_w_-9pdwDOC1FN2BFC11xsYFECIoVku8yJ7UG8pIYJZUfK_2q3BiIXwdS0A/w400-h210/Picture3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">to which blue checkmark Steve Salzberg (“<span class="css-901oao">Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of BME, CS, and Biostats at
Johns Hopkins University”) replied:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQmfOrwJuxU1Qzp8WK4jcPyi8T5PzH2UCcDycLT2Zt0zPDBVZy_CKnqMhhmBHdAIt3tfE-ecxGsdpfunSRHoHIJvhPqwko1YYHZjvAObHdDjX4B_CMMiU0z35M8bDzFjGXlHzrOXneExgUadPUQKDUaIIIHPiEW5RGXIFyn9SXrwAWAeYcBfjn1DSMpQ/s473/Picture4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="146" data-original-width="473" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQmfOrwJuxU1Qzp8WK4jcPyi8T5PzH2UCcDycLT2Zt0zPDBVZy_CKnqMhhmBHdAIt3tfE-ecxGsdpfunSRHoHIJvhPqwko1YYHZjvAObHdDjX4B_CMMiU0z35M8bDzFjGXlHzrOXneExgUadPUQKDUaIIIHPiEW5RGXIFyn9SXrwAWAeYcBfjn1DSMpQ/w640-h198/Picture4.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<p class="MsoNormal"> and was supported by <span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Art Caplan - Professor of bioethics:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXIQZjy-g6Hemzvx5VMguLjNwQZYDTUJRGmDMLvv34rJLWpUz864sqcRhGbpTPbo-xBR63WOJtX5Pa3556JL4w3A2eAL_38fyTO04PJ6pZZ9amOPgtVyrDjB9qwynEqcSEfXqhFpiS7Af-94ht-mdvnXcRXrH9A9-iqZ_HQq42uXDWzG4LE87_KCf7Iw/s590/art_caplan.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="220" data-original-width="590" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXIQZjy-g6Hemzvx5VMguLjNwQZYDTUJRGmDMLvv34rJLWpUz864sqcRhGbpTPbo-xBR63WOJtX5Pa3556JL4w3A2eAL_38fyTO04PJ6pZZ9amOPgtVyrDjB9qwynEqcSEfXqhFpiS7Af-94ht-mdvnXcRXrH9A9-iqZ_HQq42uXDWzG4LE87_KCf7Iw/w640-h238/art_caplan.png" width="640" /></a></div> <p></p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>References</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">[1] Fraiman, J., Erviti, J., Jones, M., Greenland, S.,
Whelan, P., Kaplan, R. M., & Doshi, P. (2022). Serious Adverse Events of
Special Interest Following mRNA Vaccination in Randomized Trials. Retrieved
from <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4125239">https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4125239</a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">[2] Head ML, Holman L, Lanfear R, Kahn AT, Jennions MD
(2015) The Extent and Consequences of P-Hacking in Science. PLoS Biol 13(3):
e1002106. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002106</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">[3] “A simple example of Bayesian hypothesis testing”, https://youtu.be/s4yCu__18Jo</p><br />Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-54374249290269703652022-04-10T05:31:00.012-07:002022-06-25T05:26:38.745-07:00The curious perfect p-value: a case study in defamation and ignorance <p><i><span style="font-size: large;">Please go to <a href="https://www.normanfenton.com/post/the-curious-perfect-p-value-a-case-study-in-defamation-and-ignorance">https://www.normanfenton.com/post/the-curious-perfect-p-value-a-case-study-in-defamation-and-ignorance</a> for an updated version of this article (there is also a problem with the graphics below).</span></i><br /></p><p> </p><p> </p><p> <span data-offset-key="dgh3t-0-0" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">1. The accusation</span></span></p><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"30or9","text":"<DRAFT>","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":7,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2taf7","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"b0820","text":"1. The accusation","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":17,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"fj8km","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"dkkca","text":"Kyle Sheldrick is making a name for himself as someone determined to expose those who he claims are guilty of spreading Covid ‘misinformation’. He has a particular obsession for going after people who promote real world studies of early effective Covid treatment. One such person is Paul Marik, a highly respected doctor with 30 years’ experience including pharmacology, anesthesiology, and critical care and many hundreds of highly cited peer-reviewed articles. Not content with trying to discredit the Covid work of people like Marik, on 22 March Sheldrick wrote a blog article in which he accused Marik and his co-authors of fraud relating to a 2017 study about vitamin C treatment for sepsis published in the CHEST Journal. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":14,"style":"UNDERLINE"},{"offset":283,"length":11,"style":"UNDERLINE"},{"offset":559,"length":74,"style":"UNDERLINE"},{"offset":646,"length":80,"style":"UNDERLINE"}],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":14,"key":0},{"offset":283,"length":10,"key":1},{"offset":559,"length":74,"key":2},{"offset":646,"length":80,"key":3}],"data":{}},{"key":"5rpo4","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"9drkp","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":4}],"data":{}},{"key":"f14g6","text":"The basis for his potentially defamatory claims was that Marik’s study used data which Sheldrick said must have been fraudulent because the patients in the control group and treatment group were ‘too well matched’ for it to be by coincidence. The problem is that he used a statistical test to make this conclusion which he clearly did not understand, and which was in any case totally inappropriate for his (ill-defined) hypothesis of fraud.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"cvtlm","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2scm2","text":"Online researchers here and here have provided comprehensive explanations of the many reasons why Sheldrick’s argument is badly flawed. But missing so far has been an explanation of exactly what the statistic used by Sheldrick is and how it is computed. Once we show what it is, it becomes evident just how ludicrous the fraud claims are.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":19,"length":4,"style":"UNDERLINE"},{"offset":28,"length":4,"style":"UNDERLINE"}],"entityRanges":[{"offset":19,"length":4,"key":5},{"offset":28,"length":4,"key":6}],"data":{}},{"key":"chjsl","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"ik8c","text":"2. Sheldrick's evidence","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":23,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"b9opj","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"9tq9u","text":"Sheldrick presents his ‘evidence’ in the form of this table: ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"f79a2","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"5gcmi","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":7}],"data":{}},{"key":"4t55a","text":"The rows are the various attributes (personal or medical conditions) of the patients. There were 47 patients in the treatment group and 47 in the control group. The first (resp. second) column is the number of patients in the treatment (resp. control) group with the attribute, while the third (resp. fourth) column is the number of patients in the treatment (resp. control) group without the attribute. So columns 1 and 3 sum to 47 and columns 2 and 4 sum t0 47.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"emira","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"c2ulk","text":"Sheldrick’s hypothesis is that the control group and treatment group are too similarly matched in too many attributes for this to happen by chance (there are, for example, 6 of the 24 attributes where the numbers with the attribute are equal in both groups). He claims that the statistical evidence for this are the values in the last column. These values are the results of a particular statistical ‘significance’ test - the “p Value From Fisher Exact test” – applied to the first 4 column values. He claims that what you should be seeing here are values which average to 0.5 if there was no deliberate attempt to make the numbers in each group similar. The fact that so many numbers are equal to 1 and most of the others are above 0.5 is – according to Sheldrick - proof of fraud. But he is wrong, even if we ignore the various legitimate reasons (well covered in the article by Crawford) why there would inevitably be similarities. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"1sppu","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"1cida","text":"3. So what is the \"p Value From Fisher Exact test\"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":50,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"9delu","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"1tphg","text":"Those that know me know that, as a Bayesian, I regard any p-values and classical statistical tests of significance as arbitrary, overly complex and totally unnecessary (see Appendix below); many people who use them have no idea what they mean. But since this is what Sheldrick is using let's see exactly what the p value statistic in the last column of his table is. Sheldrick assumes that everybody knows what it is and how it is calculated. He does not provide a definition and, as this tweet shows, he does not know or understand it (it is NOT based on the chi squared distribution):","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"akcj","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"8cmlk","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":8}],"data":{}},{"key":"cqqdt","text":"Instead, Sheldrick uses a pre-defined function in the R programming language to compute it. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"9bbdm","text":"In fact, the R function he is using is by no means ‘standard’ for this statistic and there are indeed online calculators like this that give completely different values. For the general case it is quite a complex definition and calculation. However, when the total number of people in the control and treatment group are the same (which they are here, 47 in each) the definition and calculation of the test (as defined by the R function) is much simpler. So, I will stick with the definition and calculation for this simpler case because it allows us to show exactly how the numbers in Sheldrick’s final column are calculated and why they don't mean what Sheldrick thinks they mean.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":126,"length":4,"style":"UNDERLINE"},{"offset":206,"length":35,"style":"UNDERLINE"}],"entityRanges":[{"offset":126,"length":4,"key":9},{"offset":206,"length":34,"key":10}],"data":{}},{"key":"2v3fu","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"5ed3v","text":"The test is based on calculating the following probability:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"28eak","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"4puce","text":"Given that x+y patients out of 94 have a particular attribute, what is the probability that, if the 94 patients are randomly assigned to two groups of 47, exactly x patients in the first group have the attribute (this would mean exactly y patients in the second group have the attribute).","type":"unstyled","depth":1,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":11,"length":1,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":13,"length":1,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":164,"length":1,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":238,"length":1,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"fau68","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2nima","text":"This probability is equal to the number of combinations of x in 47 multiplied by the number of combinations of y in 47 divided by the number of combinations of x+y in 94.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":59,"length":1,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":111,"length":1,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":160,"length":1,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":162,"length":2,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"dluth","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"d2k9e","text":"Mathematically, we write this as:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"8r3jl","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":11}],"data":{}},{"key":"713ta","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"3ns4v","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"6fplh","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"fb5b1","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2ch1d","text":"Formula 1 (it is also called the hypergeometric distribution)","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":10,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"8dc0n","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"8gk8j","text":"So, for example, for the criteria malignancy, there were 5 in the control group and 7 in the treatment group. Applying Formula 1 with x=5 and y=7 we get:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":34,"length":10,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":134,"length":1,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":142,"length":1,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2a7jq","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"brcgj","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"dr8f8","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":12}],"data":{}},{"key":"7g5l7","text":"(you can also get the result directly using this online calculator)","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":44,"length":22,"style":"UNDERLINE"}],"entityRanges":[{"offset":44,"length":22,"key":13}],"data":{}},{"key":"6cnso","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"4f24n","text":"So, the probability of getting exactly 5 in the control group and 7 in the treatment group (given that there were 12 in total) is 0.202. But we need to do some more calculations before getting the 'p-value exact Fisher test' value as defined in the R function used by Sheldrick.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"at0c9","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"b8o6i","text":"First, we note that the difference between the numbers (5 and 7) is 2. That might be considered quite a small difference. As there are 12 in total with malignancy, we calculate the combinations with a difference greater than observed: 12 (12 in control group and 0 in treatment, or 0 in control and 12 in treatment), 10 (11 and 1, or 1 and 11), 8 (10 and 2, or 2 and 10), 6 (9 and 3, or 3 and 9), 4 (8 and 4, or 4 and 8). In fact, the ONLY way we would have observed a difference of less than the 2 we observed is if we had observed 6 in each. The probability of observing 6 in each is, according to Equation(1), equal to 0.2414. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":484,"length":27,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"8ncqa","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"f0h8o","text":"So, the probability of observing at least as big a difference to what we observed is simply 1 minus 0.2414 which is 0.7586 which is the number in the final column. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":113,"length":49,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"qr71","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"9u3lt","text":"So, (in the case where the group sizes are equal), the statistic is defined as the probability of observing at least as big a difference as the one actually observed.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":166,"style":"BOLD"},{"offset":0,"length":166,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"ehl2c","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"1qi5a","text":"To further illustrate this from first principles, look at the diabetes attribute. Here we have 16 and 20 respectively from the treatment and control groups. That is a difference of 4. The only way we could have observed a smaller difference is with the pairings:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":62,"length":9,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"fnjjf","text":"(17, 19) which has a probability 0.15371 (difference 2)","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"8sca2","text":"(19, 17) which has a probability 0.15371 (difference 2)","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"3rvap","text":"(18, 18) which has a probability 0.167844 (difference 0)","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2ijg6","text":"So, the probability of observing a smaller difference is the sum of these three probabilities which is 0.474264. And, therefore, the probability of observing at least as big a difference as the one actually observed is 1 minus 0.474264, which is 0.524736 which is the number in the final column.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":246,"length":49,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"cu8hf","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"b9uf1","text":"For attribute drug addiction the number observed is 5 in each, so the difference is 0. The probability of observing numbers with a lower difference than that is 0 because there are no such possibilities. So, the probability of observing a difference at least as large as what was observed is 1, which is the number in the final column. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":14,"length":14,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"8r7rn","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"3iirj","text":"But we must also always get 1 in the final column when the difference observed is 1 because this means there are an odd number of people with the attribute in total, and it is impossible therefore to observe a difference of 0. That means the probability of observing at least as many as 1 is 1. Take, for example, no comorbidity with 2 in the control group and 1 in the treatment group. The only possible combinations we could have observed here are","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":316,"length":14,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"999r","text":"(0, 3) which has probability 0.121","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"5u6ad","text":"(3, 0) which has probability 0.121","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"6d5dc","text":"(1, 2) which has probability 0.379","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"86l17","text":"(2, 1) which has probability 0.379 (this was what was observed)","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"duf42","text":"None of these has a difference less than 1 and you can see that these 4 probabilities sum to 1. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"cvsf2","text":"But this no comorbidity example reveals how inappropriate Sheldrick’s use of the statistic is. Sheldrick claims that getting a 1 for the statistic is an indication that this was an unusually low difference and therefore is unlikely to have happened by chance. But the actual probability of observing a difference of exactly 1 in this case is equal to the probability of observing (1,2) plus the probability of observing (2,1). That’s a probability of 0.758. In other words, contrary to what Sheldrick believes, it would actually have been far more unusual to have observed the other possibility (a difference of 3). If we had observed a difference of 3 then the statistic in the final column would have been 0.242 rather than 1. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":9,"length":14,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":474,"length":141,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2al9f","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"583a1","text":"Let’s look at some other examples where the p-value is 1 and see how 'unusual' the observations really are:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"18s6c","text":"COPD has pairing (8,7), a difference of 1. The probability of observing this combination is 0.213 – the same as the probability of observing (7,8). So the probability of observing this difference of 1 is 0.426. That is not at all unusual. ","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":4,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"efiph","text":"CRF has pairing (7,8), a difference of 1. The calculation here is the same as COPD - the probability of observing a difference of 1, when the total with the attribute is 15, is 0.426. ","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":3,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"6jjeg","text":"Urosepsis has pairing (11,10), a difference of 1. The probability of observing a difference of 1 when the total with the atribute is 21 is 0.38. Again, not unusual.","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":9,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"74sqj","text":"‘drug addiction’ has pairing (5,5), a difference of 0. The probability of observing this is 0.26, which you can hardly consider as ‘highly unusual’. ","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":1,"length":14,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"5vdku","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"f31p2","text":"4. So how may of the pairings really are 'unusually similar'?","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":61,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"4mgvh","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"6hhm4","text":"In Table 2 we compare the p value with the (much more meaningful) probability of observing the difference - or smaller - in the particular pairing observed (that was shown in Table 1) ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"3dj42","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"9nvun","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"cfm7k","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":14}],"data":{}},{"key":"3l77v","text":"The average of the probabilities of observing the difference observed or less is close to 0.5. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"f9m4v","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"3m1h6","text":"The most ‘unusually similar’ pairing is the (22,22) pairing for vasopressors. But even this has a probability of 0.1636. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"6hql7","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"d0o0i","text":"Only two attributes (vasopressors and positive blood cultures marked in yellow) have an 'unusually similar' pairing if we assume this is defined as one for which the probability of getting the observed difference (or smaller) by chance is less than 0.2. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":21,"length":13,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":38,"length":24,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"253co","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2ph7t","text":"Perhaps the threshold of 0.2 is too low to conside a pairing to be 'unusually similar'. What if we raise the threshld to 0.3? Even then only four other attributes (those highlighted in orange in Table 2) are added to the set of 'unusually similar' pairings.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"dskdc","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"5iol7","text":"5. So what does the number of 'unusually similar pairings' really tells us about the probability of fraud'?","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":107,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"c24uo","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"4hu84","text":"'Well, we can approximate the probability using some basic maths. The average probability of the 'unusually similar' pairings is about 0.2. So let's assume that the probability of getting an 'unusually similar' pairing is 0.2. Now, if there were only 6 attributes in total and all 6 had 'unusually similar' pairings, then the probability that this would happen by chance is 0.2 to the power of 6 which is 0.000064 (0.00064%); that is 1 in 15,625. That still doesn't tell us what the probability of fraud is, but it does tell us how incredibly unlikely it is that such an observation would happen by chance. If there were, say, 12 attributes in total then, by the Binomial theorem, the probability of observing at least 6 'unusually similar' pairings would be 0.0194 (1.94%). But with 24 attributes in total, the probability of observing at least 6 unusually similar pairings is 0.3441 (34.41%). In other words there's a greater than 1 in 3 chance of getting such an observation by chance. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"3ashc","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"88ceo","text":"To compute an actual probability of fraud given the evidence we need a Bayesian analysis and some other assumptions. Such an analysis is provided in the Appendix. In this we explicitly assume that, under the 'no fraud' hypothesis the probability of an unusual pairing is a uniform distribution between 0.1 and 0.3. Under the 'fraud' hypothesis we assume the probability of an unusual similar pairing is a uniform distribution between 0.3 and 0.6 (anything higher would be 'too obvious'). With these assumptions, under the 'no fraud' hypothesis the probability of observing at least 6 unusually similar pairings is 36.3% (whereas under the fraud hypothesis it is 98.1%). If we assume, as a prior, that the fraud and no fraud hypotheses are equally likely, then for the observed 6 unusually similar pairings, the posterior probability of fraud actually decreases to 26%. In other words, the evidence does not support the fraud hypothesis.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"1mgg4","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"kg77","text":"6. The ramifications and what's next","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":36,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"b0n05","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"3jf3u","text":"Sheldrick and his friends on twitter not only savaged the reputation of Paul Marik on the basis of their flawed understanding of statistics, they also ridiculed my credentials as a mathematician for daring to like/retweet the articles by Mathew Crawford and others who highlighted Sheldrick's statistical illiteracy:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"8c9ls","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2pqle","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":15}],"data":{}},{"key":"dt8c","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":16}],"data":{}},{"key":"8rv8j","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":17}],"data":{}},{"key":"9407n","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"9p1as","text":"It may be that Sheldrick’s intentions are honourable but that he has been egged on by other more senior figures determined to bring down all those promoting early Covid treatments. He could redeem himself by 1) apologising for his attack on Marik and 2) exposing those senior figures who have put him into this compromising position.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"7kg13","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"6umtb","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"4fiqh","text":"Appendix: Bayesian analysis","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":27,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"7ecbu","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"7sj10","text":"If you want to test a hypothesis then you want to be able to conclude something about the probability that the hypothesis is true based on the evidence you find; and for that you need a Bayesian approach which avoids any dependency on p-values.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"8t3u9","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"dpp7u","text":"In the following Bayesian network model we assume the 'Fraud hypothesis is either true or false'. Here we assume a 50-50 prior. Our assumption about what 'fraud' actually means is encoded into the definition of the conditional probability function for the node p ('probability attribute has unusually similar pairing'). Here we explicitly assume that, if Fraud is false then p is a uniform distribution between 0.1 and 0.3 and if Fraud is true then p is a uniform distribution between 0.3 and 0.6 (we can easily run the analysis with different assumptions but all of these assumptions are quite favourable to the fraud hypothesis). ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"4qpcv","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":18}],"data":{}},{"key":"1fkm3","text":"When we run the model under the Fraud = false hypothesis we get the following updated probabilities:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"enaes","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"bd553","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":19}],"data":{}},{"key":"7e7l4","text":"But, of course the real power of Bayes is in its backward inference that enables us to compute the revised posterior probability of Fraud when we observe 6 unusually similar pairings:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2dhn","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"6nim1","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"aief0","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":20}],"data":{}},{"key":"cs57k","text":"As you can see the posterior probability that Fraud is true has decreased to 25.9%. Contrary to what Sheldrick assumes the evidence does not support his accusation of fraud.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"at86l","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"cl02f","text":"(Note: A really comprehensive Bayesian analysis would do something much cleverer than assume the chosen uniform distributions in the node p. Also, for each attribute we would take account of any prior knowledge about the incidence rate for the attribute and use the number of observed cases of the attribute in the 94 patients to produce an updated probability of observing the attribute in a patient. We would then use this information to determine the probability of observing the particular observed pairing for that attribute by chance. The Bayesian estimate for fraud is also ceiling on the likely true value of fraudulent data due to the likelihood of a fat tailed distribution of attributes of sepsis patients during different time intervals and correlations between various attributes). ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"71i9k","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"au142","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{"0":{"type":"LINK","mutability":"MUTABLE","data":{"url":"https://twitter.com/K_Sheldrick","target":"_blank","rel":""}},"1":{"type":"LINK","mutability":"MUTABLE","data":{"url":"https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/man-who-discovered-ivermectins-covid-19-efficacy-is-a-joburg-born-wits-trained-doctor/","target":"_blank","rel":""}},"2":{"type":"LINK","mutability":"MUTABLE","data":{"url":"http://kylesheldrick.blogspot.com/2022/03/evidence-of-fabricated-data-in-vitamin.html","target":"_blank","rel":""}},"3":{"type":"LINK","mutability":"MUTABLE","data":{"url":" https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chest.2016.11.036","target":"_blank","rel":""}},"4":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"small","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"spoiler":{},"textWrap":"wrap"},"src":{"id":"d76942_e28c500ae596464db455f74a516cfa34~mv2.png","height":357,"width":593,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_e28c500ae596464db455f74a516cfa34~mv2.png"},"disableDownload":false,"disableExpand":false,"metadata":{"caption":"From Sheldrick's article"}}},"5":{"type":"LINK","mutability":"MUTABLE","data":{"url":"https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/the-meta-analytical-fixers-part-iii-4e8?","target":"_blank","rel":""}},"6":{"type":"LINK","mutability":"MUTABLE","data":{"url":"https://twitter.com/Jikkyleaks/status/1510952298977296393?","target":"_blank","rel":""}},"7":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"content","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"spoiler":{},"textWrap":"wrap"},"src":{"id":"d76942_6e45f850f37643d99f68f276e6ef7683~mv2.png","height":803,"width":901,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_6e45f850f37643d99f68f276e6ef7683~mv2.png"},"disableDownload":false,"disableExpand":false,"metadata":{"caption":"Table 1: Sheldrick's table with the p values (final 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p-value with probability of observing the difference or smaller"}}},"15":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"inline","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"width":416,"textWrap":"wrap"},"src":{"id":"d76942_aedd51cad99442efb1f3d9c601f9ebc4~mv2.png","height":720,"width":376,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_aedd51cad99442efb1f3d9c601f9ebc4~mv2.png"}}},"16":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"inline","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"width":499,"textWrap":"wrap"},"src":{"id":"d76942_a88e6cf90c5340c283cca68338271ee3~mv2.png","height":199,"width":847,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_a88e6cf90c5340c283cca68338271ee3~mv2.png"}}},"17":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"inline","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"width":522,"textWrap":"wrap"},"src":{"id":"d76942_20951e0a39aa40c9a3480ab86e784b9b~mv2.png","height":774,"width":1049,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_20951e0a39aa40c9a3480ab86e784b9b~mv2.png"}}},"18":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"content","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"spoiler":{},"textWrap":"wrap"},"src":{"id":"d76942_18d6fbfe16794b15b8c46726cb7aec01~mv2.png","height":784,"width":1261,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_18d6fbfe16794b15b8c46726cb7aec01~mv2.png"},"disableDownload":false,"disableExpand":false,"metadata":{"caption":"Bayesian network model showing the prior marginal probabilities"}}},"19":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"content","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"spoiler":{},"textWrap":"wrap"},"src":{"id":"d76942_81349109abde4f43ab56f911626051fd~mv2.png","height":927,"width":1263,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_81349109abde4f43ab56f911626051fd~mv2.png"},"disableDownload":false,"disableExpand":false,"metadata":{"caption":"Updated probabilities when Fraud is false"}}},"20":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"content","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"spoiler":{},"textWrap":"wrap"},"src":{"id":"d76942_98ecc1457e454facaf0b92e70e90cdd1~mv2.png","height":944,"width":1216,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_98ecc1457e454facaf0b92e70e90cdd1~mv2.png"},"disableDownload":false,"disableExpand":false,"metadata":{"caption":"Revised posterior probability of fraud is 25.9% when we observe 6 unusually similar pairings in 24"}}}},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="2nt50-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="2nt50-0-0"><span data-offset-key="2nt50-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="erqpo-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="erqpo-0-0"><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://twitter.com/K_Sheldrick" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="erqpo-0-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">Kyle Sheldrick</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="erqpo-1-0"><span data-text="true"> is making a name for himself as someone determined to expose those who he claims are guilty of spreading Covid ‘misinformation’. He has a particular obsession for going after people who promote real world studies of early effective Covid treatment. One such person is </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/man-who-discovered-ivermectins-covid-19-efficacy-is-a-joburg-born-wits-trained-doctor/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="erqpo-2-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">Paul Marik</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="erqpo-3-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">,</span></span><span data-offset-key="erqpo-3-1"><span data-text="true"> a highly respected doctor with 30 years’ experience including pharmacology, anesthesiology, and critical care and many hundreds of highly cited peer-reviewed articles. Not content with trying to discredit the Covid work of people like Marik, on 22 March Sheldrick </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="http://kylesheldrick.blogspot.com/2022/03/evidence-of-fabricated-data-in-vitamin.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="erqpo-4-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">wrote a blog article in which he accused Marik and his co-authors of fraud</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="erqpo-5-0"><span data-text="true"> relating to </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chest.2016.11.036" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="erqpo-6-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">a 2017 study about vitamin C treatment for sepsis published in the CHEST Journal</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="erqpo-7-0"><span data-text="true">. </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="fkq7o-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="fkq7o-0-0"><span data-offset-key="fkq7o-0-0"></span></div></div><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="dah2o-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b _1vY1i ngUhQ f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_e28c500ae596464db455f74a516cfa34~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_540,h_325,al_c,q_90/d76942_e28c500ae596464db455f74a516cfa34~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" title="From Sheldrick's article" /></div><div></div><div></div><textarea class="_1k3YS EilAw" dir="auto" rows="1" style="height: 26px; width: 389px;">From Sheldrick's article</textarea></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="1pd3b-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1pd3b-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1pd3b-0-0"><span data-text="true">The basis for his potentially defamatory claims was that Marik’s study used data which Sheldrick said must have been fraudulent because the patients in the control group and treatment group were ‘too well matched’ for it to be by coincidence. The problem is that he used a statistical test to make this conclusion which he clearly did not understand, and which was in any case totally inappropriate for his (ill-defined) hypothesis of fraud.</span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1pd3b-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1pd3b-0-0"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1pd3b-0-0"><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"8o8df","text":"Before analysing Sheldrick's claim it is important to note that Marik's study began as an observational study where the patient outcomes were good. In order to give the study more substance, the nurses went back in the same hospital patient data and pulled those that met the same criteria as those observed. This was a retrospective pairing and it was not meant to be random. But even ignoring this, Sheldrick's claim of fraud is wrong.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"dvbdq","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"8t4t1","text":"The problem is that, to make his conclusion, Sheldrick used a statistical test which he clearly did not understand, and which was in any case totally inappropriate for his (ill-defined) hypothesis of fraud.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="6jo0u-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="6jo0u-0-0"><span data-offset-key="6jo0u-0-0"><span data-text="true">Before analysing Sheldrick's claim it is important to note that Marik's study began as an observational study where the patient outcomes were good. In order to give the study more substance, the nurses went back in the same hospital patient data and pulled those that met the same criteria as those observed. This was a retrospective pairing and it was not meant to be random. But even ignoring this, Sheldrick's claim of fraud is wrong.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="av2aa-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="av2aa-0-0"><span data-offset-key="av2aa-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="5intc-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5intc-0-0"><span data-offset-key="5intc-0-0"><span data-text="true">The problem is that, to make his conclusion, Sheldrick used a statistical test which he clearly did not understand, and which was in any case totally inappropriate for his (ill-defined) hypothesis of fraud.</span></span></div></div></div><span data-offset-key="1pd3b-0-0"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="av3o5-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="av3o5-0-0"><span data-offset-key="av3o5-0-0"><span data-text="true">Online researchers </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/the-meta-analytical-fixers-part-iii-4e8" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="av3o5-1-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">here</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="av3o5-2-0"><span data-text="true"> and </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://twitter.com/Jikkyleaks/status/1510952298977296393" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="av3o5-3-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">here</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="av3o5-4-0"><span data-text="true"> have provided comprehensive explanations of the many reasons why Sheldrick’s argument is badly flawed. But missing so far has been an explanation of exactly what the statistic used by Sheldrick is and how it is computed. </span></span>Once we show what it is, it becomes evident just how ludicrous the fraud claims are, even ignoring the fact that the control group patients were selected to be well matched.</div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="8e3iv-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8e3iv-0-0"><span data-offset-key="8e3iv-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="b44r9-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="b44r9-0-0"><span data-offset-key="b44r9-0-0" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">2. Sheldrick's evidence</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="1rml3-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1rml3-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1rml3-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="1gvbu-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1gvbu-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1gvbu-0-0"><span data-text="true">Sheldrick presents his ‘evidence’ in the form of this table: </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="1gbhu-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1gbhu-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1gbhu-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="clsr3-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b _1au4D f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="356" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_6e45f850f37643d99f68f276e6ef7683~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_901,h_803,al_c,q_90/d76942_6e45f850f37643d99f68f276e6ef7683~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" title="aggf" width="400" /></div><div></div><div></div><textarea class="_1k3YS EilAw" dir="auto" rows="1" style="height: 32px; width: 509px;">Table 1: Sheldrick's table with the p values (final column)</textarea></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="egtfj-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="egtfj-0-0"><span data-offset-key="egtfj-0-0"><span data-text="true">The rows are the various attributes (personal or medical conditions) of the patients. There were 47 patients in the treatment group and 47 in the control group. The first (resp. second) column is the number of patients in the treatment (resp. control) group with the attribute, while the third (resp. fourth) column is the number of patients in the treatment (resp. control) group without the attribute. So columns 1 and 3 sum to 47 and columns 2 and 4 sum to 47.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="d1sdo-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="d1sdo-0-0"><span data-offset-key="d1sdo-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="crbu6-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="crbu6-0-0"><span data-offset-key="crbu6-0-0"><span data-text="true">Sheldrick’s hypothesis is that the control group and treatment group are too similarly matched in too many attributes for this to happen by chance (there are, for example, 6 of the 24 attributes where the numbers with the attribute are equal in both groups). He claims that the statistical evidence for this are the values in the last column. These values are the results of a particular statistical ‘significance’ test - the “p Value From Fisher Exact test” – applied to the first 4 column values. He claims that what you should be seeing here are values which average to 0.5 if there was no deliberate attempt to make the numbers in each group similar. The fact that so many numbers are equal to 1 and most of the others are above 0.5 is – according to Sheldrick - proof of fraud. But he is wrong, even if we ignore the various legitimate reasons (well covered in the article by Crawford) why there would inevitably be similarities. </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="8be21-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8be21-0-0"><span data-offset-key="8be21-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="c3du-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="c3du-0-0"><span data-offset-key="c3du-0-0" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">3. So what is the "p Value From Fisher Exact test"</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="4801n-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="4801n-0-0"><span data-offset-key="4801n-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="2pve5-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="2pve5-0-0"><span data-offset-key="2pve5-0-0"><span data-text="true">Those that know me know that, as a Bayesian, I regard any p-values and classical statistical tests of significance as arbitrary, overly complex and totally unnecessary (see Appendix below); many people who use them have no idea what they mean. But since this is what Sheldrick is using let's see exactly what the p value statistic in the last column of his table is. Sheldrick assumes that everybody knows what it is and how it is calculated. He does not provide a definition and, as this tweet shows, he does not know or understand it (it is NOT based on the chi squared distribution):</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="cmkd4-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="cmkd4-0-0"><span data-offset-key="cmkd4-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="5lt9v-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative; width: 525px;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="284" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_115a6c97482d4cdb8db4bff7f4ed7d79~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_772,h_548,al_c,lg_1,q_90/d76942_115a6c97482d4cdb8db4bff7f4ed7d79~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" width="400" /></div><div></div><div></div><textarea class="_1k3YS EilAw" dir="auto" rows="1" style="height: 33px; width: 617px;">Sheldrick claims the Fisher exact p value is based on the chi quared distribution</textarea></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="bm9a6-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="fggle-0-0"><span data-offset-key="fggle-0-0"><span data-text="true">Instead, since he does not define or understand it, we can assume Sheldrick uses a pre-defined function (possibly in the R programming language or similar since this gives the same results to Sheldrick's) to compute it. In fact, there does not seem to be a ‘standard’ definition for this statistic and there are indeed online calculators like </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://www.statology.org/fishers-exact-test-calculator/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="fggle-1-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">this</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="fggle-2-0"><span data-text="true"> that give completely different values to that of the function computed by R. For the general case it is quite a </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/297837/how-are-p-value-and-odds-ratio-confidence-interval-in-fisher-test-are-related" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="fggle-3-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">complex definition and calculation</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="fggle-4-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">.</span></span><span data-offset-key="fggle-4-1"><span data-text="true"> However, when the total number of people in the control and treatment group are the same (which they are here, 47 in each) the definition and calculation of the test (as defined by the R function) is much simpler. So, I will stick with the definition and calculation for this simpler case because it allows us to show exactly how the numbers in Sheldrick’s final column are calculated and why they don't mean what Sheldrick thinks they mean.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="6bcft-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="6bcft-0-0"><span data-offset-key="6bcft-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="3hppq-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="3hppq-0-0"><span data-offset-key="3hppq-0-0"><span data-text="true">The test is based on calculating the following probability:</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="c24oo-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="c24oo-0-0"><span data-offset-key="c24oo-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="4i9gf-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="4i9gf-0-0"><span data-offset-key="4i9gf-0-0"><span data-text="true">Given that </span></span><span data-offset-key="4i9gf-0-1" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">x</span></span><span data-offset-key="4i9gf-0-2"><span data-text="true">+</span></span><span data-offset-key="4i9gf-0-3" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">y</span></span><span data-offset-key="4i9gf-0-4"><span data-text="true"> patients out of 94 have a particular attribute, what is the probability that, if the 94 patients are randomly assigned to two groups of 47, exactly </span></span><span data-offset-key="4i9gf-0-5" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">x</span></span><span data-offset-key="4i9gf-0-6"><span data-text="true"> patients in the first group have the attribute (this would mean exactly </span></span><span data-offset-key="4i9gf-0-7" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">y</span></span><span data-offset-key="4i9gf-0-8"><span data-text="true"> patients in the second group have the attribute).</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="37ros-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="37ros-0-0"><span data-offset-key="37ros-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="7m278-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="7m278-0-0"><span data-offset-key="7m278-0-0"><span data-text="true">This probability is equal to the number of combinations of </span></span><span data-offset-key="7m278-0-1" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">x</span></span><span data-offset-key="7m278-0-2"><span data-text="true"> in 47 multiplied by the number of combinations of </span></span><span data-offset-key="7m278-0-3" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">y</span></span><span data-offset-key="7m278-0-4"><span data-text="true"> in 47 divided by the number of combinations of </span></span><span data-offset-key="7m278-0-5" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">x</span></span><span data-offset-key="7m278-0-6"><span data-text="true">+</span></span><span data-offset-key="7m278-0-7" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">y </span></span><span data-offset-key="7m278-0-8"><span data-text="true">in 94.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="ulnf-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="ulnf-0-0"><span data-offset-key="ulnf-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="3bv0e-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="3bv0e-0-0"><span data-offset-key="3bv0e-0-0"><span data-text="true">Mathematically, we write this as:</span></span></div></div><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="aqb33-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 _1yQyz CevUR f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="max-width: 100%; width: 129px;" width="129"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="108" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_8787d46947724427b9cbb77ff6ca7cde~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_181,h_151,al_c,lg_1,q_90/d76942_8787d46947724427b9cbb77ff6ca7cde~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" width="129" /></div><div></div><div></div></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="5rlsd-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5rlsd-0-0"><span data-offset-key="5rlsd-0-0"></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="chh6q-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="chh6q-0-0"><span data-offset-key="chh6q-0-0" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">Formula 1 </span></span><span data-offset-key="chh6q-0-1"><span data-text="true">(it is also called the hypergeometric distribution)</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="2vr9a-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="2vr9a-0-0"><span data-offset-key="2vr9a-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="6fm59-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="6fm59-0-0"><span data-offset-key="6fm59-0-0"><span data-text="true">So, for example, for the attribute </span></span><span data-offset-key="6fm59-0-1" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">malignancy</span></span><span data-offset-key="6fm59-0-2"><span data-text="true">, there were 5 in the control group and 7 in the treatment group. Applying Formula 1 with </span></span><span data-offset-key="6fm59-0-3" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">x</span></span><span data-offset-key="6fm59-0-4"><span data-text="true">=5 and </span></span><span data-offset-key="6fm59-0-5" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">y</span></span><span data-offset-key="6fm59-0-6"><span data-text="true">=7 we get:</span></span></div></div><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="9iren-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative; width: 571px;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="120" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_1aeb22cb3c6c4ef88e493146a8c29709~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_857,h_163,al_c,lg_1,q_90/d76942_1aeb22cb3c6c4ef88e493146a8c29709~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" width="630" /></div><div></div><div></div></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="7pd4r-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="7pd4r-0-0"><span data-offset-key="7pd4r-0-0"><span data-text="true">(you can also get the result directly using </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="7pd4r-1-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">this online calculator</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="7pd4r-2-0"><span data-text="true">)</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="80bf3-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="80bf3-0-0"><span data-offset-key="80bf3-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="qqo1-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="qqo1-0-0"><span data-offset-key="qqo1-0-0"><span data-text="true">So, the probability of getting exactly 5 in the control group and 7 in the treatment group (given that there were 12 in total) is 0.202. But we need to do some more calculations before getting the 'p-value exact Fisher test' value as defined in the function used by Sheldrick.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="bs967-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="bs967-0-0"><span data-offset-key="bs967-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="7pjgf-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="7pjgf-0-0"><span data-offset-key="7pjgf-0-0"><span data-text="true">First, we note that the difference between the numbers (5 and 7) is 2. That might be considered quite a small difference. As there are 12 in total with malignancy, we calculate the combinations with a difference greater than observed: 12 (12 in control group and 0 in treatment, or 0 in control and 12 in treatment), 10 (11 and 1, or 1 and 11), 8 (10 and 2, or 2 and 10), 6 (9 and 3, or 3 and 9), 4 (8 and 4, or 4 and 8). In fact, the ONLY way we would have observed a difference of </span></span><span data-offset-key="7pjgf-0-1" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">less than the 2 we observed</span></span><span data-offset-key="7pjgf-0-2"><span data-text="true"> is if we had observed 6 in each. The probability of observing 6 in each is, according to Equation(1), equal to 0.2414. </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="c3l18-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="c3l18-0-0"><span data-offset-key="c3l18-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="8h815-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8h815-0-0"><span data-offset-key="8h815-0-0"><span data-text="true">So, the probability of observing at least as big a difference to what we observed is simply 1 minus 0.2414 which </span></span><span data-offset-key="8h815-0-1" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">is 0.7586 which is the number in the final column</span></span><span data-offset-key="8h815-0-2"><span data-text="true">. </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="89irf-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="89irf-0-0"><span data-offset-key="89irf-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="bv3hi-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="bv3hi-0-0"><span data-offset-key="bv3hi-0-0" style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">So, (in the case where the group sizes are equal), the statistic is defined as the probability of observing at least as big a difference as the one actually observed.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="19s7f-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="19s7f-0-0"><span data-offset-key="19s7f-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="2n7p9-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="2n7p9-0-0"><span data-offset-key="2n7p9-0-0"><span data-text="true">To further illustrate this from first principles, look at the </span></span><span data-offset-key="2n7p9-0-1" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">diabetes </span></span><span data-offset-key="2n7p9-0-2"><span data-text="true">attribute. Here we have 16 and 20 respectively from the treatment and control groups. That is a difference of 4. The only way we could have observed a smaller difference is with the pairings:</span></span></div></div><ul class="public-DraftStyleDefault-ul" data-offset-key="90tim-0-0"><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-reset public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="90tim-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="90tim-0-0"><span data-offset-key="90tim-0-0"><span data-text="true">(17, 19) which has a probability 0.15371 (difference 2)</span></span></div></li><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="4on1-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="4on1-0-0"><span data-offset-key="4on1-0-0"><span data-text="true">(19, 17) which has a probability 0.15371 (difference 2)</span></span></div></li><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="3i0ju-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="3i0ju-0-0"><span data-offset-key="3i0ju-0-0"><span data-text="true">(18, 18) which has a probability 0.167844 (difference 0)</span></span></div></li></ul><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="arnf7-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="arnf7-0-0"><span data-offset-key="arnf7-0-0"><span data-text="true">So, the probability of observing a smaller difference is the sum of these three probabilities which is 0.474264. And, therefore, the probability of observing at least as big a difference as the one actually observed is 1 minus 0.474264, which is </span></span><span data-offset-key="arnf7-0-1" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">0.524736 which is the number in the final column.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="5up44-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5up44-0-0"><span data-offset-key="5up44-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="bmfst-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="bmfst-0-0"><span data-offset-key="bmfst-0-0"><span data-text="true">For attribute </span></span><span data-offset-key="bmfst-0-1" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">drug addiction</span></span><span data-offset-key="bmfst-0-2"><span data-text="true"> the number observed is 5 in each, so the difference is 0. The probability of observing numbers with a lower difference than that is 0 because there are no such possibilities. So, the probability of observing a difference at least as large as what was observed is 1, which is the number in the final column. </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="5scic-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5scic-0-0"><span data-offset-key="5scic-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="d56n5-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="d56n5-0-0"><span data-offset-key="d56n5-0-0"><span data-text="true">But we must also always get 1 in the final column when the difference observed is 1 because this means there are an odd number of people with the attribute in total, and it is impossible therefore to observe a difference of 0. That means the probability of observing at least as many as 1 is 1. Take, for example, </span></span><span data-offset-key="d56n5-0-1" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">no comorbidity</span></span><span data-offset-key="d56n5-0-2"><span data-text="true"> with 2 in the control group and 1 in the treatment group. The only possible combinations we could have observed here are</span></span></div></div><ul class="public-DraftStyleDefault-ul" data-offset-key="b1d0o-0-0"><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-reset public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="b1d0o-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="b1d0o-0-0"><span data-offset-key="b1d0o-0-0"><span data-text="true">(0, 3) which has probability 0.121</span></span></div></li><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="aubbu-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="aubbu-0-0"><span data-offset-key="aubbu-0-0"><span data-text="true">(3, 0) which has probability 0.121</span></span></div></li><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="adcsp-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="adcsp-0-0"><span data-offset-key="adcsp-0-0"><span data-text="true">(1, 2) which has probability 0.379</span></span></div></li><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="4naqm-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="4naqm-0-0"><span data-offset-key="4naqm-0-0"><span data-text="true">(2, 1) which has probability 0.379 (this was what was observed)</span></span></div></li></ul><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="bcos6-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="bcos6-0-0"><span data-offset-key="bcos6-0-0"><span data-text="true">None of these has a difference less than 1 and you can see that these 4 probabilities sum to 1. </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="ddb6p-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="ddb6p-0-0"><span data-offset-key="ddb6p-0-0"><span data-text="true">But this </span></span><span data-offset-key="ddb6p-0-1" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">no comorbidity</span></span><span data-offset-key="ddb6p-0-2"><span data-text="true"> example reveals how inappropriate Sheldrick’s use of the statistic is. Sheldrick claims that getting a 1 for the statistic is an indication that this was an unusually low difference and therefore is unlikely to have happened by chance. But the actual probability of observing a difference of exactly 1 in this case is equal to the probability of observing (1,2) plus the probability of observing (2,1). That’s a probability of 0.758. In other words, </span></span><span data-offset-key="ddb6p-0-3" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">contrary to what Sheldrick believes, it would actually have been far more unusual to have observed the other possibility (a difference of 3).</span></span><span data-offset-key="ddb6p-0-4"><span data-text="true"> If we had observed a difference of 3 then the statistic in the final column would have been 0.242 rather than 1. </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="7f5al-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="7f5al-0-0"><span data-offset-key="7f5al-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="bnl3e-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="bnl3e-0-0"><span data-offset-key="bnl3e-0-0"><span data-text="true">Let’s look at some other examples where the p-value is 1 and see how 'unusual' the observations really are:</span></span></div></div><ul class="public-DraftStyleDefault-ul" data-offset-key="41esi-0-0"><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-reset public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="41esi-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="41esi-0-0"><span data-offset-key="41esi-0-0" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">COPD</span></span><span data-offset-key="41esi-0-1"><span data-text="true"> has pairing (8,7), a difference of 1. The probability of observing this combination is 0.213 – the same as the probability of observing (7,8). So the probability of observing this difference of 1 is 0.426. That is not at all unusual. </span></span></div></li><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="dsmng-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="dsmng-0-0"><span data-offset-key="dsmng-0-0" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">CRF</span></span><span data-offset-key="dsmng-0-1"><span data-text="true"> has pairing (7,8), a difference of 1. The calculation here is the same as COPD - the probability of observing a difference of 1, when the total with the attribute is 15, is 0.426. </span></span></div></li><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="6311b-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="6311b-0-0"><span data-offset-key="6311b-0-0" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">Urosepsis</span></span><span data-offset-key="6311b-0-1"><span data-text="true"> has pairing (11,10), a difference of 1. The probability of observing a difference of 1 when the total with the atribute is 21 is 0.38. Again, not unusual.</span></span></div></li><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="1qbar-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1qbar-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1qbar-0-0"><span data-text="true">‘</span></span><span data-offset-key="1qbar-0-1" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">drug addiction</span></span><span data-offset-key="1qbar-0-2"><span data-text="true">’ has pairing (5,5), a difference of 0. The probability of observing this is 0.26, which you can hardly consider as ‘highly unusual’. </span></span></div></li></ul><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="bc18k-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="bc18k-0-0"><span data-offset-key="bc18k-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="en8sn-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="en8sn-0-0"><span data-offset-key="en8sn-0-0" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">4. So how may of the pairings really are 'unusually similar'?</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="ddlfr-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="ddlfr-0-0"><span data-offset-key="ddlfr-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="4cbpd-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="4cbpd-0-0"><span data-offset-key="4cbpd-0-0"><span data-text="true">In Table 2 we compare the p value with the (much more meaningful) probability of observing the difference - or smaller - in the particular pairing observed (that was shown in Table 1) </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="3anhh-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="3anhh-0-0"><span data-offset-key="3anhh-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="83c06-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="83c06-0-0"><span data-offset-key="83c06-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="foj2g-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative; width: 527px;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="640" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_6fbaa5cc14854c209d36fdc40fbee7f5~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_743,h_808,al_c,q_90/d76942_6fbaa5cc14854c209d36fdc40fbee7f5~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" width="589" /></div><div></div><div></div><textarea class="_1k3YS EilAw" dir="auto" rows="1" style="height: 39px; width: 615px;">Table 2: Comparing p-value with probability of observing the difference or smaller</textarea></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="96b1n-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="96b1n-0-0"><span data-offset-key="96b1n-0-0"><span data-text="true">The average of the probabilities of observing the difference observed or less is close to 0.5. </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="159gt-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="159gt-0-0"><span data-offset-key="159gt-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="dq1fc-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="dq1fc-0-0"><span data-offset-key="dq1fc-0-0"><span data-text="true">The most ‘unusually similar’ pairing is the (22,22) pairing for vasopressors. But even this has a probability of 0.1636. </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="fnbh1-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="fnbh1-0-0"><span data-offset-key="fnbh1-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="d6rpv-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="d6rpv-0-0"><span data-offset-key="d6rpv-0-0"><span data-text="true">Only two attributes (</span></span><span data-offset-key="d6rpv-0-1" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">vasopressors </span></span><span data-offset-key="d6rpv-0-2"><span data-text="true">and </span></span><span data-offset-key="d6rpv-0-3" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">positive blood cultures </span></span><span data-offset-key="d6rpv-0-4"><span data-text="true">marked in yellow) have an 'unusually similar' pairing if we assume this is defined as one for which the probability of getting the observed difference (or smaller) by chance is less than 0.2. </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="c1kq9-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="c1kq9-0-0"><span data-offset-key="c1kq9-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="3me3m-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="3me3m-0-0"><span data-offset-key="3me3m-0-0"><span data-text="true">Perhaps the threshold of 0.2 is too low to conside a pairing to be 'unusually similar'. What if we raise the threshld to 0.3? Even then only four other attributes (those highlighted in orange in Table 2) are added to the set of 'unusually similar' pairings.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="bc4an-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="bc4an-0-0"><span data-offset-key="bc4an-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="1tv53-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1tv53-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1tv53-0-0" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">5. So what does the number of 'unusually similar pairings' really tells us about the probability of fraud'?</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="3qvl7-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="3qvl7-0-0"><span data-offset-key="3qvl7-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="9j8ep-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="9j8ep-0-0"><span data-offset-key="9j8ep-0-0"><span data-text="true">'Well, we can approximate the probability using some basic maths. The average probability of the 'unusually similar' pairings is about 0.2. So let's assume that the probability of getting an 'unusually similar' pairing is 0.2. Now, if there were only 6 attributes in total and all 6 had 'unusually similar' pairings, then the probability that this would happen by chance is 0.2 to the power of 6 which is 0.000064 (0.00064%); that is 1 in 15,625. That still doesn't tell us what the probability of fraud is, but it does tell us how incredibly unlikely it is that such an observation would happen by chance. If there were, say, 12 attributes in total then, by the Binomial theorem, the probability of observing at least 6 'unusually similar' pairings would be 0.0194 (1.94%). But with 24 attributes in total, the probability of observing at least 6 unusually similar pairings is 0.3441 (34.41%). In other words there's a greater than 1 in 3 chance of getting such an observation by chance. </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="46sp5-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="46sp5-0-0"><span data-offset-key="46sp5-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="5qg9n-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5qg9n-0-0"><span data-offset-key="5qg9n-0-0"><span data-text="true">To compute an actual probability of fraud given the evidence we need a Bayesian analysis and some other assumptions. Such an analysis is provided in the Appendix. In this we explicitly assume that, under the 'no fraud' hypothesis the probability of an unusual pairing is a uniform distribution between 0.1 and 0.3. Under the 'fraud' hypothesis we assume the probability of an unusual similar pairing is a uniform distribution between 0.3 and 0.6 (anything higher would be 'too obvious'). With these assumptions, under the 'no fraud' hypothesis the probability of observing at least 6 unusually similar pairings is 36.3% (whereas under the fraud hypothesis it is 98.1%). If we assume, as a prior, that the fraud and no fraud hypotheses are equally likely, then for the observed 6 unusually similar pairings, the posterior probability of fraud actually decreases to 26%. In other words, the evidence does not support the fraud hypothesis.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="7649k-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="7649k-0-0"><span data-offset-key="7649k-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="7fiui-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="7fiui-0-0"><span data-offset-key="7fiui-0-0" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">6. The ramifications and what's next</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="5tfih-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5tfih-0-0"><span data-offset-key="5tfih-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="22g4a-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="22g4a-0-0"><span data-offset-key="22g4a-0-0"><span data-text="true">Sheldrick and his friends on twitter not only savaged the reputation of Paul Marik on the basis of their flawed understanding of statistics, they also ridiculed my credentials as a mathematician for daring to like/retweet the articles by Mathew Crawford and others who highlighted Sheldrick's statistical illiteracy:</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="8oh03-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8oh03-0-0"><span data-offset-key="8oh03-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="63cla-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative; width: 416px;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="720" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_aedd51cad99442efb1f3d9c601f9ebc4~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_451,h_864,al_c,lg_1,q_90/d76942_aedd51cad99442efb1f3d9c601f9ebc4~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" width="376" /></div><div></div><div></div></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="7ieok-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative; width: 499px;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="94" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_a88e6cf90c5340c283cca68338271ee3~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_749,h_176,al_c,q_90/d76942_a88e6cf90c5340c283cca68338271ee3~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" width="400" /></div><div></div><div></div></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="18u11-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative; width: 522px;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="295" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_20951e0a39aa40c9a3480ab86e784b9b~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_783,h_578,al_c,q_90/d76942_20951e0a39aa40c9a3480ab86e784b9b~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" width="400" /></div><div></div><div></div></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="fdfhh-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="fdfhh-0-0"><span data-offset-key="fdfhh-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="1s4hq-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1s4hq-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1s4hq-0-0"><span data-text="true">It may be that Sheldrick’s intentions are honourable but that he has been egged on by other more senior figures determined to bring down all those promoting early Covid treatments. He could redeem himself by 1) apologising for his attack on Marik and 2) exposing those senior figures who have put him into this compromising position.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="76p3b-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="76p3b-0-0"><span data-offset-key="76p3b-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="76p3b-0-0"><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"9jgtu","text":"Update: Sheldrick has, in a seemingly endless stream of tweets, tried to discredit this article. The core of his complaint is this:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":6,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"aqvuk","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"3s9pt","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":0}],"data":{}},{"key":"5n721","text":"But in his own reponse to Matt Crawford's critique of his letter he includes a section \"Part 2: How I would criticise my original post if I wanted to try and tear it down\" which essentially acknowledges that is is indeed mathematically impossible to get very low probabilities of observing smaller differences in most cases. So, if anything he seems to agree with me there, and it's not clear then what his argument is. Sheldrick never provides definitions nor any details of exactly what his hypotheses are in his original claim of fraud (i.e. the assumptions which presumably don't apply to those in his 'Part 2'). His claim might make sense based on the following erroneous assumption : that, for any given attribute, you can assume that the number of people in a group of 47 with the attribute is any number between 0 and 47. So even if, (as in the example of the attribute 'no comorbidity') only 3 people out of the 94 had this attribute then perhaps he is assuming that we should be just as likely to observe 47 out of 47 with that attribute as 0 out of 47. In fact, the assumption I clearly stated was that the total you would see in each group is bounded by the total number of people in the two groups who have the attribute. So, in the 'no comorbidity' example, the ONLY possible way these could have been assigned to the two groups is:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":7,"length":57,"style":"UNDERLINE"},{"offset":88,"length":82,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":88,"length":82,"style":"BOLD"},{"offset":1154,"length":81,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[{"offset":7,"length":57,"key":1}],"data":{"textAlignment":"left"}},{"key":"7jens","text":"3 in one and 0 in the other (which occurs with probability 0.242); or","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"3eftq","text":"2 in one in 1 in the other (which occurs with probability 0.758) ","type":"unordered-list-item","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"3vfnn","text":"Since a (2,1) pairing was observed (i.e. a with a difference of 1 between them) then it really is impossible to observe a difference less than what was observed, and so the probability of getting a matching where the difference is less than or equal to the one observed is 0.758.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"5tstj","text":"Now - as was already explained in the Appendix below - it is reasonable to argue that the total observed with the attribute (3 out of 94) does NOT mean that it is impossible to observe a higher number than 3 out of 47 in a new group. But to use that argument we would need to use the observed proportion (e.g. by Bayes) to estimate the 'true' patient population proportion for this attribute. That would indeed change the calculations (but not by very much). But that is not what Sheldrick does. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{"0":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"inline","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"width":438,"textWrap":"wrap"},"src":{"id":"d76942_5c75ae297ffb4f0e802f95c967586427~mv2.png","height":199,"width":775,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_5c75ae297ffb4f0e802f95c967586427~mv2.png"}}},"1":{"type":"LINK","mutability":"MUTABLE","data":{"url":"http://kylesheldrick.blogspot.com/2022/03/a-response-to-matt-crawford.html","target":"_blank","rel":""}}},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0"><span data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">7. Update</span></span><span data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-1"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0"><span data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-1"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0"><span data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-1"><span data-text="true"> Sheldrick has, in a seemingly endless stream of tweets, tried to discredit this article. The core of his complaint is this:</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="f878d-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="f878d-0-0"><span data-offset-key="f878d-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="4afqh-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative; width: 438px;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="199" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_5c75ae297ffb4f0e802f95c967586427~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_657,h_169,al_c,q_90/d76942_5c75ae297ffb4f0e802f95c967586427~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" width="775" /></div><div></div><div></div></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J _9Gldl public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="9fji0-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="9fji0-0-0"><span data-offset-key="9fji0-0-0"><span data-text="true">But in </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="http://kylesheldrick.blogspot.com/2022/03/a-response-to-matt-crawford.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="9fji0-1-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">his own reponse to Matt Crawford's critique of his letter</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="9fji0-2-0"><span data-text="true"> he includes a section "</span></span><span data-offset-key="9fji0-2-1" style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">Part 2: How I would criticise my original post if I wanted to try and tear it down</span></span><span data-offset-key="9fji0-2-2"><span data-text="true">" which essentially acknowledges that is is indeed mathematically impossible to get very low probabilities of observing smaller differences in most cases. So, if anything he seems to agree with me there, and it's not clear then what his argument is. Sheldrick never provides definitions nor any details of exactly what his hypotheses are in his original claim of fraud (i.e. the assumptions which presumably don't apply to those in his 'Part 2'). His claim might make sense based on the following erroneous assumption: that, for any given attribute, you can assume that the number of people in a group of 47 with the attribute is any number between 0 and 47. So even if, (as in the example of the attribute 'no comorbidity') only 3 people out of the 94 had this attribute then perhaps he is assuming that we should be just as likely to observe 47 out of 47 with that attribute as 0 out of 47. In fact, the assumption I clearly stated was that the total you would see in each group </span></span><span data-offset-key="9fji0-2-3" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">is bounded by the total number of people in the two groups who have the attribute</span></span><span data-offset-key="9fji0-2-4"><span data-text="true">. So, in the 'no comorbidity' example, the ONLY possible way these could have been assigned to the two groups is:</span></span></div></div><ul class="public-DraftStyleDefault-ul" data-offset-key="del1f-0-0"><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-reset public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="del1f-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="del1f-0-0"><span data-offset-key="del1f-0-0"><span data-text="true">3 in one and 0 in the other (which occurs with probability 0.242); or</span></span></div></li><li class="MIezR Oh89J CBc8K public-DraftStyleDefault-list-ltr rich-content-UL public-DraftStyleDefault-unorderedListItem public-DraftStyleDefault-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-listLTR" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="1kasq-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1kasq-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1kasq-0-0"><span data-text="true">2 in one in 1 in the other (which occurs with probability 0.758) </span></span></div></li></ul><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="9mdgg-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="9mdgg-0-0"><span data-offset-key="9mdgg-0-0"><span data-text="true">Since a (2,1) pairing was observed (i.e. a with a difference of 1 between them) then it really is impossible to observe a difference less than what was observed, and so the probability of getting a matching where the difference is less than or equal to the one observed is 0.758.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><span data-text="true">Now - as was already explained in the Appendix below - it is reasonable to argue that the total observed with the attribute (3 out of 94) does NOT mean that it is impossible to observe a higher number than 3 out of 47 in a new group. But to use that argument we would need to use the observed proportion (e.g. by Bayes) to estimate the 'true' patient population proportion for this attribute. That would indeed change the calculations (but not by very much). But that is not what Sheldrick does. </span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><span data-text="true"><b>Update</b>: </span></span>Here is a video covering the main issues:<span data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><span data-text="true"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TIdDWxyjrkI" width="320" youtube-src-id="TIdDWxyjrkI"></iframe></div><br /></span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1een8-0-0"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div></div></div><span data-offset-key="76p3b-0-0"></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0"><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"4d43k","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":0}],"data":{}},{"key":"5vgb2","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"1csgv","text":"8. A hypothetical example that shows just how ludicrous Sheldrick's accusations are","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":83,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"eacou","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"bmia8","text":"Imagine the following:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"5rhoi","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"bd7a3","text":"In a large British senior school all first years (these are 11-12 years olds unless they missed a year or more) take an English test after 2 weeks. Those who fail get retested 2 weeks later.","type":"unstyled","depth":1,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":191,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"d4phk","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":1,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"ebhad","text":"In a trial, 47 of those who fail are given some short one-to-one tutoring before the next test and the results are very promising, as 42 of them pass the next test. To determine how effective this short tutoring session is the results (from second test) of a selection of 47 students who did NOT get the tutoring are reviewed. Only 10 of them passed the second test. These results for short tutoring are considered so good that the study is published and short tutoring is subsequently recommended to all students who fail the first test.","type":"unstyled","depth":1,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":538,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"4l72s","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":1,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2ui6b","text":"However, 5 years later an anti-tutoring activist declares the study was fraudulent because there was an impossibly close matching between the tutored group and the control group -which could not have happened randomly, as evidenced by the large number of Fisher exact p statistic values equal to 1:","type":"unstyled","depth":1,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":299,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{"0":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-video","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"size":"content","alignment":"center","textWrap":"wrap"},"tempData":false,"src":"https://youtu.be/TIdDWxyjrkI","metadata":{"oembed":{"thumbnail_url":"https://i.ytimg.com/vi/TIdDWxyjrkI/maxresdefault.jpg","thumbnail_height":720,"thumbnail_width":1280,"video_url":"https://youtu.be/TIdDWxyjrkI"}},"duration":780}}},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="f8ol8-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _1CBud Dsu-b _1au4D f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none"><div class="Q31CM npP6M f3bms4w" data-hook="videoPlayer" draggable="true" style="padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><div class="_37MeN"></div><div class="NjOn2" data-loaded="true" style="height: 100%; width: 100%;"><div style="height: 100%; width: 100%;"></div></div></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="9r8ar-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="9r8ar-0-0"><span data-offset-key="9r8ar-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="90o0m-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="90o0m-0-0"><span data-offset-key="90o0m-0-0" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">8. A hypothetical example that shows just how ludicrous Sheldrick's accusations are</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="7t45c-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="7t45c-0-0"><span data-offset-key="7t45c-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="4jdrs-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="4jdrs-0-0"><span data-offset-key="4jdrs-0-0"><span data-text="true">Imagine the following:</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="fet2m-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="fet2m-0-0"><span data-offset-key="fet2m-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="1pdki-0-0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1pdki-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1pdki-0-0" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">In a large British senior school all first years (these are 11-12 years olds unless they missed a year or more) take an English test after 2 weeks. Those who fail get retested 2 weeks later.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="7n0af-0-0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="7n0af-0-0"><span data-offset-key="7n0af-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="9u7db-0-0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="9u7db-0-0"><span data-offset-key="9u7db-0-0" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">In a trial, 47 of those who fail are given some short one-to-one tutoring before the next test and the results are very promising, as 42 of them pass the next test. To determine how effective this short tutoring session is the results (from second test) of a selection of 47 students who did NOT get the tutoring are reviewed. Only 10 of them passed the second test. These results for short tutoring are considered so good that the study is published and short tutoring is subsequently recommended to all students who fail the first test.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="8gas1-0-0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8gas1-0-0"><span data-offset-key="8gas1-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth1 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="8knpd-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8knpd-0-0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span data-offset-key="8knpd-0-0" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true">However, 5 years later an anti-tutoring activist declares the study was fraudulent because there was an impossibly close matching between the tutored group and the control group -which could not have happened randomly, as evidenced by the large number of Fisher exact p statistic values equal to 1:</span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8knpd-0-0"><span data-offset-key="8knpd-0-0" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHMeaVLEr3P5G2YMuhd6Tv6BxP-eNMHW9S6cR_Ls1qr6m_73qQtilHCxd3aUw4BZsIWngH1gdiic1vKPBJXFogmPQlISzWJKTie2CgAgnii6A6s1P1-zXbtaWqoudrpaBhhBWDAmBzSVfJdiS3lW-eMMXjRQGXcPRVetDNuBL7O74G2IfpruICIrmMRw/s852/table_analogy.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="852" height="389" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHMeaVLEr3P5G2YMuhd6Tv6BxP-eNMHW9S6cR_Ls1qr6m_73qQtilHCxd3aUw4BZsIWngH1gdiic1vKPBJXFogmPQlISzWJKTie2CgAgnii6A6s1P1-zXbtaWqoudrpaBhhBWDAmBzSVfJdiS3lW-eMMXjRQGXcPRVetDNuBL7O74G2IfpruICIrmMRw/w400-h389/table_analogy.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /></span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8knpd-0-0"><span data-offset-key="8knpd-0-0" style="font-style: italic;"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div></div></div><span data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0"></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0"><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"g3pp","text":"Note how the type of criterai, their underlying population rates, and inevitable dependencies and correlations between the them mean that it would be remarkable if you did not see a lot of p-values equal, or close, to 1.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Note how the type of criteria, their underlying population rates, and inevitable dependencies and correlations between them, mean that it would be remarkable if you<i> did not see</i> a lot of p-values equal, or close, to 1.</div><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"g3pp","text":"Note how the type of criterai, their underlying population rates, and inevitable dependencies and correlations between the them mean that it would be remarkable if you did not see a lot of p-values equal, or close, to 1.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"> </div><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"g3pp","text":"Note how the type of criterai, their underlying population rates, and inevitable dependencies and correlations between the them mean that it would be remarkable if you did not see a lot of p-values equal, or close, to 1.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"cg5sn","text":"9. Sheldrick's behaviour","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":24,"style":"BOLD"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"fve8d","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"6vm04","text":"As pointed out by an online researcher this is the kind of online hate posted by Sheldrick (this time against an esteemed cardiologist) that not only contravenes good medical practice guidelines, but also shows that he doesn't understand the difference between \"heart attack\" and \"sudden cardiac death\".","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":3,"length":36,"style":"UNDERLINE"}],"entityRanges":[{"offset":3,"length":36,"key":0}],"data":{}},{"key":"141ej","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{"0":{"type":"LINK","mutability":"MUTABLE","data":{"url":"https://twitter.com/Jikkyleaks/status/1515500827351617537?s=20&t=AJzT7MwafGMPugY8mDYBQg","target":"_blank","rel":""}}},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="f2alg-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="f2alg-0-0"><span data-offset-key="f2alg-0-0" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">9. Sheldrick's behaviour</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="19feg-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="19feg-0-0"><span data-offset-key="19feg-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="b9pbu-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="b9pbu-0-0"><span data-offset-key="b9pbu-0-0"><span data-text="true">As </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://twitter.com/Jikkyleaks/status/1515500827351617537?s=20&t=AJzT7MwafGMPugY8mDYBQg" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="b9pbu-1-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">pointed out by an online researcher </span></span></a><span data-offset-key="b9pbu-2-0"><span data-text="true"> this is the kind of online hate posted by Sheldrick (this time against an esteemed cardiologist) that not only contravenes good medical practice guidelines, but also shows that he doesn't understand the difference between "heart attack" and "sudden cardiac death".</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="fghu7-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="fghu7-0-0"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv0rkhZcBvePn4fxWhcF-tx-IV7DNiME81vRfSe1RUhy_yna4G_VW2Js8n8FObAwWwZI7XFGDaiS-96dHIloEO0WzMlSlldqoD8DKefytp6H8kPIqS9wAZkj0R1g3IbCzXMBYNwTgAcmSamPpvB4BB-ROSr4sk4w90BfR7MGLuVGYeqx6M1p_qCZyNVQ/s766/sheldrick_f_ck.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="565" data-original-width="766" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv0rkhZcBvePn4fxWhcF-tx-IV7DNiME81vRfSe1RUhy_yna4G_VW2Js8n8FObAwWwZI7XFGDaiS-96dHIloEO0WzMlSlldqoD8DKefytp6H8kPIqS9wAZkj0R1g3IbCzXMBYNwTgAcmSamPpvB4BB-ROSr4sk4w90BfR7MGLuVGYeqx6M1p_qCZyNVQ/w400-h295/sheldrick_f_ck.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span data-offset-key="fghu7-0-0"><br /></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="fghu7-0-0"><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"dhst0","text":"There is plenty more on Sheldrick's dubious associations and funding here. So how comes the BBC decided that this guy was a suitable 'scientist' to interview?","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":92,"length":65,"style":"UNDERLINE"}],"entityRanges":[{"offset":92,"length":65,"key":0}],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{"0":{"type":"LINK","mutability":"MUTABLE","data":{"url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-58831472","target":"_blank","rel":""}}},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span data-offset-key="1hc24-0-0"><span data-text="true">There is plenty more on Sheldrick's dubious associations and funding <a href="https://twitter.com/Jikkyleaks" target="_blank">here</a>. So how comes the </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" data-hook="linkViewer" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-58831472" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="1hc24-1-0" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">BBC decided that this guy was a suitable 'scientist' to interview</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="1hc24-2-0"><span data-text="true">?</span></span></div><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"dhst0","text":"There is plenty more on Sheldrick's dubious associations and funding here. So how comes the BBC decided that this guy was a suitable 'scientist' to interview?","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":92,"length":65,"style":"UNDERLINE"}],"entityRanges":[{"offset":92,"length":65,"key":0}],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{"0":{"type":"LINK","mutability":"MUTABLE","data":{"url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-58831472","target":"_blank","rel":""}}},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span data-offset-key="1hc24-2-0"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"dhst0","text":"There is plenty more on Sheldrick's dubious associations and funding here. So how comes the BBC decided that this guy was a suitable 'scientist' to interview?","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":92,"length":65,"style":"UNDERLINE"}],"entityRanges":[{"offset":92,"length":65,"key":0}],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{"0":{"type":"LINK","mutability":"MUTABLE","data":{"url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-58831472","target":"_blank","rel":""}}},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span data-offset-key="1hc24-2-0"><span data-text="true"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNqkUv-o6xzL8EUVP_HOUruA0PLvYG1Br5n3TbQszRlmLjKrMMjXJ-lL7CXoP4iVxiSJR8LPOlGUTr2hlcqbBtvmtcUja-70NOZL0ncz-9KEqlgxuq6DG_pnMKkdiPJB5KefUh5nUFUAWMYEhgkX4cLXMgBr113-E4hDYYN4KYICUhZY83Ze55nWWpzQ/s1498/bbc.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1498" data-original-width="1185" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNqkUv-o6xzL8EUVP_HOUruA0PLvYG1Br5n3TbQszRlmLjKrMMjXJ-lL7CXoP4iVxiSJR8LPOlGUTr2hlcqbBtvmtcUja-70NOZL0ncz-9KEqlgxuq6DG_pnMKkdiPJB5KefUh5nUFUAWMYEhgkX4cLXMgBr113-E4hDYYN4KYICUhZY83Ze55nWWpzQ/w316-h400/bbc.JPG" width="316" /></a></div><br /> </span></span></div><span data-offset-key="fghu7-0-0"></span></div></div></div> </div><span data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0"></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0"><span data-offset-key="c1rrs-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="5hb0q-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5hb0q-0-0"><span data-offset-key="5hb0q-0-0" style="font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">Appendix: Bayesian analysis</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="18s6i-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="18s6i-0-0"><span data-offset-key="18s6i-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="brcmm-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="brcmm-0-0"><span data-offset-key="brcmm-0-0"><span data-text="true">If you want to test a hypothesis then you want to be able to conclude something about the probability that the hypothesis is true based on the evidence you find; and for that you need a Bayesian approach which avoids any dependency on p-values.</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="bbkme-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="bbkme-0-0"><span data-offset-key="bbkme-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="5dm0m-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5dm0m-0-0"><span data-offset-key="5dm0m-0-0"><span data-text="true">In the following Bayesian network model we assume the 'Fraud hypothesis is either true or false'. Here we assume a 50-50 prior. Our assumption about what 'fraud' actually means is encoded into the definition of the conditional probability function for the node p ('probability attribute has unusually similar pairing'). Here we explicitly assume that, if Fraud is false then p is a uniform distribution between 0.1 and 0.3 and if Fraud is true then p is a uniform distribution between 0.3 and 0.6 (we can easily run the analysis with different assumptions but all of these assumptions are quite favourable to the fraud hypothesis). </span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5dm0m-0-0"><span data-offset-key="5dm0m-0-0"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5dm0m-0-0"><div data-draftjs-conductor-fragment="{"blocks":[{"key":"498mp","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":0}],"data":{}},{"key":"c0r70","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"68oul","text":"When we run the model under the Fraud = false hypothesis we get the following updated probabilities:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"eusnq","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"3soal","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":1}],"data":{}},{"key":"esi4a","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"cilp6","text":"But, of course the real power of Bayes is in its backward inference that enables us to compute the revised posterior probability of Fraud when we observe 6 unusually similar pairings:","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"2n1l0","text":" ","type":"atomic","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":1,"key":2}],"data":{}},{"key":"d135q","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"aqrdk","text":"As you can see the posterior probability that Fraud is true has decreased to 34.6%. Contrary to what Sheldrick assumes the evidence does not support his accusation of fraud.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}],"entityMap":{"0":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"content","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"spoiler":{},"textWrap":"wrap"},"src":{"id":"d76942_91c90a1c910c4ee7b416845d7b87b335~mv2.png","height":991,"width":1611,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_91c90a1c910c4ee7b416845d7b87b335~mv2.png"},"disableDownload":false,"disableExpand":false,"metadata":{"caption":"Bayesian network model showing the prior marginal probabilities"}}},"1":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"inline","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"spoiler":{},"textWrap":"wrap","width":666},"src":{"id":"d76942_212d407a11994c828f3c82621843592b~mv2.png","height":934,"width":1201,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_212d407a11994c828f3c82621843592b~mv2.png"},"disableDownload":false,"disableExpand":false,"metadata":{"caption":"Updated probabilities when Fraud is false"}}},"2":{"type":"wix-draft-plugin-image","mutability":"IMMUTABLE","data":{"config":{"alignment":"center","size":"inline","showTitle":true,"showDescription":true,"spoiler":{},"textWrap":"wrap","width":648},"src":{"id":"d76942_a9ee5155ad534992aaf36f4f0e2ea56c~mv2.png","height":954,"width":1186,"original_file_name":"image.png","file_name":"d76942_a9ee5155ad534992aaf36f4f0e2ea56c~mv2.png"},"disableDownload":false,"disableExpand":false,"metadata":{"caption":"Revised posterior probability of fraud is 34.6% when we observe 6 unusually similar pairings in 22"}}}},"VERSION":"8.70.33"}" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="bifct-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b _1au4D f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="394" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_91c90a1c910c4ee7b416845d7b87b335~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_1110,h_683,al_c,q_90/d76942_91c90a1c910c4ee7b416845d7b87b335~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" width="640" /></div><div></div><div></div><textarea class="_1k3YS EilAw" dir="auto" rows="1" style="height: 36px; width: 512px;">Bayesian network model showing the prior marginal probabilities</textarea></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="5hc0g-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5hc0g-0-0"><span data-offset-key="5hc0g-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="1cbrh-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1cbrh-0-0"><span data-offset-key="1cbrh-0-0"><span data-text="true">When we run the model under the Fraud = false hypothesis we get the following updated probabilities:</span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="20am1-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="20am1-0-0"><span data-offset-key="20am1-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="l1ho-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative; width: 666px;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="566" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_212d407a11994c828f3c82621843592b~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_999,h_777,al_c,q_90/d76942_212d407a11994c828f3c82621843592b~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" width="640" /></div><div></div><div></div><textarea class="_1k3YS EilAw" dir="auto" rows="1" style="height: 31px; width: 512px;">Updated probabilities when Fraud is false</textarea></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="bkgic-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="bkgic-0-0"><span data-offset-key="bkgic-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="6rvmn-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="6rvmn-0-0"><span data-offset-key="6rvmn-0-0"><span data-text="true">But, of course the real power of Bayes is in its backward inference that enables us to compute the revised posterior probability of Fraud when we observe 6 unusually similar pairings:</span></span></div></div><figure class="_2zSkX FSEVs" contenteditable="false" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="20scr-0-0"><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative; width: 648px;" width="20"><div class="_2kEVY" data-hook="imageViewer" role="button" tabindex="0"><div class="_3WJnn f3bms4w"><img class="OzAYt _3xs9_" height="515" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/d76942_a9ee5155ad534992aaf36f4f0e2ea56c~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_972,h_782,al_c,q_90/d76942_a9ee5155ad534992aaf36f4f0e2ea56c~mv2.webp" style="opacity: 1;" width="640" /></div><div></div><div></div><textarea class="_1k3YS EilAw" dir="auto" rows="1" style="height: 49px; width: 576px;">Revised posterior probability of fraud is 34.6% when we observe 6 unusually similar pairings in 22</textarea></div><div class="aWTlU" data-hook="componentOverlay" draggable="true" role="none"></div></div></figure><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="25hv5-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="25hv5-0-0"><span data-offset-key="25hv5-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="70gfk-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="70gfk-0-0"><span data-offset-key="70gfk-0-0"><span data-text="true">As you can see the posterior probability that Fraud is true has decreased to 34.6%. Contrary to what Sheldrick assumes the evidence does not support his accusation of fraud.</span></span><span data-offset-key="5dm0m-0-0"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div></div></div></div><div class="_1BaDs _2OtS3 CKAfH _1CBud Dsu-b _1au4D f3bms4w _3eCPQ undefined kWFic" data-focus="true" role="none" style="cursor: default; position: relative;" width="20"><span data-offset-key="5dm0m-0-0"><span data-text="true"> </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="6tgce-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="6tgce-0-0"><span data-offset-key="6tgce-0-0"></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="2e0a7-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="2e0a7-0-0"><span data-offset-key="2e0a7-0-0"><span data-text="true">(Note: A really comprehensive Bayesian analysis would do something much cleverer than assume the chosen uniform distributions in the node p. Also, for each attribute we would take account of any prior knowledge about the incidence rate for the attribute and use the number of observed cases of the attribute in the 94 patients to produce an updated probability of observing the attribute in a patient. We would then use this information to determine the probability of observing the particular observed pairing for that attribute by chance. The Bayesian estimate for fraud is also ceiling on the likely true value of fraudulent data due to the likelihood of a fat tailed distribution of attributes of sepsis patients during different time intervals and correlations between various attributes). </span></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="484o2-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="484o2-0-0"><span data-offset-key="484o2-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div class="_25Ehb _3qYRK Oh89J public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr fixed-tab-size rich_content_P" data-block="true" data-editor="editor" data-offset-key="e22pt-0-0"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="e22pt-0-0"><span data-offset-key="e22pt-0-0"><br /></span></div></div></div>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-78101130550283239362022-03-03T08:59:00.001-08:002022-03-03T11:08:20.495-08:00Official mortality data for England reveal systematic undercounting of deaths occurring within first two weeks of Covid-19 vaccination<p class="MsoNormal">Our new research (<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248" target="_blank">full paper with first author Clare Craig available on ResearchGate</a>) has discovered over 26,000 covid and non-covid
deaths expected to have occurred within two weeks of first dose vaccination have been omitted from the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland" target="_blank">latest UK ONS deaths by vaccination status </a><a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland" target="_blank">report</a>:</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEirruVkl3TBsOKtMHVmMXRDdEzXrpaIp95_gJfyE9Mtaha5XHGZVz3ZfgJ9jnVWybFMyAmsTaxDrIsNgXaijdFbhDDUL0dALo8UcI7n0kltboVcCSfw3FbHsN9gzyZrygPqIEL9I8p-svgweDxjb93vWFs_fZxIiHF8GBMcN2MZ03CQ55FC1CwFH-EooQ=s2071" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1140" data-original-width="2071" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEirruVkl3TBsOKtMHVmMXRDdEzXrpaIp95_gJfyE9Mtaha5XHGZVz3ZfgJ9jnVWybFMyAmsTaxDrIsNgXaijdFbhDDUL0dALo8UcI7n0kltboVcCSfw3FbHsN9gzyZrygPqIEL9I8p-svgweDxjb93vWFs_fZxIiHF8GBMcN2MZ03CQ55FC1CwFH-EooQ=w640-h352" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> Estimated deaths for England that were not included in the ONS dataset </td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"></span></p><p> </p><p>The ONS data also fails to include millions of people
categorised in the UK NIMS database as ‘within 21 days vaccination’ status:
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5VsRwTChdw_HgQcJqYRADJS4ptCxRRAJQPW9BF3t92O78PNXlmV9iBCmjLI7RXwzsSzMgvhhsi1WAmHWxyUevyA1oqcK8kHmiFmQnRwG3EBYe8pp9gFixw3gWiMSGJqFlhufbNCJS70dWIW6ZOxKsPWkaEDAOHvk9e73vNS8URhyb3k9_FhriXxZz6g=s2071" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1140" data-original-width="2071" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5VsRwTChdw_HgQcJqYRADJS4ptCxRRAJQPW9BF3t92O78PNXlmV9iBCmjLI7RXwzsSzMgvhhsi1WAmHWxyUevyA1oqcK8kHmiFmQnRwG3EBYe8pp9gFixw3gWiMSGJqFlhufbNCJS70dWIW6ZOxKsPWkaEDAOHvk9e73vNS8URhyb3k9_FhriXxZz6g=w640-h352" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Our analysis compares expected deaths in the ONS dataset
to those that have occurred in the whole population. We only use data from UK
government sources including data from NIMS and UKHSA. We found implausibly low number of non-covid deaths in the ‘within 21
days of first dose’ category:</p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhAgPHBzIzJ6-XOzIVmN4NepqHgvxMck4Jd4dCmnCceOTTZx8StXD1Z_xgGa33nPUzytBbToCETbFX5_i_GpO-J9d0HUChVzx5fSeDwUlzOVOVS2DNPdn-zXhtJ7Vs7LPwydCknIl-zFB0dV1N19S8Ezg0XSLtYBezCt11aB3GNtHDg1ZlzNEKocp8eew=s601" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="269" data-original-width="601" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhAgPHBzIzJ6-XOzIVmN4NepqHgvxMck4Jd4dCmnCceOTTZx8StXD1Z_xgGa33nPUzytBbToCETbFX5_i_GpO-J9d0HUChVzx5fSeDwUlzOVOVS2DNPdn-zXhtJ7Vs7LPwydCknIl-zFB0dV1N19S8Ezg0XSLtYBezCt11aB3GNtHDg1ZlzNEKocp8eew=w400-h179" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal">The ONS dataset only includes the number of non-covid
deaths equivalent to the number expected to have occurred in the third week after
vaccination only. So the expected deaths for the first two weeks post first dose
vaccination are missing. This is the case for all age groups 60+. For example, here is the 70-79 age group:<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgGdDnSlrx7304IWSTBYEVNQ6ZPhZXgeyWgp2mPU2nMpcJ7vxzRiUp3xLYU-zdW-dppmep8fDXLb2f-nYdSiSek5HEk_tebxfItv6sFrQwvDaVXXsj3GatGT90tx1xe_X-CF-oOftBKIthYuHuRYr3xpoN1c665YRyY0rfUmfYuXHkZz0KOdycmpzrAgQ=s602" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="602" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgGdDnSlrx7304IWSTBYEVNQ6ZPhZXgeyWgp2mPU2nMpcJ7vxzRiUp3xLYU-zdW-dppmep8fDXLb2f-nYdSiSek5HEk_tebxfItv6sFrQwvDaVXXsj3GatGT90tx1xe_X-CF-oOftBKIthYuHuRYr3xpoN1c665YRyY0rfUmfYuXHkZz0KOdycmpzrAgQ=w640-h330" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">For covid deaths the same patterns are evident, across all
age groups 60+. This is a significant and rather troubling anomaly warranting
an explanation. Covid deaths are also implausibly lower than expectations: <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg7JY9ue5iL5_L29fymncUB2m3hkCmpxU9akvlSy4-Q6yc9T5x9H9K3_Hkv1XcxouMbZdILjsRDtMwcSenu2n43DW2-c96uxMyhvQReK_rSdmZwVke7pmJ316XC5ak6nUh9L83pnewSvq1Kf4LRcWfVuwpHGMFkkSFI45U1wp_ISyYM04Zzsu8rETSr0w=s602" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="602" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg7JY9ue5iL5_L29fymncUB2m3hkCmpxU9akvlSy4-Q6yc9T5x9H9K3_Hkv1XcxouMbZdILjsRDtMwcSenu2n43DW2-c96uxMyhvQReK_rSdmZwVke7pmJ316XC5ak6nUh9L83pnewSvq1Kf4LRcWfVuwpHGMFkkSFI45U1wp_ISyYM04Zzsu8rETSr0w=w400-h175" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal">Here the expected covid deaths occurring in the 80+ age
group during the first two weeks are missing from the ONS data:</p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgrrWlz54D4rjKfyMbdW3idr2NjQyrE_8aGLJGOtDvnlRIV5dFQVlyNvd7BSsDpejXjWflkwXhiLt9yLxb2Ph7ClQTcOaI0G4ivQb4QpFExvQq2Wd6i2jB75w4ZtzfeNhSDLvJle6bdMyV6Juc1KfLbqGRrNKOrqUj9yV0baO0xIj7bnWu74MKTlt16zA=s602" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="602" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgrrWlz54D4rjKfyMbdW3idr2NjQyrE_8aGLJGOtDvnlRIV5dFQVlyNvd7BSsDpejXjWflkwXhiLt9yLxb2Ph7ClQTcOaI0G4ivQb4QpFExvQq2Wd6i2jB75w4ZtzfeNhSDLvJle6bdMyV6Juc1KfLbqGRrNKOrqUj9yV0baO0xIj7bnWu74MKTlt16zA=w640-h330" width="640" /></a></div>Note that the peaks in the graphs are synchronised with
the vaccine roll out for each age group and hence are not natural or due to
random error. Errors appear systematic and strongly suggest that deaths
have been miscategorised as hypothesised <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28055.09124" target="_blank">in our last research paper</a>.<p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A variety of factors could have led to deaths being
omitted, including miscategorisation, reporting lags and data handling or
transcription errors:</p>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgqW_v9LDMVCvju-Yyh4ZkOG9gf0eXwCsZfoA8Z-iGx29USMmmpcLL6xP_I1AkMVNmaSOVN5K5e9WuesyZQVQTqVpGWtQnVTjZmE_5tWPsDuXyUiMFk9Wz8YTUHz0kBcLzmVzcVWd74i-89hO-X5Z3g-0VQBNEqx8GR1_arP3XpHcJcuC-4V7x4gtXL3Q=s1379" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="915" data-original-width="1379" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgqW_v9LDMVCvju-Yyh4ZkOG9gf0eXwCsZfoA8Z-iGx29USMmmpcLL6xP_I1AkMVNmaSOVN5K5e9WuesyZQVQTqVpGWtQnVTjZmE_5tWPsDuXyUiMFk9Wz8YTUHz0kBcLzmVzcVWd74i-89hO-X5Z3g-0VQBNEqx8GR1_arP3XpHcJcuC-4V7x4gtXL3Q=w640-h424" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Vaccination record data flow highlighting potential sources of error</td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal">Hence, we believe that the dataset is corrupted, making any inferences
about vaccine efficacy or safety, reliant on the data, moot. <br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">We have presented these findings to the ONS and they have
acknowledged in correspondence that our analyses are valuable and important. They have also promised to release all raw data to allow
independent analysis and to investigate the serious anomalies reported by our
paper.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Clare Craig has <a href="https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1499443534021210120?s=20&t=fxHIo-OX5j-NNpCY-qPBZw" target="_blank">published a twitter thread with more insights from the research</a>. <br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Full details of the new paper:</p><p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Craig, C., Neil, M., Fenton, N., McLachlan, S., Smalley, J.,
Guetzkow, J., Engler, J., Russell, D., Rose, J. (2022). "Official mortality data
for England reveal systematic undercounting of deaths occurring within first
two weeks of Covid-19 vaccination". <a href="https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248">https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248</a></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<br /><br /><br /><br />Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-67018843166546525372022-03-03T03:42:00.013-08:002022-04-22T06:53:59.750-07:00Why are UKHSA obfuscating data on stillbirths by vaccine status: just another statistical illusion?<p><i><b>(See 22 April Update below)</b></i><br /></p><p>In the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1057599/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week-8.pdf " target="_blank">latest UKHSA Feb 2022 Covid-19 vaccine surveillance report</a>, Figure 8 suggests that there is no increased risk of stillbirth
from vaccination:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOR2ECNs-lmf8bbVMqXaRcNksLrLkEh3k7-s2kdYUPWE1D5H2CnvW8Kd_gcXilxj-y4xc9L5nQ1NXghwWomKlfltOC6g_xFGtepKOtntx0nolklxBT7YD_KSZkdWJKTUTylm3LO9hyMCZZ42CI1NkyIxYGJgiXPhbTccUt8VKTYEr9oZSQpgYaZZTecw=s1122" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="781" data-original-width="1122" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOR2ECNs-lmf8bbVMqXaRcNksLrLkEh3k7-s2kdYUPWE1D5H2CnvW8Kd_gcXilxj-y4xc9L5nQ1NXghwWomKlfltOC6g_xFGtepKOtntx0nolklxBT7YD_KSZkdWJKTUTylm3LO9hyMCZZ42CI1NkyIxYGJgiXPhbTccUt8VKTYEr9oZSQpgYaZZTecw=w400-h279" width="400" /></a></div><!--[if !mso]>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
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<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><p class="MsoNormal">This seems like good news but, as <a href="https://twitter.com/SoutarHamish/status/1499104524023255048?s=20&t=5T-QdKyJz2k03iYCKVSrew" target="_blank">pointed out by Hamish Soutar</a>, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span class="css-901oao">women vaccinated prior
to pregnancy are included in "no doses in pregnancy".</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This is an outrageous piece of obfuscation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even though the rest of the report contains quite
a lot of detailed raw data, there is no raw data provided to answer the simple
question: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is the stillbirth rate higher
for those unvaccinated than those vaccinated (before or during pregnancy)? </i></p><p class="MsoNormal">As implied by Hamish, Fig 8 <b>does
not answer this question</b>. To give a feel for how easy it is to arrive at figure
like that even if stillbirth rates were significantly <i><b>higher </b></i>in the vaccinated,
consider the following hypothetical example for women whose pregnancies ended, say, between April 2021 and Feb
2022 (<i><b>UPDATE see video below for visual explanation</b></i>):</p><p class="MsoNormal">Suppose 10,000 women received at least one jab pre-pregnancy
and 10,000 women received no jabs pre-pregnancy, and that these further break down
into the following 4 categories:</p>
<ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Cat 1.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>(unvaccinated
pre pregnancy and unvaccinated during pregnancy): 2000 </li><li>Cat 2.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>(unvaccinated
pre pregnancy but at least one jab during pregnancy): 8000</li><li>Cat 3.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> (at least
one jab pre pregnancy but unvaccinated during pregnancy): 8000</li><li>Cat 4.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>(at least one
jab pre pregnancy and at least one jab during pregnancy): 2000</li></ul>
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Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
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Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
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</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}
</style>
<![endif]--><p class="MsoNormal">Suppose the stillbirth numbers are:</p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none; margin-left: 28.1pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 85.6pt;" valign="top" width="114">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"> </p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.45pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Total women</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 4cm;" valign="top" width="151">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Number of
stillbirths</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Stillbirth
rate</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 85.6pt;" valign="top" width="114">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Cat 1</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.45pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">2000</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 4cm;" valign="top" width="151">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">20</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 85.6pt;" valign="top" width="114">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Cat 2</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.45pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">8000</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 4cm;" valign="top" width="151">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">96</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.2%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 85.6pt;" valign="top" width="114">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Cat 3</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.45pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">8000</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 4cm;" valign="top" width="151">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">104</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.3%</p>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 85.6pt;" valign="top" width="114">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Cat 4</p>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.45pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">2000</p>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 4cm;" valign="top" width="151">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">28</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.4%</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal">So we are assuming in our purely hypothetical example that the stillbirth rate is higher in each of the categories containing vaccinated women. Then we can present the results as follows:</p>
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<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 212.4pt;" valign="top" width="283">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"> </p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.6pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Total</p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 106.3pt;" valign="top" width="142">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Number of
stillbirths</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Stillbirth
rate</p>
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<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Never
vaccinated (Cat 1)</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">2000</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">20</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1%</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Vaccinated at
least once (Cat 2+Cat 3+Cat 4)</p>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.6pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">18000</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 106.3pt;" valign="top" width="142">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">228</p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.27%</p>
</td>
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</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal">..which answers the earlier question and clearly shows the increased risk of stillbirth in the
vaccinated.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">...Or, we can do what UKHSA have done in their Figure 8, which ‘shows’
that there is no increased risk of stillbirth from vaccination:</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"> </p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Total</p>
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<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 106.3pt;" valign="top" width="142">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Number of
stillbirths</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Stillbirth
rate</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Unvaccinated during
pregnancy (C1+C3)</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">10000</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">124</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.24%</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Vaccinated at
least once during pregnancy (C2+C4)</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">10000</p>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 106.3pt;" valign="top" width="142">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">124</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.24%</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">All women (C1+C2+C3+C4)</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">20000</p>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 106.3pt;" valign="top" width="142">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">248</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">1.24%</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">In fact, it is not hard to produce hypothetical
examples in which (with the same stillbirth rates assumed above but different numbers in the
categories) the vaccine appears to <b><i>reduce</i></b> risk of stillbirth using
the UKHSA ‘method’. </p><p class="MsoNormal">UPDATE: Here is a 4 minute video explaining the above:</p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IV_9GqTdGF4" width="320" youtube-src-id="IV_9GqTdGF4"></iframe></div><p></p><p><b>22 April 2022 Update:</b></p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">The <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1070356/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-16.pdf " target="_blank">latest (21 April 2021) UKHSA covid surveillance report</a> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>continues with the same obfuscation. As a very timely example of the problems with the UKHSA
reporting, today one of Britain’s leading athletes who won gold at the Tokyo Olympics
in August 2021 <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CcpczmtjY1a/?igshid=YTgzYjQ4ZTY=" target="_blank">revealed she suffered a miscarriage in November 21 and an ectopic pregnancy in mid January 2022.</a> She says (in the comment attached to her latest photo)</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></p><blockquote><i>“Since the Olympics we haven’t had much luck and it’s been the hardest few months I’ve ever had to go through. Jason and I fell pregnant immediately after the games and we were absolutely chuffed to bits. But unfortunately in November when commentating at the track champions league I miscarried our baby at 9 weeks. I’ve never felt so lost and sad. It felt like a part of me had been torn away.
I grabbed for my safety blanket, bike riding! I found myself back in my happy place training again. I then caught Covid in mid January and found myself feeling really very unwell. I didn’t have typical covid symptoms and I just felt I needed to go to hospital. A day later I found myself in A&E being rushed to theatre because I was having an ectopic pregnancy. Scared doesn’t even come close. I lost a falopion tube that day. I’ve always known I was tough, but sometimes life pushes you to an unbearable limit."</i></blockquote><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">She would have to have got double vaxxed shortly before the games
to be allowed to take part. While there may be no reason to suspect the vaxx
had anything to do with these two unfortunate outcomes, both would be classified
in the UKHSA "no doses in pregnancy" category</p>
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width: calc(100% + 4px);"><a aria-hidden="true" class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-1dbjc4n r-1niwhzg r-1loqt21 r-1pi2tsx r-1ny4l3l r-o7ynqc r-6416eg r-13qz1uu keychainify-checked" href="https://twitter.com/D__Olivier" role="link" tabindex="-1"><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-14lw9ot r-sdzlij r-1wyvozj r-1udh08x r-633pao r-u8s1d r-1v2oles r-desppf" style="height: calc(100% - 4px); width: calc(100% - 4px);"><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-1adg3ll r-1udh08x"><div class="r-1p0dtai r-1pi2tsx r-1d2f490 r-u8s1d r-ipm5af r-13qz1uu"><div aria-label="" class="css-1dbjc4n r-1p0dtai r-1mlwlqe r-1d2f490 r-1udh08x r-u8s1d r-zchlnj r-ipm5af r-417010"><img alt="" class="css-9pa8cd" draggable="true" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/968944387811151873/BpGlH_dc_normal.jpg" /></div></div></div></div><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-sdzlij r-1wyvozj r-1udh08x r-u8s1d r-1v2oles r-desppf" style="height: calc(100% - 4px); width: calc(100% - 4px);"><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-12181gd r-1pi2tsx r-1ny4l3l r-o7ynqc r-6416eg r-13qz1uu"><br /></div></div></a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></article></div></div></div><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-14lw9ot r-jxzhtn r-1ljd8xs r-13l2t4g r-1phboty r-1jgb5lz r-11wrixw r-61z16t r-1ye8kvj r-13qz1uu r-184en5c" data-testid="primaryColumn"><div class="css-1dbjc4n"><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-1jgb5lz r-1ye8kvj r-13qz1uu"><section aria-labelledby="accessible-list-68" class="css-1dbjc4n" role="region"></section></div></div></div>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com93tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-83631394935601452092022-02-05T03:06:00.007-08:002022-02-05T04:29:55.751-08:00After 20 months main stream media finally notices problem with PCR testing<p> </p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgEZuJrFOEgfVQnnIr9piRskixihV0qbn-8Pe1SPiZlSAPEPxlJBSJBdMYCgv5SuqXZ3nPmqGmLzz2pEzSyqGv4YdHX1t1jG8TnMu4ekM39rAWCMT3Fy4URhlAeZu_P4itzE9IKsty9D8wKUrdmfX3xaqID23-hMiax2DOYMUjjkszb9k6fHXv4cLiEMQ=s2441" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2318" data-original-width="2441" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgEZuJrFOEgfVQnnIr9piRskixihV0qbn-8Pe1SPiZlSAPEPxlJBSJBdMYCgv5SuqXZ3nPmqGmLzz2pEzSyqGv4YdHX1t1jG8TnMu4ekM39rAWCMT3Fy4URhlAeZu_P4itzE9IKsty9D8wKUrdmfX3xaqID23-hMiax2DOYMUjjkszb9k6fHXv4cLiEMQ=w400-h380" width="400" /></a></p><p></p><p>So, while many of us have been highlighting the problem for a long time (and called peddlers of misinformation for doing so), the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/04/shambolic-covid-pcr-testing-rules-meant-one-three-isolated-never/" target="_blank">main stream media is finally noticing</a> that there may have been problems with PCR testing - especially of asymptomatic people - all along. </p><p>For the record, here are just a few of the many articles we have written highlighting the problems with PCR testing and why it should never have been used routinely on people with no symptoms.</p><p>Blog posts:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a class="keychainify-checked" href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/02/uk-lighthouse-laboratories-testing-for.html" target="_blank">UK
lighthouse laboratories testing for SARS-COV-2 may have breached WHO
Emergency Use Assessment and potentially violated Manufacturer
Instructions for Use</a> <br /></li><li><a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/03/more-insights-on-extent-of-covid-19.html" target="_blank">More insights on the extent of COVID-19 among asymptomaticsand false positive PCR testing rates</a></li><li><a class="keychainify-checked" href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-cambridge-study-testing.html" target="_blank">The Cambridge study and its implications for the claim that "1 in 3 people with the virus have no symptoms"</a></li><li><a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2020/12/on-false-positives-in-covid19-testing.html" target="_blank">On false positives in COVID19 testing again: we are being misled over confirmatory testing </a> <br /></li><li><a class="steem-keychain-checked keychainify-checked" href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2020/12/pooled-covid19-testing-makes-data-on.html" target="_blank">About pooled testing</a></li><li><a class="steem-keychain-checked keychainify-checked" href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/02/claim-that-1-in-3-people-who-have-virus.html" target="_blank">Implications to the Government's claim that "1 in 3 people with the virus has no symptoms"</a></li><li><a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2020/12/pooled-covid19-testing-makes-data-on.html" target="_blank">Pooled COVID19 testing makes the data on 'cases' even more
dubious</a></li><li><a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-impact-of-covid-false-positives.html" target="_blank">The impact of false positives in Covid testing</a> </li><li><a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2020/10/why-we-know-so-little-about-covid-19.html" target="_blank">Why we know so little about COVID-19 from testing data - andwhy some extra easy-to-get data would make a big difference</a> </li><li><a class="steem-keychain-checked keychainify-checked" href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2020/09/dont-panic-limits-to-what-we-know-about.html" target="_blank">Don't panic: limits to what we know about Covid-19 PC testing, inferred infection rates and alse positive rates </a></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span><a class="keychainify-checked" href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2020/12/uk-covid-testing-data-remarkable.html" target="_blank">UK Covid Testing data: Remarkable relationship between number of tests and positivity rate when we drill down to regions</a></span></span></span></span></span> </span></li></ul><p> Formal Articles:</p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
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table.MsoNormalTable
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mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
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<![endif]--></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Neil, M. (2021). Positive results from UK single gene PCR
testing for SARS-COV-2 may be inconclusive, negative or detecting past
infections. British Medical Journal. Retrieved from
<a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n208/rr-3">https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n208/rr-3</a></li><li><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">Fenton, N. E., Neil, M., & McLachlan, G. S. (2021). What proportion of people with COVID-19 do not get symptoms? <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a class="keychainify-checked" href="https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.33939.60968" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.33939.60968</a></span></span></li><li><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">Fenton, N. E. (2020) How to
explain an increasing proportion of people testing positive for COVID if
there is neither an increase in proportion of genuine cases nor
increase in the false positive rate. </span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a class="keychainify-checked" href="https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27902.20806" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27902.20806</a></span></span></span></span></li></ul><p>Videos:</p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3qm3zI0j_OA" width="320" youtube-src-id="3qm3zI0j_OA"></iframe></div><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jDecehzaVQU" width="320" youtube-src-id="jDecehzaVQU"></iframe></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></span></span></span></p><p><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> <br /></span></span></span></span></p><p><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></span> <br /></span></span></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com56tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-75473539679930485962022-02-02T12:31:00.003-08:002022-02-02T12:35:52.325-08:00Update: BMJ rejects - without review - paper highlighting problems with ONS vaccine mortality data <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7-QVCCprdrcreqMOwWobIAAzMNb-1Y1-89ZFeY6yKtwNLV0Y2d7wxUVDwn6nnfwzIGL2zSRHiWJz-AluRcFI63N8jWUaIX2Meb4-y5p1AIu_I_RqY2EdX9ntYNB1bvW1wUkYiPgqp83MR8tnVve1c-AB4vyMqYxBSYo_uH2lWCbIHEbOmO8vrWaNoXg=s1280" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1280" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7-QVCCprdrcreqMOwWobIAAzMNb-1Y1-89ZFeY6yKtwNLV0Y2d7wxUVDwn6nnfwzIGL2zSRHiWJz-AluRcFI63N8jWUaIX2Meb4-y5p1AIu_I_RqY2EdX9ntYNB1bvW1wUkYiPgqp83MR8tnVve1c-AB4vyMqYxBSYo_uH2lWCbIHEbOmO8vrWaNoXg=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">Previous blog posts <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2022/01/debunking-hypothesis-that-healthy.html" target="_blank">here</a> have discussed the various iterations of the work done by a group of researchers led by Prof Martin Neil looking at the ONS Vaccine Surveillance reports.<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">The original version of <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination" target="_blank">this paper</a>** showed that
idiosyncrasies in the ONS data on vaccine efficacy and safety could only be
explained by systemic reporting errors which, when adjusted for, showed there
was no evidence that the vaccines reduce all-cause mortality. Idiosyncracies included (among others) the observation that, in each age group, there was a spike in <i><b>non-Covid mortality</b></i> in the <i><b>unvaccinated </b></i>at exactly the same time as the vaccine roll-out peaked for that age group. This suggested the possibility that people who happened to die very shortly after vaccination were being misclassified as unvaccinated. <br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">The paper got over 300,000 reads on Researchgate. While some disputed our findings, their objections were all based on the claim that the idiosyncrasies in the ONS data could be explained by the fact that the most
unhealthy people were not getting vaccinated, i.e that there was a "healthy vaccinee" effect.<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">So, we did further analysis and
produced the revised version of the paper showing why this healthy vaccinee
effect was not supportable. Moreover, even if it were, it would still mean that all
of the ONS conclusions about vaccine efficacy and safety were systemically flawed and biased because they failed to
adjust for this effect. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The only other type of criticism of the paper was that it was not
peer reviewed – despite its many authors (including senior clinicians who had to remain anonymous to protect their careers) and hundreds of comments and informal reviews from researchers who read the paper on ResearchGate.
</p><p class="MsoNormal">Of course, as has been noted many times here, the main journals (and even the pre-print servers medrXiv and arXiv) have been systematically rejecting papers without review if they challenge the 'official' Covid narrative. However, we did submit the latest version to the BMJ two weeks ago. Today they rejected it without review or any explanation why it would
not be reviewed.</p>
<p> </p><p>**Latest version: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination </p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">"Official mortality data for England suggest systematic
miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19
vaccination", Martin Neil, Norman Fenton , Joel Smalley, Clare Craig, Josh
Guetzkow, Scott McLachlan, Jonathan Engler, Dan Russell and Jessica Ros. Jan 2022. Available from: <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination</a></p><p> Previous version: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483</a><br /></p><p> </p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-53834511357251082992022-01-24T12:20:00.010-08:002022-01-29T04:17:28.580-08:00Computing years of lost life: why actuaries really need to be able to do counterfactual reasoning<p></p><p><!--[if !mso]>
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Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">Hugh Osmond recently put out <a href="https://twitter.com/hughosmond/status/1485018201633312769?s=20" target="_blank">this interesting twitter thread</a>:</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiw25-85mk9hq7OiRPHssjRWWOqmSw_Z35F8w1nA4fRFbKrx7TMEXic11YeulKBwBbqSonwKBXWhl-ofI4dH-McfT2dhLykiXIsagP6sSN0vIQ2QVebwLO-l4zDDqmyWN0-8mFsuMKUQP1eHE7MaFsaho-_vhTLAEWLt6k0kb9er9Z51TAaCUecouVv6Q=s462" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="204" data-original-width="462" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiw25-85mk9hq7OiRPHssjRWWOqmSw_Z35F8w1nA4fRFbKrx7TMEXic11YeulKBwBbqSonwKBXWhl-ofI4dH-McfT2dhLykiXIsagP6sSN0vIQ2QVebwLO-l4zDDqmyWN0-8mFsuMKUQP1eHE7MaFsaho-_vhTLAEWLt6k0kb9er9Z51TAaCUecouVv6Q=w400-h176" width="400" /></a></p><p class="MsoNormal">Although the average age of death in the UK is around 82, if
a person reaches 82 then on average (i.e. without knowing any details of the
particular person) the person can expect to live about another 8 years. We know
the average age of a person dying from Covid is also 82, so it seems reasonable
to assume that a typical person dying from Covid loses 8 life years. But, as Hugh
points out, this reasoning is flawed. Hugh provides what is essentially an informal argument. In what follows we provide a formal explanation.<br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The question we are trying to answer is:</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36pt;">Knowing that an individual (let’s
say it’s a man called Fred) has died from Covid at the age of 82, how much
longer would Fred have lived if he had <b><i>not got</i></b> Covid?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This is a classic ‘counterfactual’ question. We want to know
what would happen to Fred in an alternative world if something that happened in
the real world (namely, getting Covid) was changed. And we want to take account of
everything we can learn about Fred that will be unchanged in the counterfactual
world from what happened in the real world. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Crucially, because we know that
Fred died of Covid, we learn from the real world that (compared to the average
82 year-old) Fred is much more likely to also have had some critical
pre-existing illness. And this knowledge must be retained in the counterfactual
world. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As very well explained by <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2018/12/book-review-judea-pearl-and-dana.html" target="_blank">Judea Pearl</a>, answering
counterfactual questions requires a causal model and an inference method that are
beyond what can be achieved with traditional statistical methods. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In what follows we use illustrative and
simplified assumptions to explain this counterfactual reasoning.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">First, we need a causal model of the ‘real world’. Such a basic
causal model is shown in Figure 1.</p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhsw8U7_tRNGABgelEkKG68tRojt3XJWCqoCQhpevc7nYckmSMH1qJv3Lg4EeoQINdEBPXybqHGE6_sc3oskL2iI3l5m5mkC9crErUtPJ9y9mpiZ0cuMeEcES3FVcK4Syo0u5t6nQsrsm8-bKDhAyfBwVVRgzuGaesg41UyAcNx7kY6LEsPvQ25_zxGA=s678" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="426" data-original-width="678" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhsw8U7_tRNGABgelEkKG68tRojt3XJWCqoCQhpevc7nYckmSMH1qJv3Lg4EeoQINdEBPXybqHGE6_sc3oskL2iI3l5m5mkC9crErUtPJ9y9mpiZ0cuMeEcES3FVcK4Syo0u5t6nQsrsm8-bKDhAyfBwVVRgzuGaesg41UyAcNx7kY6LEsPvQ25_zxGA=w400-h251" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;">Figure <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">1</span> Basic causal model (for 82 year-olds)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">This tells us that whether a
person suffers a Covid death depends not just on whether the person becomes
infected, but also on many other factors including whether the person has a
pre-existing critical illness. Similarly, a person’s life expectancy depends on
the same factors (among others).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">When we assign prior probabilities
to the nodes ‘Covid infection’ and ‘Pre-existing critical illness’, and
conditional probabilities to the nodes ‘Covid death’ and ‘life expectancy’,
then the causal model becomes a <a href="https://youtu.be/v00gk1_DI9M" target="_blank">Bayesian network</a> for which we can perform
Bayesian inference. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">In what follows we use the
following assumed prior and conditional probabilities:</p>
<ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Covid infection: 1%</li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Pre-existing critical
illness: 10%</li><li>Covid death given Covid
infection is false = 0%</li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Covid death given Covid
infection and Pre-existing critical illness = 10%<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Covid death given Covid
infection and no Pre-existing critical illness = 0.1%</li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>The full set of conditional
probabilities for life expectancy is given in Table 1</li></ul>
<p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="break-after: avoid; page-break-after: avoid; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Table <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">1</span> Conditional probability table
for 'life expectancy'</span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNo5O1T3PYA915AcbOR7oehH_clf-Q3qT3Tz2QbIVhBeU3hO3UOhl-zlrL4AYVQHQsDs28eoxScEh_LP9P-PzxR8QvvNCcDbuv6XSQ7nygbP4Cl9z1jMfHwe6AZi0RIsrTQjAQn2CZ5lApryEjBgthBrex3YpEckq96KJLdea9BNPKbbVz1SKUzdTghQ=s265" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="175" data-original-width="265" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNo5O1T3PYA915AcbOR7oehH_clf-Q3qT3Tz2QbIVhBeU3hO3UOhl-zlrL4AYVQHQsDs28eoxScEh_LP9P-PzxR8QvvNCcDbuv6XSQ7nygbP4Cl9z1jMfHwe6AZi0RIsrTQjAQn2CZ5lApryEjBgthBrex3YpEckq96KJLdea9BNPKbbVz1SKUzdTghQ=w400-h264" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Changing any of these probability
assumptions (within reason) does not change the thrust of the argument (readers
are free to try out the model and make their own changes using their favourite
Bayesian network software**).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">With these assumptions we get the
prior marginal probabilities shown in Figure 2.</p>
<p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgauoLhSRvFfZ2Dx373uhmuT0QbY2A0FB2NqBMvPmy4ZjJiaMyTsyOJd5oI3pZ6vBxT1GQEVIxnwr5si92xiYaYrhExGe2PTsHXKgtA8WDZlkur6okdQbtZabmz8WYrb2r7-XqMCXbY0o-OwCwWObOLTRvZCLPS840flYrCuYXjI81ROs3J4XCVLl2dDw=s361" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="292" data-original-width="361" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgauoLhSRvFfZ2Dx373uhmuT0QbY2A0FB2NqBMvPmy4ZjJiaMyTsyOJd5oI3pZ6vBxT1GQEVIxnwr5si92xiYaYrhExGe2PTsHXKgtA8WDZlkur6okdQbtZabmz8WYrb2r7-XqMCXbY0o-OwCwWObOLTRvZCLPS840flYrCuYXjI81ROs3J4XCVLl2dDw=w400-h324" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Figure <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">2</span> Prior marginal probabilities</span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">So, in the real world the median
life expectancy of an average 82-year-old is 8 years. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">But, if we know that an individual
dies from Covid then, while obviously this means that ‘Covid infection’ must be
true, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>through Bayesian inference we also get
the revised probability for ‘pre-existing critical illness’ shown in Figures 3.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi7IJdWvVx23iyOwOzjFjp404EQeB1Zp-nwYR45GxVEkolyMpmd_nZUM3EzvT3gw5CWciW_dbery2hHMheGvbQl_dcvuO3ZszUwSClEPxyEYq0Ouy2uIl6qOIBKzbyI1YfGVcKmfQmHYjXguCgYaemRrbzK0Kvlnnvwi9l1hxE4mvNgQfIj_LRBwtFdXg=s391" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="316" data-original-width="391" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi7IJdWvVx23iyOwOzjFjp404EQeB1Zp-nwYR45GxVEkolyMpmd_nZUM3EzvT3gw5CWciW_dbery2hHMheGvbQl_dcvuO3ZszUwSClEPxyEYq0Ouy2uIl6qOIBKzbyI1YfGVcKmfQmHYjXguCgYaemRrbzK0Kvlnnvwi9l1hxE4mvNgQfIj_LRBwtFdXg=w400-h324" width="400" /></a></div><p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Figure <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">3</span> Revised probabilities are observing Covid death</span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">We can now use this new
information about the probability this individual has pre-existing critical
illness in a counterfactual world where he is not infected with Covid. The counterfactual
model required for this is shown in Figure 4.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxIF0qWu-7oBVhWCJIaJWkM6RvFFrV8GWsKijwLX7-hX6ppeIp5YksZZN4sYBXFeo2Xm1DN3GNd2n-kfn-yQAYR3KVCSg3HqyEIAz6UmRDulUpK94bq5lPV6RCEIcEfmQccg758xNkScj1_sjt96BfKgQwFdiujUSgqVows49zSXXkRT8KQoeJkVrhtg=s602" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="318" data-original-width="602" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxIF0qWu-7oBVhWCJIaJWkM6RvFFrV8GWsKijwLX7-hX6ppeIp5YksZZN4sYBXFeo2Xm1DN3GNd2n-kfn-yQAYR3KVCSg3HqyEIAz6UmRDulUpK94bq5lPV6RCEIcEfmQccg758xNkScj1_sjt96BfKgQwFdiujUSgqVows49zSXXkRT8KQoeJkVrhtg=w640-h338" width="640" /></a></p><p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Figure <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">4</span> Counterfactual world</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The ‘Covid infection’ and ‘life
expectancy’ nodes in the counterfactual world are simply copies of the same
named nodes from the real world model. They have exactly the same prior and
conditional probability tables respectively. When we enter ‘Covid infection’ is
false in the counterfactual world, we get the revised probability distribution
for life expectancy. This individual has a median of 2 years life expectancy,
rather than the 8 years.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The inference performed in this
counterfactual model is not possible using the original model alone.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">For more information on Bayesian networks
and counterfactual reasoning see <a href="http://bayesianrisk.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">our book</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTav8ucfG_pl0ifzckwXX8Uh_LzekFvgE" target="_blank">short videos</a>.<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> **The model <a href="http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/Models/counterfactual_life_expectancy.cmpx" target="_blank">used here can be downloaded</a> and run in the <a href="https://www.agenarisk.com/agenarisk-free-trial" target="_blank">free trial version of AgenaRisk</a> (we declare an interest - Directors of the company that owns the software).<br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <b>29 Jan update: Here is a 5 minute video explanation on the above with an even simpler model (that can be <a href="http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/Models/counterfactual_life_expectancy2.cmpx">downloaded</a> by right clicking)<br /></b></p><b> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DSqjZ71GWCY" width="320" youtube-src-id="DSqjZ71GWCY"></iframe></div><br /></b>
<p> </p><br /><br />Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-38557323492558160092022-01-13T10:56:00.006-08:002022-02-03T02:41:48.915-08:00Debunking the hypothesis that the "healthy vaccinee" effect explains anomalies in ONS mortality data<p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><b>See <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2022/02/update-bmj-rejects-without-review-paper.html" target="_blank">this update</a> about this work. </b></i></span></span><br /></p><p> In our <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483" target="_blank">previous report</a> led by Martin Neil<span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">, we showed that ONS England data from November did NOT support vaccine efficacy claims once we adjust for obvious anomalies in the ONS data. Some, including the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31october2021" target="_blank">ONS themselves in their December report,</a> imply that our conclusions were wrong because the anomalies we identified are caused by the so-called "healthy vaccinee" effect. </span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">We examined the new ONS data and found NO evidence to support this claim. We have therefore produced a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination?channel=doi&linkId=61df0895034dda1b9ef194e3&showFulltext=true">new and significantly revised report</a><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination"> </a>with our updated analysis.</span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">The healthy vaccinee effect is the hypothesis that people closer to death are too ill to be vaccinated and so become concentrated in a shrinking unvaccinated population, thus increasing the group’s mortality rate. </span> <span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">This hypothesis </span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">to explain their anomalous data</span> is stated on Page 5 of the ONS report: </span></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Page 5: “<i>The all-cause ASMRs for the year-to-date were lower in the
first three weeks after a vaccine dose than in subsequent weeks after that
dose. This could be because of a “healthy vaccinee effect” where people who are
ill (either due to COVID-19 or another relevant illness) are likely to delay
vaccination. Therefore, the people who have been recently vaccinated are, in
the short term, in better health than the general population</i>.”</p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">However, this not only contradicts <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948353/Priority_groups_for_coronavirus__COVID-19__vaccination_-_advice_from_the_JCVI__2_December_2020.pdf" target="_blank">NHS guidance</a> report ("</span>Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation: advice on priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination", <span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Page 3), which states: <br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhMRFJUoreIUCMfL1cw1v-7RGtcaT26p4mX6z21xnr5XcXj-WBokRhMhAK58BVejHy4CHSxTfbniBNhBwj1vkCkT3fC6mJyBuFv9ppkZxNeoajV1bVsXQk0F-SlDvEvGrjFz8fyoVOdrQgVgctYm5qDEgiOY_UlY-YBs_jtFYdSaFozaocvdk_oFf3Fyw=s1192" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="1192" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhMRFJUoreIUCMfL1cw1v-7RGtcaT26p4mX6z21xnr5XcXj-WBokRhMhAK58BVejHy4CHSxTfbniBNhBwj1vkCkT3fC6mJyBuFv9ppkZxNeoajV1bVsXQk0F-SlDvEvGrjFz8fyoVOdrQgVgctYm5qDEgiOY_UlY-YBs_jtFYdSaFozaocvdk_oFf3Fyw=w640-h236" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">but is also contradicted by ONS on page 8 of their own report: <br /></span></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Page 8: "<i>…the vaccination roll-out was also prioritised by health
status of individuals, with the extremely clinically vulnerable and those with
underlying health conditions being vaccinated earlier…</i>”</p>
<p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">If the ONS hypothesis was correct then we would see: </span></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">a) The percentage of the unvaccinated in poor health rise as vaccine rollout progresses </span></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">b) A steady non-Covid mortality rate among the unhealthy (because they are dying at same rate as they always have done).</span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">To support their claim the ONS released the percentage of 70-79 age group with "very poor" health in each vaccination category.
Oddly, the vaccinated population contains a higher percentage of those in very poor health and this increases over time. <span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Surprisingly the unvaccinated population has the LOWEST concentration of the unhealthy and the percentage declines over time:</span></span></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi-WXjT7XoyPHHzSd_q5SqwJlyPRjVA3UuuN9ceaA62cnMqEwXeiqYcaB2YQznBVSc1ykcP7xe7OmvhQPegmL60JeTnGFdXXAJ4hczSaSX4QM-fTYejI5gcDjr44amVTEPAzyrKXnWNgr73Dl-nzAR31UNRhsZA2GgINltSIKajdHe3Ase8vBnD926QVQ=s940" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="518" data-original-width="940" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi-WXjT7XoyPHHzSd_q5SqwJlyPRjVA3UuuN9ceaA62cnMqEwXeiqYcaB2YQznBVSc1ykcP7xe7OmvhQPegmL60JeTnGFdXXAJ4hczSaSX4QM-fTYejI5gcDjr44amVTEPAzyrKXnWNgr73Dl-nzAR31UNRhsZA2GgINltSIKajdHe3Ase8vBnD926QVQ=w640-h352" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">In this unhealthy sub-population we found the non-Covid mortality rate for the unvaccinated is HIGHER than for the vaccinated. Both rates should be equivalent
Again, we see unnatural spikes in non-Covid mortality just after vaccine roll out as seen before in whole population:</span><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"> <br /></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQ7UbRMtVei8uojip2zZnrspMyS2kBb6_XiOtl_T1WB6GpAIH1b57spDoR6loUcAGXOtTRT8dxj59xmsV0lTLhUOesnkFxJO0f5neLQF15DBKV-xVw_dQ8L426Mo9nEYaO1n11yKrka_DcBsx64V6aEF4QtavsV3jCr-VrFLyuU8qav8EqJSdr_OxANQ=s940" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="940" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQ7UbRMtVei8uojip2zZnrspMyS2kBb6_XiOtl_T1WB6GpAIH1b57spDoR6loUcAGXOtTRT8dxj59xmsV0lTLhUOesnkFxJO0f5neLQF15DBKV-xVw_dQ8L426Mo9nEYaO1n11yKrka_DcBsx64V6aEF4QtavsV3jCr-VrFLyuU8qav8EqJSdr_OxANQ=w640-h432" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Therefore, those in poorest health were NOT more likely to remain unvaccinated.
Also, there is a rise in non-Covid mortality, coincidental with vaccine rollout that is not only seen in the population as a whole but is also seen in those with the poorest health.</span> </span> </span></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">We conclude that the "healthy vaccine effect" cannot explain the anomalies we discovered in the ONS data and believe it is up to advocates for this hypothesis to now prove their case using the released data.</span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Full report: <br /></span> </span></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination" target="_blank"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">Martin Neil, Norman Fenton, Joel Smalley, Clare Craig, Joshua Guetzkow, Scott McLachlan, Jonathan Engler, Dan Russell and Jessica Rose (2021), “</span><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">Official mortality data for England suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination</span></a><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination" target="_blank">”</a>, </span><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"> (this is a significantly revised version of </span><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483</a><span style="text-decoration: underline;">)</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">Full url: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination </span> <br /></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-75422824456391103252022-01-03T08:38:00.013-08:002022-01-03T12:03:15.316-08:00No fancy statistics: a simple plot of vaccination rate against Covid death rate for all countries in the world<p>Using the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations" target="_blank">"Our Word in Data" website</a> we have extracted the latest snapshot for each country of <i>total vaccinations per hundred people</i> and <i>total 'covid deaths' per million</i>. The full data by country - in order of vaccinations - is listed at the bottom of this page (all numbers rounded to 0 decimal places).<br /></p><p>We use inverted commas for 'covid deaths' because (as readers of this blog will know) this is a very vague metric and we have no confidence that it is accurate or consistently collected for any country in the world. If the data were accurate, and if the vaccines worked as claimed, then what we should see when we plot the vaccinations against deaths is something like this: <br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijPC5XPxLLTVrn9Yxj2KpjwikjdSIMa7vNzZMxEZNeN6-82Hio4AzLHENxPbQkScIdbZZFRWmsStAJPbda4NsYeDk67PCMRA_iXjtm__-fqcrc3h4UW4PWnBXbW9KsWgv1rmnZrJMB0C2eEgscW6vllip520MoGMz_CYw3nfJ4pUxGs6RwY-p2--VA8g=s1653" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="993" data-original-width="1653" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijPC5XPxLLTVrn9Yxj2KpjwikjdSIMa7vNzZMxEZNeN6-82Hio4AzLHENxPbQkScIdbZZFRWmsStAJPbda4NsYeDk67PCMRA_iXjtm__-fqcrc3h4UW4PWnBXbW9KsWgv1rmnZrJMB0C2eEgscW6vllip520MoGMz_CYw3nfJ4pUxGs6RwY-p2--VA8g=w400-h240" width="400" /></a></div><br /> i.e. the more vaccinations in a country the fewer deaths.<br /><p></p><p>Obviously there are multiple confounding factors (other than inconsistent reporting) that can impact on the relationship (timing when covid first hit, average population age, population density, geographial location, access to healthcare, etc) not to mention all the missing factors previously discussed**. Ideally the deaths should also be restricted to post-vaccination roll out (difficult to do that using the Our World in Data spreadsheet). But it is still surprising that the following is the actual plot:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj5ErFX9YGU2Z6v5AqRO3GFQ7SToYRBydG1gFilUauTydaV8VT42S1zOebZlo_vZa1LD-D1fi5ieVZKGCaYQ5gIzC83xBp45SZa4Dk-B2GDJxTR_XQcWob1vJHmGecAC6-kKYwbOotZPBDfgViCoRXvD-OW2EbYGy6i21nxwTafnAWjXOMwLNiWdd__aw=s3082" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1634" data-original-width="3082" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj5ErFX9YGU2Z6v5AqRO3GFQ7SToYRBydG1gFilUauTydaV8VT42S1zOebZlo_vZa1LD-D1fi5ieVZKGCaYQ5gIzC83xBp45SZa4Dk-B2GDJxTR_XQcWob1vJHmGecAC6-kKYwbOotZPBDfgViCoRXvD-OW2EbYGy6i21nxwTafnAWjXOMwLNiWdd__aw=w640-h340" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>All pretty random*** but note the high number of low vaccination, low covid death countries (mainly in Africa) as shown in this map:<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgr0IHlndgD31df6S-6lWwbiZ-DW8b98CV2ZXrHwuoHXBV-XJy0mHTabRjYcln1OD-1riDG_659heAarbuneSwNd2h6RIWbYGGasSsMZpwjIYweUWby8DZ4Fk8bD2kwfx1VSQ16Z-2yc5anCspDfHMMHcD4c7FdCtfu1xwVJTenFxUOsmYe4Mt-7dWUNQ=s1740" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1076" data-original-width="1740" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgr0IHlndgD31df6S-6lWwbiZ-DW8b98CV2ZXrHwuoHXBV-XJy0mHTabRjYcln1OD-1riDG_659heAarbuneSwNd2h6RIWbYGGasSsMZpwjIYweUWby8DZ4Fk8bD2kwfx1VSQ16Z-2yc5anCspDfHMMHcD4c7FdCtfu1xwVJTenFxUOsmYe4Mt-7dWUNQ=w640-h396" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>But what it really shows more than anything is how poor all the 'official' covid data are (look at the laughable China data) and, because of the universally poor data, how little evidence there is of either the severity of Covid or the effectiveness of any covid interventions.</p><p>**As we have been saying since March 2020 all of the 'official' Covid data are essentially useless because they do not provide us with the necessary information to take account of all of the causal explanations for what is observed:<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDFq7j6ltT9hLnUU9UpSD8R1saDvlESw-raa0AKUT4dzPrQ5rKtxfCeiEcavWH6CaNDgBNhCE8XfUA39jV6g2IDwhSy-lnS3Q5XWQjBzBnX6xq6CogbbeTNv2qXQfBgJNRvPpDbn5F6gVKq5kwKLQPagUL2AumCSei_MlO-PpeHqaKxYCimw39nxuWmA=s1429" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1124" data-original-width="1429" height="504" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDFq7j6ltT9hLnUU9UpSD8R1saDvlESw-raa0AKUT4dzPrQ5rKtxfCeiEcavWH6CaNDgBNhCE8XfUA39jV6g2IDwhSy-lnS3Q5XWQjBzBnX6xq6CogbbeTNv2qXQfBgJNRvPpDbn5F6gVKq5kwKLQPagUL2AumCSei_MlO-PpeHqaKxYCimw39nxuWmA=w640-h504" width="640" /></a></p><p></p><p> </p><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 404px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 5655; mso-width-source: userset; width: 122pt;" width="162"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3746; mso-width-source: userset; width: 81pt;" width="107"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 4701; mso-width-source: userset; width: 101pt;" width="135"></col>
</colgroup><tbody><tr height="58" style="height: 43.5pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="58" style="height: 43.5pt; text-align: center; width: 122pt;" width="162"><b>Country</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 81pt;" width="107"><b>total vaccinations per hundred</b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center; width: 101pt;" width="135"><b>total deaths per million</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Gibraltar</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">322</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2968</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Cuba</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">268</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">735</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Chile</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">230</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2035</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">United Arab Emirates</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">224</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">216</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Iceland</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">209</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">108</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Denmark</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">209</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">560</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Isle of Man</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">208</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">784</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Malta</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">208</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">922</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">South Korea</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">202</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">111</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Uruguay</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">200</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1771</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">China</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">197</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Cayman Islands</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">196</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">165</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Faeroe Islands</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">196</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">285</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">United Kingdom</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">195</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2181</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Ireland</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">194</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1186</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Portugal</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">191</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1864</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Belgium</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">186</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2434</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Seychelles</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">185</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1324</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Bahrain</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">185</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">797</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Spain</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">184</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1909</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Italy</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">184</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2278</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">France</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">183</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1830</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Austria</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">182</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1520</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Bermuda</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">182</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1707</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Canada</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">181</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">798</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Israel</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">180</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">887</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Cambodia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">180</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">178</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Brunei</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">179</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">222</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Germany</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">178</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1336</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Norway</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">178</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">239</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Qatar</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">178</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">211</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Malaysia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">176</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">961</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Singapore</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">175</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">149</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Finland</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">175</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">282</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Sweden</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">173</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1507</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Cyprus</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">172</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">698</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Argentina</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">168</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2569</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Greece</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">167</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2005</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Australia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">165</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">88</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Luxembourg</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">165</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1429</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Liechtenstein</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">165</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1804</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Mongolia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">161</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">619</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Kuwait</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">160</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">570</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Mauritius</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">160</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">188</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">New Zealand</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">160</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">10</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">San Marino</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">159</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2793</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Japan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">158</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">146</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Switzerland</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">158</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1397</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Sri Lanka</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">158</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">698</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Hungary</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">156</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3934</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Netherlands</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">155</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1193</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Brazil</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">155</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2894</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Turkey</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">155</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">968</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Lithuania</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">154</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2752</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">United States</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">153</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2476</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Aruba</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">153</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1689</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Ecuador</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">153</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1881</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Vietnam</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">151</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">322</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Costa Rica</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">151</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1429</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Andorra</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">150</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1719</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Bhutan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">148</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Peru</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">148</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">6071</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Thailand</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">147</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">309</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">El Salvador</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">147</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">585</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Taiwan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">146</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">36</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Maldives</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">145</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">482</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Saudi Arabia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">144</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">251</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Czechia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">144</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3374</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Turks and Caicos Islands</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">144</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">586</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Fiji</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">140</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">772</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Slovenia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">140</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2693</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Greenland</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">138</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">18</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Iran</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">137</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1545</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Latvia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">137</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2443</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Morocco</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">135</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">397</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Panama</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">135</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1696</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Anguilla</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">134</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">264</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Curacao</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">132</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1147</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Hong Kong</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">132</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">28</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Dominican Republic</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">129</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">388</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Monaco</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">126</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">835</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Colombia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">126</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2533</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Poland</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">124</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2581</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">New Caledonia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">123</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">971</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Antigua and Barbuda</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">123</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1195</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Serbia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">120</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1840</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">British Virgin Islands</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">118</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1282</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">French Polynesia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">116</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2251</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Nicaragua</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">116</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">32</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Croatia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">116</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3072</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Oman</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">116</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">787</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Uzbekistan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">115</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">44</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Estonia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">115</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1458</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Mexico</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">114</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2299</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Slovakia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">112</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3046</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Azerbaijan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">111</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">818</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Wallis and Futuna</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">108</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">631</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Belize</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">105</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1462</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Venezuela</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">105</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">183</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">India</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">104</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">346</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Barbados</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">104</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">904</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Saint Kitts and Nevis</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">102</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">523</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Cape Verde</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">102</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">625</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Tunisia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">102</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2141</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Indonesia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">101</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">521</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Montenegro</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">101</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3844</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Russia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">101</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2080</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Trinidad and Tobago</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">100</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2054</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Rwanda</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">99</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">102</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Philippines</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">98</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">463</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Guyana</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">97</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1318</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Honduras</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">95</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1037</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Paraguay</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">95</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2301</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Kosovo</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">94</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1678</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Kazakhstan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">92</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">959</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Botswana</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">92</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1020</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Timor</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">89</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">91</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">North Macedonia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">84</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3752</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Romania</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">83</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3072</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Suriname</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">83</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2009</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Bolivia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">82</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1661</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Belarus</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">82</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">570</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Albania</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">81</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1116</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Jordan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">80</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1205</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Bangladesh</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">80</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">169</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Laos</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">79</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">19</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Bahamas</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">76</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1796</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Nepal</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">74</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">390</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Pakistan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">70</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">128</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Grenada</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">69</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1770</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Ukraine</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">65</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2354</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Lebanon</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">65</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1350</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Tajikistan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">64</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">13</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Palestine</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">63</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">932</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Georgia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">63</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3457</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Guatemala</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">62</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">883</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Sao Tome and Principe</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">62</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">255</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Montserrat</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">61</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">201</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Comoros</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">59</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">170</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Myanmar</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">58</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">350</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Saint Lucia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">57</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1600</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Saint Vincent and the Grenadines</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">55</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">728</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Armenia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">55</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2676</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Bulgaria</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">54</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">4492</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Egypt</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">51</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">207</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Vanuatu</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">49</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Zimbabwe</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">48</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">332</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Bosnia and Herzegovina</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">48</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3590</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">South Africa</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">46</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1515</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Mozambique</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">46</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">62</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Moldova</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">44</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2556</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Jamaica</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">41</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">833</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Libya</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">39</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">819</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Iraq</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">34</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">586</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14pt;">Angola</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">34</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">52</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Eswatini</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">34</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1102</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Kyrgyzstan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">34</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">423</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Lesotho</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">32</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">308</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Equatorial Guinea</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">31</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">121</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Namibia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">29</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">1398</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Algeria</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">28</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">139</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Togo</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">28</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">29</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Gabon</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">25</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">125</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Ghana</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">24</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">40</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Congo</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">23</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">63</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Guinea</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">21</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">29</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Uganda</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">21</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">69</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Guinea-Bissau</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">21</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">74</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Djibouti</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">20</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">189</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Kenya</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">18</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">98</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Cote d'Ivoire</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">18</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">26</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Liberia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">17</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">55</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Central African Republic</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">16</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">21</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Benin</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">14</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">13</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Senegal</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">13</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">110</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Afghanistan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">13</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">183</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Sudan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">12</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">72</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Sierra Leone</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">11</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">15</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Gambia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">11</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">138</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Syria</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">10</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">156</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Ethiopia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">9</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">59</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Somalia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">9</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">81</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Zambia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">9</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">197</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Malawi</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">9</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">120</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Nigeria</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">7</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">14</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Papua New Guinea</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">6</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">65</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Mali</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">5</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">32</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Burkina Faso</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">5</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">15</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Tanzania</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">4</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">12</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Niger</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">4</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">10</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Cameroon</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">4</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">67</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Madagascar</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">34</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">Yemen</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">64</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">South Sudan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">12</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Chad</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">11</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Haiti</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">66</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Burundi</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">0</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Mozambique</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">0</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">22</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p> </p><p>***For those who place value in correlation coefficients for such relationships (we don't) there is a significant positive correlation of 0.31 between number of vaccines and number of deaths<br /></p><p> </p>
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<p></p>
<p></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-67727789229456238442021-12-29T05:52:00.003-08:002021-12-30T06:14:29.059-08:00Covid-19: Definitions matter - and these are REAL<p></p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiXuOW9R0m4PFqlFNZeF_qIALZls76lE5VsH_FFsF2c0PCBaM6JMCbUURm_p3jIqS_wYobJhuDqQZdDRdyo4hCclWtX4_lCsc7z2dzti9BXwtCFi-wOqs-7EGl4BcX77cricPw5UYr9tIvrSPxCYaChixEzmmG8S_iq5LwP3Gz9Q-vKQ4sY3oxJd8mRJQ=s1958" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1795" data-original-width="1958" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiXuOW9R0m4PFqlFNZeF_qIALZls76lE5VsH_FFsF2c0PCBaM6JMCbUURm_p3jIqS_wYobJhuDqQZdDRdyo4hCclWtX4_lCsc7z2dzti9BXwtCFi-wOqs-7EGl4BcX77cricPw5UYr9tIvrSPxCYaChixEzmmG8S_iq5LwP3Gz9Q-vKQ4sY3oxJd8mRJQ=w400-h366" width="400" /></a></div><br />After posting the above on twitter there were some of the usual useful idiots saying it was all false without offering any evidence. Well, here are screenshots from the UK Government Covid dashboard website from today on definitions of <a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases" target="_blank">cases</a> and <a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths" target="_blank">deaths</a>:<p></p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQP7Slvr8PlEAWUkryVA8AGN7NtEpnFn_a2cBeov91tPyBPEBmf-LhWIJFQf-dAB1E7aZcaFjunfcRLdq3kSNGSum-tOP9SHOphWljqmwhArqXtV4uKmRTm8Amu148FGF4ahAyhuFDmNZPMkUrpdYUfe8ftNwbbrq9T3kkdL59rbGlD6ziwJ2D5Ma0Sw=s2204" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2038" data-original-width="2204" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQP7Slvr8PlEAWUkryVA8AGN7NtEpnFn_a2cBeov91tPyBPEBmf-LhWIJFQf-dAB1E7aZcaFjunfcRLdq3kSNGSum-tOP9SHOphWljqmwhArqXtV4uKmRTm8Amu148FGF4ahAyhuFDmNZPMkUrpdYUfe8ftNwbbrq9T3kkdL59rbGlD6ziwJ2D5Ma0Sw=w400-h370" width="400" /></a></div><p>It is also important to note that having a positive PCS test within 28 days of deaths is not the ONLY way to be counted as a Covid death. In fact the dashboard also has this plot, which is the one whose numbers are generally quoted:<br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgGafKRdWJ3wgMsTUNep_tv1kJ4O60dZhGpBn9Z-KNgUw4SZC0bGep5u_8PwcRbYdpmy7ZIzkSEhotZ56xiqe20U_gmGnaWFDysNWDu2_IajzRlelktpz9OPlWXuJ0Sn4BZJ6clFL1sYwOeRzcg2kEGloeImOknCAoQ0KQivq7zqLzHELFdN0o9DjY42g=s838" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="284" data-original-width="838" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgGafKRdWJ3wgMsTUNep_tv1kJ4O60dZhGpBn9Z-KNgUw4SZC0bGep5u_8PwcRbYdpmy7ZIzkSEhotZ56xiqe20U_gmGnaWFDysNWDu2_IajzRlelktpz9OPlWXuJ0Sn4BZJ6clFL1sYwOeRzcg2kEGloeImOknCAoQ0KQivq7zqLzHELFdN0o9DjY42g=w400-h135" width="400" /></a></div><p>If proper analyses of cause of death were undertaken then clearly this number should be much lower than the number who died within 28 days of a positive test. Unfortunately the numbers are consistently HIGHER - as of today the cumulative total of deaths within 28 days of a positive test is <a aria-label="Open dialogue for additional information" class="sc-Galmp dCcWeE" data-for="value-item-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test-total-cumdeaths28daysbypublishdate-1_tooltip" data-tip="Total number of deaths within 28 days of first positive test, reported up to Wednesday, 29 December 2021" id="value-item-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test-total-cumdeaths28daysbypublishdate-1_modal" role="button" tabindex="0">148,089 whereas the cumulative total with Covid-19 on the death certificate is </a><a aria-label="Open dialogue for additional information" class="sc-Galmp dCcWeE" data-for="value-item-deaths_with_covid-19_on_the_death_certificate-total-cumweeklynsodeathsbyregdate-1_tooltip" data-tip="Total number of deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned as a cause on the death certificate, registered up to Friday, 10 December 2021" id="value-item-deaths_with_covid-19_on_the_death_certificate-total-cumweeklynsodeathsbyregdate-1_modal" role="button" tabindex="0">171,801. This means that in addition to all of those classified as a Covid-19 death by virtue of a positive test within 28 days, another 23,000 deaths have been added. We suspect that many are like that of this twitter responder:</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiyZbiwKfnxlOthzYB24H9lnlGFdN2ZXwdiSt85XLHe7CweR2ImycO1ubgfEULcFMy2kAyo5aED9CdlDGgPkwIdTI6fIAdHhuKRBRbhTATk_lMm_Pn_LNkJZmpRqX-KXTui-PezvkUdhaP89Ci0fdOXof38P6C6f1D2F1o5iDBMtO7Uot1bwsS8hwm2ag=s713" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="138" data-original-width="713" height="78" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiyZbiwKfnxlOthzYB24H9lnlGFdN2ZXwdiSt85XLHe7CweR2ImycO1ubgfEULcFMy2kAyo5aED9CdlDGgPkwIdTI6fIAdHhuKRBRbhTATk_lMm_Pn_LNkJZmpRqX-KXTui-PezvkUdhaP89Ci0fdOXof38P6C6f1D2F1o5iDBMtO7Uot1bwsS8hwm2ag=w400-h78" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><p>And (as the dashboard website has recently removed the definition of a Covid hospitalisation) here is the definition in the <a href="https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/" target="_blank">NHS England Report</a><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgvAHkp-1KABh3nnW_Mm_dUFrOjGy7NlryQiRUWTXap1x_zwq-EpX-SbAH1karxpFYYzFfj0yUzSPIqHwsAk5nU1crwMgnjhkgOwkBpS3GpnusHGRAUydOZuNSw2TRt-drWKxfWgMed-uNKn4unDq301UHSJWbNUbz1G1AA3Hd8GbuYNfVg_8rKC7JMdw=s3807" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2099" data-original-width="3807" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgvAHkp-1KABh3nnW_Mm_dUFrOjGy7NlryQiRUWTXap1x_zwq-EpX-SbAH1karxpFYYzFfj0yUzSPIqHwsAk5nU1crwMgnjhkgOwkBpS3GpnusHGRAUydOZuNSw2TRt-drWKxfWgMed-uNKn4unDq301UHSJWbNUbz1G1AA3Hd8GbuYNfVg_8rKC7JMdw=w640-h352" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>For definition of a vaccinated and unvaccinated person see this <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e5.htm" target="_blank">CDC report </a>(all the various studies of vaccine efficacy and safety from around the world that we have previously reported on use these definitions):</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEji0E8dzqEE1azuF-GZh0-twMwoZ_Hmzy8uEv5PA9JYhw11Jhht2U_PhFiJFKg-FEbdNB40XWDbBvl5DjOoXYPiDi7aSs5W26V-UEC-NeAZY4UtNWzTsDc2ne2ZzZLTenLat0N1newHw-h2J3fgI1Fh6u7s-ZT_aEU-PElMgt3OMZEIXJYTR5GxE8_hlQ=s3962" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1451" data-original-width="3962" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEji0E8dzqEE1azuF-GZh0-twMwoZ_Hmzy8uEv5PA9JYhw11Jhht2U_PhFiJFKg-FEbdNB40XWDbBvl5DjOoXYPiDi7aSs5W26V-UEC-NeAZY4UtNWzTsDc2ne2ZzZLTenLat0N1newHw-h2J3fgI1Fh6u7s-ZT_aEU-PElMgt3OMZEIXJYTR5GxE8_hlQ=w640-h234" width="640" /></a></div><p>This CDC report also has the US definitions of cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The only difference to the UK definitions is that anybody dying <span style="font-size: small;"><b>within 60 days</b> </span>of a positive PCR test is classified as a Covid death: <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1hYfTgN1kyxjhs8vIUcm88C97bIPjyIi9dNolVlixIknXk7Ftjuni4CQQIj0Ev3vZXQkgc1YtE_eVruVmD4mtFvGlCSK_17gla8RDfyWvfo26kCCRt1J2W0dtQe1N3hKu0Fy0jfUhKXAiV8c2yN13MomUcbLAK8WGA6nSo64ulwLNC89ffSgPGVGgdA=s3528" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="464" data-original-width="3528" height="84" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1hYfTgN1kyxjhs8vIUcm88C97bIPjyIi9dNolVlixIknXk7Ftjuni4CQQIj0Ev3vZXQkgc1YtE_eVruVmD4mtFvGlCSK_17gla8RDfyWvfo26kCCRt1J2W0dtQe1N3hKu0Fy0jfUhKXAiV8c2yN13MomUcbLAK8WGA6nSo64ulwLNC89ffSgPGVGgdA=w640-h84" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><br /><p><br /></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-84699290383438112732021-12-29T01:24:00.005-08:002021-12-29T06:05:31.532-08:0014 month-old evidence submitted to UK Parliament on Covid-19 data transparency and accountability<p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Just discovered the <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/13847/default/" target="_blank">statement below on the UK Government website</a>
(I’d totally forgotten about it). It’s the evidence we provided 14
months ago concerning data transparency and accountability during the
COVID-19 crisis. A pdf version is <a href="https://tinyurl.com/2p8pvtpy " target="_blank">here</a>. </span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Shame the Government totally ignored the evidence.</span> <br /></p><p></p><p><br /></p><p>
</p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 20.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">A
Response to the Call for Evidence <br />
Regarding COVID-19 Data <br />
Transparency and Accountability</span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> </span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">To:
UK Parliament, Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee,
Commons Select Committee</span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> </span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">1
November 2020</span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> </span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Professor
Norman Fenton</span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Director of Risk Information Management Research Group</span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><a href="mailto:n.fenton@qmul.ac.uk"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">n.fenton@qmul.ac.uk</span></a><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> </span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Professor
Martin Neil</span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Professor in Computer Science and Statistics</span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> <br /></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Dr
Scott McLachlan</span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Postdoctoral Researcher
in Health Informatics (Queen Mary)</span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Fellow in Law
(Birmingham Law School)</span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><!--[if !mso]>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
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</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">To:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>UK
Parliament </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Public
Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Commons Select
Committee</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Honourable Members;</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Re:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Data
Transparency and Accountability: COVID-19.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Apropos the <i>call for evidence</i>
concerning data transparency and accountability during the COVID-19 crisis. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">We respond;</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">We are a group of senior researchers
in risk assessment, probability, statistics, and public health technologies
based at Queen Mary University of London. Since March 2020, we have produced 23
articles/reports<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a> (of
which 5 have been published in peer reviewed journals) analysing the publicly
available COVID-19 statistics and producing risk assessments and models. </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><a name="_Hlk55036424"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">We believe that the statistics
provided to and by the Government during the COVID-19 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>crisis have been inadequate and have been too
easily used by influencers and decision-makers to fit particular narratives
that have exaggerated the scale of the crisis. </span></a></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk55036424;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Statistics and data are observed
phenomena arising from unobserved processes and their interactions (including
causal explanations) as shown in </span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk55036424;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Figure 1</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk55036424;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">. The number of observed COVID-19 ‘cases’ clearly depends
on how a ‘case’ is defined and the population infection rate, but it is also influenced
by many (normally unreported) causal factors such as how many tests are being
performed, who is being tested and why, and the accuracy of the testing. Similarly,
while the number of observed COVID-19 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>‘deaths’ clearly depends on how a COVID-19 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>death is defined and reported, it is also influenced
by the population demographics, quality of healthcare etc. Hence, contrary to
popular conception, data do not ‘speak for themselves’. </span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk55036424;"></span>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">For example, in March and April (as
we pointed out in<a href="#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span></span></span></a><sup>,<a href="#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span></span></span></a>,<a href="#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span></span></span></a></sup>),
by focusing only on simple counts of ‘cases’, ‘hospitalisations’ and ‘deaths’,
the public was misled into believing that the virus was more deadly than it
really was. At that stage testing was essentially limited to those who were
either already hospitalized with severe symptoms or were frontline healthcare
workers. The reported high death (and hospitalisation) rates of those infected
(calculated by simply dividing the number of deaths by the number of ‘cases’)
were in part explained by the limited testing regime that was essentially only
‘finding’ the most severe ‘cases’.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.5pt; margin-right: 4.75pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><a name="_Hlk55043404"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Similarly, the scale of the ‘second
wave’ has been continually exaggerated by focusing on increased ‘cases’ without
considering the simple causal explanation of massively increased testing. When
this is done – as shown in the plots of </span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk55043404;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Figure <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">2</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk55043404;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> –the trends for cases, hospitalizations and deaths
look far less worrying than those presented at </span></span><a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk55043404;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk</span></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk55043404;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> using exactly the same data.</span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk55043404;"></span>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.5pt; margin-right: 4.75pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">At the root of the data problem
there has been a fundamental misunderstanding about the meaning of terms ‘COVID-19
cases’ and ‘COVID-19 deaths’, and what can be interpreted from statistics that
use these terms.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even small changes in
how these are defined and classified (as has happened several times since
March) lead to very different trends and conclusions.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.5pt; margin-right: 4.75pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">7.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The definition of a COVID-19 ‘case’
is especially concerning. In epidemiology, a case definition includes criteria
for <b><i>person</i></b> (e.g. gender, race, age, or exclusion criteria), <b><i>place</i></b>
(such as that associated with the outbreak of a disease), <b><i>time</i></b> (when
illness started) and <b><i>clinical features</i></b>. Clinical features are
initially normally simple and objective such as ‘sudden onset of fever and
cough’ but should later be characterised by confirmed presence of specific
laboratory findings, such as ‘ground-glass opacity on Chest CT and positive
culture for SARS-CoV-2’. <b>During this crisis, a positive PCR test has
improperly become the surrogate replacing all four aspects of case definition</b>.
A PCR test may be positive: (i) before clinical features arise; (ii) long after
clinical features have abated; or even (iii) when a person has simply come into
contact with the disease but without them ever becoming infected. Some argue
that reporting cycle threshold (Ct) values may help clinical decision-makers
identify at which of these three stages an asymptomatic person may present;
however, given that almost all so-called asymptomatic cases never develop
active disease, if we leave aside issues with false positives (which increase
for high Ct values), we submit that many ‘cases’ must be type (iii) and
therefore did not meet the normal epidemiological standard to be classified or
counted as <i>a case</i>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.5pt; margin-right: 4.75pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">8.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Confusion about the definition of a
COVID-19 ‘death’ also persist. It is now clear that Government-reported deaths include
not just those who died as a direct result of the disease, but also all of
those who have died ‘with it’, thus leading to inflation of the fatality
figures. Several studies have also suggested that reported deaths from other
pneumonias, influenzas and even lung cancer have dropped well below normal
annual levels since March. As such there are questions surrounding whether
people who died of these similar conditions were incorrectly classified as COVID-19
deaths.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.5pt; margin-right: 4.75pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">9.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">With the massive increase in
testing since August, uncertainty about the testing accuracy - <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>especially the false positive rate of PCR
tests<a href="#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span></span></span></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-
means that almost nothing meaningful can be concluded about the increasing
cases or fatality rate – see </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Figure <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">3</span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The vast majority tested have no symptoms at
all, so in the absence of data provided about the proportion of asymptomatic
people who were tested and tested positive (as well as the other missing
information shown in </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Figure <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">3</span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">), we do not know what
proportion of new ‘cases’ and reported ‘deaths’ are people infected with COVID-19
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>at all. A false positive rate of even
just 1% would, together with the massively increased testing, provide a causal
explanation for the increase in cases even if the virus has largely subsided<a href="#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span></span></span></a>.
But, yet again, the narrative presented – and the one on which lockdown
decisions are based – is that of a massive ‘second wave’. </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.5pt; margin-right: 4.75pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">10.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Closed
loop thinking means that, once a particular narrative is ‘believed’,
alternative explanations for the observed data are never entertained. Indeed,
the lack of data, unscientific closed-shop models, fundamental misunderstandings
by decision-makers, manipulation of underlying reporting processes,
contradictory goals or the potential for malign intent are all feasible
explanations for the observed data and chaotic analysis. The lack of data
transparency gives credence to these explanations and leads to a lack of trust
in government statistics and decisions made using those statistics.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.5pt; margin-right: 4.75pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">11.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">There
are many examples of how the crude data, and failure to consider alternative
causal explanations, has been used for inappropriate decision-making and even
scare-mongering. These include:</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 72.0pt; margin-right: 26.05pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">i.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Using ‘100 new cases per 100,000 people’
as a threshold beyond which a local borough is required to move to lockdown.
With this metric the threshold can be avoided or reached simply by
decreasing/increasing the number of tests carried out. </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 72.0pt; margin-right: 26.05pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">ii.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">As explained above (and in </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Figure <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">2</span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">) the headline
figures and graphs – as presented for example, at </span><a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> do not factor in
the increase in testing. For example, the recent ‘exponential’ increase in
number of cases – which has driven the ‘second wave narrative’ does not look at
all serious when we plot it as number of cases per 1000 tests. The same is true
of hospital admissions and deaths; for example,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>contrary to the frightening ‘absolute’ increase in hospital cases since
September, it turns out that the number of hospital admissions per 1000 cases
has remained stable – and may even be decreasing when we factor in the false
positives and those admitted for non-COVID reasons who happen to get a positive
COVID test after admission. </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 72.0pt; margin-right: 26.05pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">iii.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The ONS report<a href="#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span></span></span></a>
on COVID-19 deaths by ethnicity is one of many that have produced misleading
conclusions without even revealing all relevant data. This particular report exaggerated<a href="#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span></span></span></a>
the increased risk to people from the BAME community by using ‘relative risk’
to summarise the findings, rather than ‘absolute risk’ as continually <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>recommended for communicating risk to the
public, by Royal Statistical Society Chairman (and member of SAGE) Professor
Sir David Spiegelhalter<a href="#_ftn9" name="_ftnref9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span></span></span></a>.
Moreover, we noted<a href="#_ftn10" name="_ftnref10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span></span></span></a><sup>,</sup>
that the claims were almost certainly further exaggerated as they were likely
based on out of date demographic information (the ONS failed to respond to our
request to identify what data were used). Hence the ONS report – which was
widely quoted in the media – was likely to create an unjustified level of fear
and anxiety among the BAME community. Failure to identify causal explanations
for data bias has also led to multiple well-publicised studies with exaggerated<a href="#_ftn11" name="_ftnref11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span></span></span></a><sup>,<a href="#_ftn12" name="_ftnref12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span></span></span></a></sup>
- or even flawed<a href="#_ftn13" name="_ftnref13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span></span></span></a> -<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>claims that certain communities, or people
with certain attributes or habits, are at much higher risk of COVID-19. </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 72.0pt; margin-right: 26.05pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">iv.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In early October news broke of under-reporting
of almost 16,000 positive PCR tests and that, as a result, as many as 48,000
people may not have been informed of their exposure due to close contact with
these undisclosed ‘cases’<a href="#_ftn14" name="_ftnref14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></span></span></span></a>.
PHE blamed Microsoft’s Excel software<a href="#_ftn15" name="_ftnref15" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn15;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span></span></span></a>,
but this disingenuous admonition did more to highlight PHE’s: (a) reliance on
almost 25yr old technology; (b) ignorance of and failure to maintain pace with
technology; and (c) lack of any reliable approach to checking and validating data
they collect and report. Data security experts describe this as one in a long string
of data and information security failings by PHE and the Government and have
used it to support eschewing use of the proposed NHSx track and trace apps<a href="#_ftn16" name="_ftnref16" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn16;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span></span></span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 72.0pt; margin-right: 26.05pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">v.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Removal or sanitising of flu
incidence/death data from 1999 and all previous years from the ONS website
making comparisons almost impossible and giving the impression that the ‘past
is being rewritten or expunged’.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 72.0pt; margin-right: 26.05pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">vi.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Constant changing of scales and
metrics used in data reporting. For example, deaths were recorded as COVID-19 deaths
if they occurred within 28 days of a positive test and this has recently been
changed to 60 days if COVID-19 appears on the death certificate. This change
was done in reaction to a recommendation that the period should be reduced to
21 days. The change was made with no accompanying<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>explanation of why it was increased rather
than decreased<a href="#_ftn17" name="_ftnref17" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn17;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[17]</span></span></span></span></a>. </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.5pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">12.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Ultimately
the only way to achieve accurate estimates of the critical population infection
rate at any given time is to provide the missing – but easy to obtain data
shown in </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Figure 4</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.5pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -17.85pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">13.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Decisions
about lockdown require data to support the evidence shown in<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Figure 5</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">. If these data
have been considered in Government decisions, they have certainly not been made
public.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -2.3pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -2.3pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In summary, and supported by the arguments
above our responses to the eight issues identified in the public call are: </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">14.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In
response to Issue 1:<i> Did the Government have good enough data to make
decisions in response to Coronavirus, and how quickly were the Government able
to gather new data?</i> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Data provided by
several departments including PHE, NHS and ONS for Government decision-making
was observed to be ever-changing, unreliable, and of such poor quality and so inappropriately
framed as to be insufficient to support the public health, policy and
legislative decisions that resulted.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">15.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In
response to Issue 2:<i> Was data for decision-making sufficiently joined up
across departments? </i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Where multiple
actors are responsible for collecting and reporting data that will be
aggregated and used to direct public policy: definitions, thresholds and
processes must observe a consistent standard. The central aggregator, in this
case the ONS, should have been responsible for both dictating and enforcing that
standard. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">As evidenced by
anomalies and misrepresentations identified above, the efforts of PHE, NHS and
ONS were not sufficiently joined up, fell short of due standards, and severely
undermined Government decision-making, independent scrutiny, and ultimately public
confidence.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">16.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In
response to Issue 3:<i> Was relevant data disseminated to key decision-makers
in: Central and Local Government; other public services (like schools);
businesses; and interested members of the public?</i> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">To be relevant,
data must be capable of informing the decision-making process. Relevant data is
that which is <i>accurate</i>, <i>timely</i>, <i>indisputable</i>, <i>optimised</i>
and <i>fit to inform the known purposes for which it may be used</i>. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Given that
Government was aware most members of the public consume only limited ‘views’ of
such data as are presented in the media, its presentation, accuracy and fitness
for purpose should have received greater consideration. While data was made
available via the ONS website, for the reasons discussed above the relevance of
this data has remained questionable.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">17.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In
response to <i>Issue 4: Were key decisions (such as ‘lockdowns’) underpinned by
good data and was data-led decision-making timely, clear and transparently
presented to the public?</i> </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Government
decisions impacting the liberty and freedoms of individuals appear to have been
made haphazardly<a name="_Hlk55218923">. </a>While each came supported by
justifications, it was claimed, that they were ‘led by the science’, more often
it could be argued this was not the case.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Decision making
has been presented as being the result of “the science” with the goal of
delivering ‘consensus’. However, science does not operate as a consensus making
mechanism and it is not monolithic. The current crisis has demonstrated that
groups like SAGE and the Joint Biosecurity Centre are not following scientific
norms of behaviour. Analysis and policy formulation need more stringent oversight
in a way that invites and delivers scientific debate from both within and also
outside the group. </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">18.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In
response to <i>Issue 5: Was data shared across the devolved administrations and
local authorities to enable mutually beneficial decision-making?</i> </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">If this were the
case it has not been made clear to the public, and in any case, it is likely
that the shared data suffered from all of the limitations we have highlighted.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">19.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In
response to <i>Issue 6: Is the public able to comprehend the data published
during the pandemic. Is there sufficient understanding among journalists and
parliamentarians to enable them to present and interpret data accurately, and
ask informed questions of Government? </i></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">It is difficult to
ensure accurate comprehension in circumstances where, as discussed earlier,
relevantly framed data has not been provided. Continued reliance on journalists
to identify meaning from data has only resulted in sensational headlines that
amplified public ignorance and promulgated fear.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">What could have
been done to improve understanding and who could take responsibility for this? </span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The current crisis
has demonstrated Government must take additional steps to provide context and
meaning capable of supporting differing interpretations they wish the public
should draw from published data. The public should be trusted to understand
nuance and scientific disagreement about what the data might be telling them.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">20.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In
response to <i>Issue 7: Does the Government have a good enough understanding of
data security, and do the public have confidence in the government’s data
handling? </i></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The policies and
approaches of Government do not seem to have reflected prevailing opinions and
wishes of the public. This has never been more obvious than during development
and release of both versions of the NHSx Track and Trace smartphone app, and
when vision-based population proximity monitoring AI systems were deployed around
London suburbs, and once exposed in the media, hastily removed. It seems there
is little public confidence in the current approach to securing public and
personal data and indeed the potential for increased suspicion of the
government’s motives in this regard.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">21.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In
response to <i>Issue 8: How will the change in responsibility for Government
data impact future decision-making?</i> </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 2.0cm; margin-right: -2.3pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">It is not clear
what the change in responsibility is and the motivation for it. Any change in
responsibility might simply be akin to ‘rearranging the deckchairs on the
Titanic’.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 18.95pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 18.95pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 5.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 19.0pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">FIGURES</span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"> <br /></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEigVgEE-I3VwoPZK8uDFaFwXiVP0A7QJK8RSai56bUsIXZ2myJ9OmIc1KFvUG20kcVGy2RFGlfd7qCNf68vfhCabjF5ww7GHBfPcD8aUoXbZ-V1n5AU-eDrE2wM04SAXXS4g9yt-yvqL8j2zH0sEzMIa8F_3zI46SZISbtnlL8QZdafPso_mAjanGhy2A=s1002" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1002" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEigVgEE-I3VwoPZK8uDFaFwXiVP0A7QJK8RSai56bUsIXZ2myJ9OmIc1KFvUG20kcVGy2RFGlfd7qCNf68vfhCabjF5ww7GHBfPcD8aUoXbZ-V1n5AU-eDrE2wM04SAXXS4g9yt-yvqL8j2zH0sEzMIa8F_3zI46SZISbtnlL8QZdafPso_mAjanGhy2A=w640-h526" width="640" /></a></div><a name="_Ref54886126"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;">Figure </span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Ref54886126;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">1</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Ref54886126;"></span><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;"> Causal model explaining
observed data</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj2iLMRd_oTLem1mqTpzaN3d7LPuFkqQoFDii0KEuwgs4WqwuhKhVF-CQQk7Rn6A9NDuLlqIPe8KqnDjw-nBT6F6rETQUst-GrHysIg_QNXjk4Jg5AsH3N27saYTyyPcPFIkWdF93WASCAMqEiQOghFOoTQuzjN5JoFO8-LC0lUMPenyl6D3biJNYpOYg=s1324" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1324" data-original-width="780" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj2iLMRd_oTLem1mqTpzaN3d7LPuFkqQoFDii0KEuwgs4WqwuhKhVF-CQQk7Rn6A9NDuLlqIPe8KqnDjw-nBT6F6rETQUst-GrHysIg_QNXjk4Jg5AsH3N27saYTyyPcPFIkWdF93WASCAMqEiQOghFOoTQuzjN5JoFO8-LC0lUMPenyl6D3biJNYpOYg=w378-h640" width="378" /></a></div><br /><a name="_Ref55039371"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;">Figure </span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Ref55039371;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">2</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Ref55039371;"></span><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;"> Simple plots that take
account of number of tests and cases</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDs_YqZqEm43Un3cDaZdZ-nF94Bu0N4ueuC3m2x1O8kFsUHaumB-Sg7LtauLvoJwBYd-cNB2hr0bE6BheZNeDOvFgMNOfhnjmNpbGuLSKVw-WSlKF_-LZZH77Cj6J1OOdRDbTEFXjo1o2lR99AjTHNxWEcDoDS1Oy5LAVxKlqCXowd1sAQnZIynh-htA=s940" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="739" data-original-width="940" height="504" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDs_YqZqEm43Un3cDaZdZ-nF94Bu0N4ueuC3m2x1O8kFsUHaumB-Sg7LtauLvoJwBYd-cNB2hr0bE6BheZNeDOvFgMNOfhnjmNpbGuLSKVw-WSlKF_-LZZH77Cj6J1OOdRDbTEFXjo1o2lR99AjTHNxWEcDoDS1Oy5LAVxKlqCXowd1sAQnZIynh-htA=w640-h504" width="640" /></a></div><a name="_Ref54889782"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;">Figure </span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Ref54889782;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">3</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Ref54889782;"></span><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;"> Why the daily reported
data tell us almost nothing</span><p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="page-break-after: avoid; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"></span></p><p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiE787JJZYz0VUaTq7i2tI0zfrZbJozqOhQn_RU6IebGfD2rR-J0NCUv4fHkS19nO1iOLNHvcjRIXZm_jlCa7LoC66YDQy26ACQwjepdJaKqXJrKU10p5HtgtjnUTCh9FyADlbFno-3GTB0Fv2mVtTqhUfiZ9Vl9XHWJvXJv4HfVmCzF8hiMGlgAGyYJg=s940" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="734" data-original-width="940" height="500" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiE787JJZYz0VUaTq7i2tI0zfrZbJozqOhQn_RU6IebGfD2rR-J0NCUv4fHkS19nO1iOLNHvcjRIXZm_jlCa7LoC66YDQy26ACQwjepdJaKqXJrKU10p5HtgtjnUTCh9FyADlbFno-3GTB0Fv2mVtTqhUfiZ9Vl9XHWJvXJv4HfVmCzF8hiMGlgAGyYJg=w640-h500" width="640" /></a></div><a name="_Ref54900625"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;">Figure </span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Ref54900625;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">4</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Ref54900625;"></span><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;"> Missing data needed to
accurate estimation of population infection rate</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"> <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgLt2WlbXMx9hYGk6cOzL4QtttUf52vnShCnebgeKUGwSbmsGOFvEDjw-4KK0Spq09WIuC-BMUOuB_uYDHC5KiJNU8YeELCKPMKnOf0Pc9vGFTbiDNj2zqx-NyQ2_iezUK9Tpx5zwDF7JbIsnpXnIzgFSBqhiCUk9LyhEwBjEZhGejHxY591n383ngPxQ=s1379" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="746" data-original-width="1379" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgLt2WlbXMx9hYGk6cOzL4QtttUf52vnShCnebgeKUGwSbmsGOFvEDjw-4KK0Spq09WIuC-BMUOuB_uYDHC5KiJNU8YeELCKPMKnOf0Pc9vGFTbiDNj2zqx-NyQ2_iezUK9Tpx5zwDF7JbIsnpXnIzgFSBqhiCUk9LyhEwBjEZhGejHxY591n383ngPxQ=w640-h346" width="640" /></a></div><a name="_Ref54900805"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;">Figure </span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Ref54900805;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">5</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Ref54900805;"></span><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;"> The evidence we need to
demonstrate why lockdowns are needed</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">
https://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/all_publications.htm#Papers</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-AU; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">[2]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">
Fenton, N. E., Neil, M., Osman, M., & McLachlan, S. (2020). "COVID-19
infection and death rates: the need to incorporate causal explanations for the
data and avoid bias in testing". Journal of Risk Research, 1–4. </span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1756381"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1756381</span></a><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-AU; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">[3]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">
Fenton, N. E., Osman, M., Neil, M., & McLachlan, S. (2020). Coronavirus:
country comparisons are pointless unless we account for these biases in
testing. The Conversation,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>April 2, 2020<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-country-comparisons-are-pointless-unless-we-account-for-these-biases-in-testing-135464"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-country-comparisons-are-pointless-unless-we-account-for-these-biases-in-testing-135464</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">[4]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">
Fenton, N.E., Hitman, G. A., Neil, M., Osman, M., & McLachlan, S. (2020).
Causal explanations, error rates, and human judgment biases missing from the
COVID-19 narrative and statistics. PsyArXiv Preprints.
https://doi.org/10.31234/OSF.IO/P39A4</span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span></span></span></a> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Cohen,
A. N., Kessel, B., & Milgroom, M. G. (2020). Diagnosing COVID-19 infection:
the danger of over-reliance on positive test results. MedRxiv,
2020.04.26.20080911. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080911</span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span></span></span></a> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-impact-of-covid-false-positives.html</span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span></span></span></a> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Office
for National Statistics. (2020a). Coronavirus (Covid-19) related deaths by
ethnic group, England and Wales -2 March 2020 to 10 April 2020.</span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"> Fenton N. E, Neil
M, McLachlan S, Osman M (2020), "Misinterpreting statistical anomalies and
risk assessment when analysing Covid-19 deaths by ethnicity". DOI:
10.13140/RG.2.2.18957.5680</span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn9" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="#_ftnref9" name="_ftn9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span></span></span></a> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">https://www.regulation.org.uk/library/2017-Spiegelhalter-Risk_and_Uncertainty_Communication.pdf</span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn10" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="#_ftnref10" name="_ftn10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"> Fenton N. E, Neil
M, McLachlan S, Osman M (2020), "Misinterpreting statistical anomalies and
risk assessment when analysing Covid-19 deaths by ethnicity". DOI:
10.13140/RG.2.2.18957.5680</span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn11" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="#_ftnref11" name="_ftn11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"> Fenton N. E, Neil
M, McLachlan S, Osman M (2020), "Misinterpreting statistical anomalies and
risk assessment when analysing Covid-19 deaths by ethnicity". DOI:
10.13140/RG.2.2.18957.5680</span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn12" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="#_ftnref12" name="_ftn12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"> Fenton, N E.
(2020). A Note on UK Covid19 death rates by religion: which groups are most at
risk? </span><a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.07083"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;">http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.07083</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"></span></p>
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<div id="ftn13" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="#_ftnref13" name="_ftn13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"> Fenton, N E
(2020), "Why most studies into COVID19 risk factors may be producing
flawed conclusions-and how to fix the problem",
http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.08608</span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
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<div id="ftn14" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="#_ftnref14" name="_ftn14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span><a href="https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/05/excel_england_coronavirus_contact_error/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;">https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/05/excel_england_coronavirus_contact_error/</span></a><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-AU;"></span></p>
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<div id="ftn15" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="#_ftnref15" name="_ftn15" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn15;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54423988"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54423988</span></a><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-AU;"></span></p>
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<div id="ftn16" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="#_ftnref16" name="_ftn16" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn16;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span><a href="https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1344766/NHS-app-NHS-covid-19-contact-tracing-app-download-give-blood"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;">https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1344766/NHS-app-NHS-covid-19-contact-tracing-app-download-give-blood</span></a><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-AU;"></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn17" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="#_ftnref17" name="_ftn17" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn17;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[17]</span></span></span></span></a> <span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 8.0pt;">https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-uk-wide-methodology-agreed-to-record-covid-19-deaths</span></p>
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<![endif]--></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-37673554219293309892021-12-24T07:30:00.009-08:002022-02-03T02:40:46.970-08:00New ONS report on deaths by vaccination: serious anomalies and further obfuscation<p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><b>See <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2022/02/update-bmj-rejects-without-review-paper.html" target="_blank">this update</a> about this work. </b></i></span><br /></span></p><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">The <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31october2021" target="_blank">latest ONS report on deaths by vaccination status</a> has serious anomalies (as in their previous report which we analysed in <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356756711_Latest_statistics_on_England_mortality_data_suggest_systematic_mis-categorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination" target="_blank">this paper</a>). The most obvious one is that their analysis claims age standardized NON-COVID mortality rate is TWICE as high in the unvaccinated as the vaccinated: <br /></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"> </span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxLETZrQzvanXyBt0Qe43DmaAeRSj7HDFY1DqgZxSm3erVakHfgxAJbMU0gw9mnwlQPHwr7lCSJn1seyPk-uJbN7UQhF3jIEtJ4gFjONoKzy6CKRlcauPFHvFk71ouVB_gp8L6EOvF6i_rIfTEM8DM-N0g9IpLlJai8UzVgUovOjr8PwlaibpP1fJfcQ=s1220" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="395" data-original-width="1220" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxLETZrQzvanXyBt0Qe43DmaAeRSj7HDFY1DqgZxSm3erVakHfgxAJbMU0gw9mnwlQPHwr7lCSJn1seyPk-uJbN7UQhF3jIEtJ4gFjONoKzy6CKRlcauPFHvFk71ouVB_gp8L6EOvF6i_rIfTEM8DM-N0g9IpLlJai8UzVgUovOjr8PwlaibpP1fJfcQ=w640-h208" width="640" /></a></p><br /><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">This is not credible. </span>If it were really true then this would mean either </span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">a) healthier people got vaccinated and/or very sick people did not get vaccinated. But then this would mean that all ONS estimates of vaccine effectiveness are massively exaggerated due to the confounding effect of prior health status; or </span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">b) the COVID vaccines are full of magic fairy dust that cures non-Covid illness and increases your life expectancy</span></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">The report does indeed claim that a) is true (Page 5). But this contradicts both the NHS Guidelines (which are explicit in ensuring that the most at-risk and vulnerable get <b>priority </b>for vaccination) and the statement on Page 1 of the report</span> (as well as anecdotal evidence that even terminally ill patients got the vaccine early):<br /></span></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEinBj6KAm0BQaYGNwtA4NVvPPZB-eb34Z2Uq6DzOI9413XphVracEYBgo8-epjUYP33HyiUCHJIge-ODO9l4M67SU2xtwUvYcWsWmzRiP6Ie0vCHuSXzDpriUIviHujW4-v8nRt-DpiF4Sz2-W2UwmtIJT7e7l6SRs7-CSIWA2RjNoFtd2pR6QLB5DBWg=s1170" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="1170" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEinBj6KAm0BQaYGNwtA4NVvPPZB-eb34Z2Uq6DzOI9413XphVracEYBgo8-epjUYP33HyiUCHJIge-ODO9l4M67SU2xtwUvYcWsWmzRiP6Ie0vCHuSXzDpriUIviHujW4-v8nRt-DpiF4Sz2-W2UwmtIJT7e7l6SRs7-CSIWA2RjNoFtd2pR6QLB5DBWg=w640-h276" width="640" /></a></div><p> And this on Page 8 of the report:<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjU7nqNdazlwDTkd-81W3rjGT39MnCblX7q3ufDvWYPPIJJFWoCu_ofmPcnH0pSnmBpNx3lXX7-jfSI1FPLSdDJvkBtKVgugmDTPnITJraKYy3-RUZ_zcv79l3JdA3K2IuIlVC-h-TL7GRzrglkAc0gVbdTRKqwPPjNjM5NZfBd4FnU-46XmVnL3xPZ1w=s1130" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="148" data-original-width="1130" height="84" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjU7nqNdazlwDTkd-81W3rjGT39MnCblX7q3ufDvWYPPIJJFWoCu_ofmPcnH0pSnmBpNx3lXX7-jfSI1FPLSdDJvkBtKVgugmDTPnITJraKYy3-RUZ_zcv79l3JdA3K2IuIlVC-h-TL7GRzrglkAc0gVbdTRKqwPPjNjM5NZfBd4FnU-46XmVnL3xPZ1w=w640-h84" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>We know b) is false. So, if a) is also false then, as we claimed in our previous article, there is miscategorisation in the data; specificially, many of those dying shortly after vaccination are being classified as unvaccinated. </p><p>But even if a) is true the effect is the same: without the necessary adjustments to the data that we applied in our article, the data is worthless in terms of evaluating the effectiveness and safety of the vaccines. <br /></p><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">A colleague has produced an <a href="https://metatron.substack.com/p/ons-monthly-age-standardised-mortality" target="_blank">initial summary of the various anomalies in the report</a>, and an in-depth look at the 40-49 age group <a href="https://metatron.substack.com/p/going-deeper-on-the-ons-data-death" target="_blank">here</a>.<br /></span></span></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">As the data is simply not credible, <i><b>we believe this entire new report should be disregarded</b></i>. </span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">It is also important to note that, if the ONS released all the raw mortality data, then we would not need to rely on the 'age standardized mortality rate' estimates at all.</span> </span></span>An explanation of the age standardized mortality rate and also how it can easily mislead people is here: </span></span></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DAixfvu6tuY" width="320" youtube-src-id="DAixfvu6tuY"></iframe></div><p></p><p><br /></p><p>Our previous paper (which we are in the process of updating):<br /></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">Martin Neil, Norman Fenton, Joel
Smalley, Clare Craig, Joshua Guetzkow, Scott McLachlan, Jonathan Engler
and Jessica Rose, “Latest statistics on England mortality data suggest
systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain
effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination”, <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a class="keychainify-checked" href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356756711_Latest_statistics_on_England_mortality_data_suggest_systematic_mis-categorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483</a></span></span> <br /></div><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></span></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"> </span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></span></span></p><div class="notranslate" style="accent-color: initial; 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scrollbar-color: initial; scrollbar-width: initial; shape-image-threshold: initial; shape-margin: initial; shape-outside: initial; shape-rendering: initial; stop-color: initial; stop-opacity: initial; stroke-dasharray: initial; stroke-dashoffset: initial; stroke-linecap: initial; stroke-linejoin: initial; stroke-miterlimit: initial; stroke-opacity: initial; stroke-width: initial; stroke: initial; tab-size: initial; table-layout: initial; text-align-last: initial; text-align: initial; text-anchor: initial; text-combine-upright: initial; text-decoration-skip-ink: initial; text-decoration: initial; text-emphasis-position: initial; text-emphasis: initial; text-indent: initial; text-justify: initial; text-orientation: initial; text-overflow: initial; text-rendering: initial; text-shadow: initial; text-transform: initial; text-underline-offset: initial; text-underline-position: initial; touch-action: initial; transform-box: initial; transform-origin: initial; transform-style: initial; transform: initial; transition: initial; translate: initial; user-select: initial; vector-effect: initial; vertical-align: initial; visibility: initial; white-space: initial; width: initial; will-change: initial; word-break: initial; word-spacing: initial; writing-mode: initial; x: initial; y: initial; z-index: initial;"></div>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-21723705179066062162021-12-03T10:40:00.012-08:002021-12-24T07:34:26.103-08:00Possible systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status raises concerns about claims of Covid-19 vaccination effectiveness<p></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><i><b>24 Dec Update: </b></i>The <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/12/new-ons-report-on-deaths-by-vaccination.html" target="_blank">new ONS report has serious anomalies</a><i><b> <br /></b></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><i><b>5 Dec Update</b></i>: Norman Fenton was interviewed about this work on the Maajid Nawaz show on LBC on 4 Dec: </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"> </span>
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="rumble" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://rumble.com/embed/vnnqpb/?pub=9etny" width="640"></iframe>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"> </span></p><p></p><p><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"> </span><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8DzNElKIjPJxhqMBQ8SYk4gyZ7PVlrp8grw6irijB2D4GePNAmr0X6jpFYo2Y5Uo9apSZQr_48Hva8YGilkGRG8Vq74K_k5hG7Ft9XjO_sBnzRqXo1M1c6wk4aY3PvTdW9Qy-gp6a_hM8/s760/fig1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="760" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8DzNElKIjPJxhqMBQ8SYk4gyZ7PVlrp8grw6irijB2D4GePNAmr0X6jpFYo2Y5Uo9apSZQr_48Hva8YGilkGRG8Vq74K_k5hG7Ft9XjO_sBnzRqXo1M1c6wk4aY3PvTdW9Qy-gp6a_hM8/w640-h322/fig1.png" width="640" /></a></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;">
Our research team have
now analysed the ONS England November mortality data. We conclude that, despite
seeming evidence to support vaccine effectiveness, this conclusion is doubtful
because of a range of serious inconsistencies and anomalies. Our detailed report is <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><br /></span><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;">The data appear to show
lower non-Covid mortality for the vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated. Odd.
Also unvaccinated mortality rates peak at the same time as the vaccine rollout
peaks for the age group, then falls and closes in on the vaccinated. This is
not natural</span></span></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwtNwqlX8zaTx44JxtKG0YMV_Ii1qgIo5ND_5V9pz4Rw4kD7tPESMUe3Wzs31vULcDhev2h6k9954XAr2_moCtIbmATlsxMZjDpos2nThL11Eb5b1ybHeXIlMzcln9Lvd1GlT-6ipK90OK/s728/fig2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="293" data-original-width="728" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwtNwqlX8zaTx44JxtKG0YMV_Ii1qgIo5ND_5V9pz4Rw4kD7tPESMUe3Wzs31vULcDhev2h6k9954XAr2_moCtIbmATlsxMZjDpos2nThL11Eb5b1ybHeXIlMzcln9Lvd1GlT-6ipK90OK/w640-h258/fig2.png" width="640" /></a></span> </span><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;">Consider what we are
witnessing here. We have a vaccine whose recipients are suffering fewer
non-covid deaths and hence are benefitting from improved mortality. And the
mortality rates look to differ significantly from historical norms, as
evidenced in mortality lifetables.</span>
</span></p><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;">Correlating
unvaccinated mortality with vaccine roll out we see curious patterns (dotted
line the proportion of people getting first and second doses). Why are the
unvaccinated dying after NOT getting the 1st dose? Why are the single dosed
dying after NOT getting the 2nd dose?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"> </span><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTK7Hoiv3yarOj3hmoOihNjek0v1eNL1HavOGngNy6OSbrvDBFL5IMNd7x9SBWR6ZyRf19J45nQVuOoXD9Tocvxv8b6I6AO_kElqoY-i_7YeI-5AnmngZgl68qBHh9m6U__4nPVeh1qJTV/s775/fig4%2523.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="366" data-original-width="775" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTK7Hoiv3yarOj3hmoOihNjek0v1eNL1HavOGngNy6OSbrvDBFL5IMNd7x9SBWR6ZyRf19J45nQVuOoXD9Tocvxv8b6I6AO_kElqoY-i_7YeI-5AnmngZgl68qBHh9m6U__4nPVeh1qJTV/w640-h302/fig4%2523.png" width="640" /></a></span></p><p><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"> Plenty of evidence that
the vaccinated who die within 14 days of vaccination may be categorized as
unvaccinated. Then someone who dies within 14 days of first dose is
miscategorised as unvaccinated and a similar thing could occur post second
dose.<br /></span></p><p><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"> </span></p><p><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"> </span><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4mzCITMmZWhBclGAenaOAmMGfSFqga83qLRxa4N9xg6Bq8OJFFsPtD3Gz0fVzOSqXRgJuHXbjQ9YJIxZMtHXdnTKVyTGyvF5cB8gy57s-EtEJ6xTdACB7lmLXV0BuxSJGCw4sl8BSovvm/s876/fig5.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="876" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4mzCITMmZWhBclGAenaOAmMGfSFqga83qLRxa4N9xg6Bq8OJFFsPtD3Gz0fVzOSqXRgJuHXbjQ9YJIxZMtHXdnTKVyTGyvF5cB8gy57s-EtEJ6xTdACB7lmLXV0BuxSJGCw4sl8BSovvm/w640-h356/fig5.png" width="640" /></a></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;">Misca</span><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;">tegorization
might explain odd phenomena in ONS mortality (as <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/12/the-impact-of-misclassifying-deaths-in.html" target="_blank">previously explained with this hypothetical example</a>). To correct the error we can take
the difference between the expected mortality for the unvaccinated and the
data, and re-allocate this unexpected excess mortality to the vaccinated to get
new ADJUSTED estimates.</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmC9szDoSYRQtHIsT5YoarSe577r23e6YWNKlsroJXNY8hoYy1Q_Ht3DnLuLHJfg0cFu0zU8tABglnMYWTQd7yWtUXe2c-PScHTvAHPjsBwpvjE7UQ3fuNHPGDIrOZ3NsB73rFME76zQ5O/s841/fig6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="443" data-original-width="841" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmC9szDoSYRQtHIsT5YoarSe577r23e6YWNKlsroJXNY8hoYy1Q_Ht3DnLuLHJfg0cFu0zU8tABglnMYWTQd7yWtUXe2c-PScHTvAHPjsBwpvjE7UQ3fuNHPGDIrOZ3NsB73rFME76zQ5O/w640-h338/fig6.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;">The early spikes in
mortality that appear to occur soon after vaccination may be caused by the
infirm, moribund, and severely ill receiving vaccination in priority order and
thus simply appearing to hasten deaths that might otherwise have occurred later
in the year.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-language: HE;">Turning to Covid mortality, at face value, there appears to be clear
evidence of vaccine effectiveness. <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-language: HE;"> </span><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh47m-fvkiZ1n5Xt16oH7Abu5hGERkW34j-jP_kfq09YZ0a2-zrSQzKzIffPF0wQ81DB2yak1EYyk-CwNanOg6khhE6EKH0ZXwp3ZOLKWpjOMywXrRnZzBaNvva_5vJxGGmm_u3PNVtefWW/s786/fig8.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="304" data-original-width="786" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh47m-fvkiZ1n5Xt16oH7Abu5hGERkW34j-jP_kfq09YZ0a2-zrSQzKzIffPF0wQ81DB2yak1EYyk-CwNanOg6khhE6EKH0ZXwp3ZOLKWpjOMywXrRnZzBaNvva_5vJxGGmm_u3PNVtefWW/w640-h248/fig8.png" width="640" /></a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-language: HE;"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-language: HE;">But……..</span>After vaccination people endure weakened immune response for a period of
up to 28 days and may be in danger of infection from Covid or other infectious
agent at any time in that period. It therefore makes sense to examine infection
date rather than date of death registration.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-language: HE;">We adjust for this using a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>temporal offset and see a large spike in mortality for all age groups
during the early weeks, when covid prevalence was high, and when the first dose
vaccination rollout peaked.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-language: HE;"> </span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBHLCgChJp0HGaSH46RUkt8wTaZeIJp_ePZNHGeI7y_Dud_e67s7ecAyaO0aKs0b2l6oCzOWvrS3k2B_HgB2gv5CEH58x7z1E-WQnfc_uc6aahxjtzi5vsQ4B9gvC3IcSC45vKE-XQvuOK/s839/fig9.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="367" data-original-width="839" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBHLCgChJp0HGaSH46RUkt8wTaZeIJp_ePZNHGeI7y_Dud_e67s7ecAyaO0aKs0b2l6oCzOWvrS3k2B_HgB2gv5CEH58x7z1E-WQnfc_uc6aahxjtzi5vsQ4B9gvC3IcSC45vKE-XQvuOK/w640-h280/fig9.png" width="640" /></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-language: HE;">After our offset adjustment we observe no significant benefit of the
vaccines in the short term. They appear to expose people to an increased
mortality, in line with what we know about immune exposure or pre-infection
risks,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-language: HE;">Whatever the explanations for the observed data, it is clear that the ONS
data is both unreliable and misleading. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-language: HE;">Absent any better explanation Occam’s razor would support our conclusions.
The ONS data provide no reliable evidence that the vaccines reduce all-cause
mortality.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;">Full reference: <br /></span></p>
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<![endif]--></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bidi-language: HE;">Martin Neil, Norman
Fenton, Joel Smalley, Clare Craig, Joshua Guetzkow, Scott McLachlan, Jonathan
Engler and Jessica Rose, “<i>Latest statistics on England mortality data suggest
systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of
Covid-19 vaccination</i>”, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483</a></span></p>
<p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><b><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">The paper has also benefited from the input of senior clinicians and other researchers who remain anonymous to protect their careers.</span></b></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">See also:</span></p><p><a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/12/the-impact-of-misclassifying-deaths-in.html" target="_blank"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">The impact of misclassifying deaths in evaluating vaccine safety: the same statistical illusion</span></a></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">This video provides some background:</span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6umArFc-fdc" width="320" youtube-src-id="6umArFc-fdc"></iframe></span></div><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><br /> <br /></span><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"> </span></p></span><p></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com30tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-68602016025199473242021-12-01T01:41:00.002-08:002021-12-01T01:58:48.104-08:00The impact of misclassifying deaths in evaluating vaccine safety: the same statistical illusion<p class="MsoNormal"> In a <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vaccine-efficacy-statistical-illusion.html" target="_blank">previous post</a>
we showed that if there was a one-week delay in reporting deaths then a vaccine
that was a placebo would be seen to have a decreased mortality rate for the vaccinated compared to
the unvaccinated. In other words, an illusion
of effectiveness is created by the one-week delay in reporting. This is shown
in Figure 1 with our hypothetical example comparing the correct figures to the reported
figures based on a one-week delay. The example assumes that in this population
of 10 million people there is a (constant) weekly mortality rate of 50 deaths
per 100,000 people. Each week the population reduces by the number of deaths
the previous week. All death numbers (which are simply the relevant population
multiplied by 50/100000) are rounded to whole numbers.</p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgDgSrFpb6iNracKfKZpmrtoBAdICv66V2wrD5jyHDK-Pg8oMAzTOH_paoji-bF7fSUvbi4FnnFvSAXFYUhhpMouwbjMZUd_QWlP_-H-fdKBuOXQl_qKj8sWxlHCcgWZd39xUzGlLKH4AB/s2048/table1a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1770" data-original-width="2048" height="554" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgDgSrFpb6iNracKfKZpmrtoBAdICv66V2wrD5jyHDK-Pg8oMAzTOH_paoji-bF7fSUvbi4FnnFvSAXFYUhhpMouwbjMZUd_QWlP_-H-fdKBuOXQl_qKj8sWxlHCcgWZd39xUzGlLKH4AB/w640-h554/table1a.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Figure 1: Hypothetical example of a
placebo vaccine introduced into a population. A) shows correct results; B)
shows results reported if there isa one-week delay in reporting deaths</span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It turns out that, under the same hypothetical assumptions, the
same results arise if, instead of a one-week delay in death reporting there is
a misclassification of newly vaccinated deaths; specifically, any death of a person
occurring in the same week as the person is vaccinated is treated as an
unvaccinated, rather than vaccinated, death. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Table
1: Reported deaths and mortality rate if newly vaccinated deaths are reported
as unvaccinated</span></i></b></p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij2xEOSI3EwxaCXTSbaRywOH7q6Wnjz-t1NTiDg8GMWc4APgJA9Ul0eWfKGux7Tye_ZfjOOp6_LP0YKPrKyNTx_-4xCJckeWe2v54DzFTAthV7_NtH8lPOG-LW6a7YMfLZFQVO-HcYz_KT/s903/table+1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="333" data-original-width="903" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij2xEOSI3EwxaCXTSbaRywOH7q6Wnjz-t1NTiDg8GMWc4APgJA9Ul0eWfKGux7Tye_ZfjOOp6_LP0YKPrKyNTx_-4xCJckeWe2v54DzFTAthV7_NtH8lPOG-LW6a7YMfLZFQVO-HcYz_KT/w640-h236/table+1.jpg" width="640" /></a><p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A proof of why the results are equivalent (except for week
1) is provided below. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The plot resulting from either reporting error is shown in
Figure 2. </p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /></span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN3h3X0_4knG6EuV8v1hx9qkspddxPek9eOXYsFQO6417YdIpT1gH8B5CfGQBGqL7IQ2BWt1xNu8rI0EXNaIyJpRvwbf_b4zyfM6QDor_gDgXQDLxJGzqQxmqFT72kXa3Q4LpDWk_3LYJ4/s818/Picture2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="514" data-original-width="818" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN3h3X0_4knG6EuV8v1hx9qkspddxPek9eOXYsFQO6417YdIpT1gH8B5CfGQBGqL7IQ2BWt1xNu8rI0EXNaIyJpRvwbf_b4zyfM6QDor_gDgXQDLxJGzqQxmqFT72kXa3Q4LpDWk_3LYJ4/w640-h402/Picture2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Figure 2 Plot of weekly mortality
rates under either the delayed death reporting or death misclassification scenarios</span></i></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It shows the apparently clear life-saving benefit of the ‘vaccine’. </p><p class="MsoNormal">But there is an obvious indication that these results are not real. If they were,
why would the mortality rate in the unvaccinated peak at about the same time as
the vaccine programme reaches its peak?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It turns out that the plots for mortality rates from the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021" target="_blank">ONSreport (weeks 1-38)</a> for the Covid-19 vaccination programme in each of the older
age categories look remarkably similar to the plot in Figure 2, i.e. with the same peaks in
unvaccinated mortality coinciding with when the vaccination programme reached
its peak for this age group. For example, Figure 3 shows the 60-69 age group (for
which vaccination peak was reached in week 11) and Figure 4 shows the 80+ age
groups (for which vaccination peak was reached in week 6).</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbh9zCQdt9HHOPdF4H6aPT2WUqVOQO_tOpVBYS_nOCzy03Rn7QyLOLp6GxMrWNyClY1JGBL5oeWx4-9AD2Yxp2C873jdBEwdYykC_OES0_ZsMc2oa_Vk_pzd0IWLkkZwae7WcmSHCX2xhH/s2048/Picture3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1228" data-original-width="2048" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbh9zCQdt9HHOPdF4H6aPT2WUqVOQO_tOpVBYS_nOCzy03Rn7QyLOLp6GxMrWNyClY1JGBL5oeWx4-9AD2Yxp2C873jdBEwdYykC_OES0_ZsMc2oa_Vk_pzd0IWLkkZwae7WcmSHCX2xhH/w640-h384/Picture3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Figure 3 Plot of weekly mortality
rates for Covid19 vaccinated v unvaccinated (this is all-cause mortality but the plots are have hesame shape even if deaths classified as Covid are removed) </span></i></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"> </p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOmILUVhygPia-xZGQPMqPmQF8KtF5DEQWx52T78LxbntxxyKJGOSxRf8EYREcau_pPb4Y-sSyqxXriHia45NTkpBov8yA0ySrKLIMYd_eVKx423b5A86FmvzW4d2y5J7a0J3ADsRr4AHO/s780/Picture4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="523" data-original-width="780" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOmILUVhygPia-xZGQPMqPmQF8KtF5DEQWx52T78LxbntxxyKJGOSxRf8EYREcau_pPb4Y-sSyqxXriHia45NTkpBov8yA0ySrKLIMYd_eVKx423b5A86FmvzW4d2y5J7a0J3ADsRr4AHO/w640-h430/Picture4.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"></span><p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Figure 4 Plot of weekly mortality
rates under either the delayed death reporting or death misclassification</span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Why are the theoretical results important? Because they at
least partly explain how the strange observed ONS results could occur even if
the mortality rate of the vaccinated was the same (or even higher) than that of
the unvaccinated. While it seems that deaths in the ONS report are being reported by date of death (hence are not delayed), newly vaccinated deaths are being classified as unvaccinated. Indeed, it is likely that any death within the first 14 days of vaccination may be classified as unvaccinated.<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Moreover, as we will explain in the full analysis that we are currenly preparing, the ONS
data provides other clues that suggest different types of errors in reporting. For
example, even at the end of the reporting period (when errors such as death misclassification
should be minimal and indeed the plots converge) the non-covid mortality rate
for the vaccinated is still consistently lower than that of the unvaccinated.
This suggests that the proportion of unvaccinated must be systematically underestimated.
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Proof
that, for a population with constant weekly mortality rate, a one-week delay in
reporting deaths is equivalent to misclassifying newly vaccinated deaths.</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We are assuming that every person who dies in the same week
that hey are vaccinated is classified as unvaccinated. Before providing the
formal proof, Table 2 provides an informal explanation</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Table 2:
Informal explanation showing why one week delay in death reporting is
equivalent to misclassifying newly vaccinated deaths</span></i></b></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none; margin-left: 30.35pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 536px;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.05pt;" valign="top" width="45">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">week</span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 58.6pt;" valign="top" width="78">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Total vaccinated (P)</span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Newly vaccinated (N)</span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Weekly vaccinated deaths<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(A)</span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.35pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Newly vaccinated deaths<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
(B)</span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.8pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Reported vacc deaths 1-week delay</span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Reported vacc deaths with misclassification (A-B)</span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.05pt;" valign="top" width="45">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">1</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 58.6pt;" valign="top" width="78">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">10,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">10,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">5</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.35pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">5</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.8pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">0</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.05pt;" valign="top" width="45">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">2</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 58.6pt;" valign="top" width="78">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">100,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">90,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">50</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.35pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">45</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.8pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">5</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">5</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.05pt;" valign="top" width="45">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">3</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 58.6pt;" valign="top" width="78">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">200,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">100,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">100</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.35pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">50</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.8pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">50</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">50</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.05pt;" valign="top" width="45">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">4</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 58.6pt;" valign="top" width="78">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">400,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">200,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">200</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.35pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">100</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.8pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">100</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">100</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.05pt;" valign="top" width="45">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">5</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 58.6pt;" valign="top" width="78">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">800,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">400,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">400</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.35pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">200</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.8pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">200</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">200</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.05pt;" valign="top" width="45">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">6</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 58.6pt;" valign="top" width="78">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">820,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">20,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">410</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.35pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">10</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.8pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">400</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">400</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.05pt;" valign="top" width="45">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">7</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 58.6pt;" valign="top" width="78">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">830,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">10,000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.5pt;" valign="top" width="74">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">415</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.35pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">5</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.8pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">410</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">410</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Formal Proof</b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Let <i>m</i> be weekly mortality
rate</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Let <i>P<sub>t</sub></i> be
total vaccinated at week<i> t</i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Let <i>N<sub>t</sub></i> be
number newly vaccinated in week <i>t</i>. Then <i>N<sub>t</sub></i>=<i>P<sub>t</sub></i>
– <i>P<sub>t-1</sub></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Let <i>A<sub>t</sub> </i>be
total number of deaths of vaccinated in week <i>t</i>. So, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i>A<sub>t</sub></i>=<i>m</i><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">*</span><i>P<sub>t</sub>
</i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Let <i>B<sub>t</sub></i>
the number of deaths of newly vaccinated in week <i>t</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So <i>B<sub>t</sub></i>=<i>m</i>*<i>N<sub>t</sub></i>
= <i>m</i>*( <i>P<sub>t</sub> </i>– <i>P<sub>t-1</sub></i>) by (3)</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>The number of reported deaths
in week <i>t</i> is <i>A<sub>t </sub></i>– <i>B<sub>t</sub></i> = <i>m</i>*<i>P<sub>t</sub>
</i>– <i>m</i>*( <i>P<sub>t</sub></i> – <i>P<sub>t-1</sub></i>) = <i>m</i>*<i>P<sub>t-1</sub></i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>by (5) which is the number of actual deaths
in week (<i>t-1</i>)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com37tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-28906604583600761962021-11-14T13:23:00.016-08:002021-12-01T01:58:28.594-08:00Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?<div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><b>1 Dec 2021 upate: see <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/12/the-impact-of-misclassifying-deaths-in.html" target="_blank">update to this article</a> showing that the same statistical illusion of efficacy occurs if newly vaccinated deaths are classified as unvaccinated.</b></i><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">To evaluate the risk/benefit of a
vaccine for treating a virus, such as covid-19, we can compare the all-cause
mortality rate of vaccinated against unvaccinated people on a periodic basis.
If the mortality rate for those vaccinated is consistently lower than that for
unvaccinated then we might conclude the vaccine must be beneficial.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Placebo Vaccination</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Imagine that a placebo rather
than a vaccine is quickly rolled out to a population of one million people of
similar age and health. Let’s assume the weekly non-virus mortality rate for
this population is 15 per 100,000 (100k), so we would expect about 150 out of
the million to die in any given week. Because the placebo changes nothing, the
mortality rates for both vaccinated and unvaccinated average the same 15 per
100k, each week every week. Hence, on average, what we should observe – as the
‘vaccination’ programme rolls out to most of the population - is shown in Table
1. Notice that the placebo vaccine roll-out programme is enacted at pace and
the cumulative percentage of the population vaccinated rises to 98% within 12
weeks.</p>
<p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="break-after: avoid; margin-bottom: 0cm; page-break-after: avoid; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;">Table </span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">1</span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;">
Roll out of placebo ‘vaccine’. No observed differences in mortality rates (no
population growth and each week total population reduced by previous week’s
deaths)</span></b></span></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="3" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.55pt;" valign="top" width="198">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"> </p>
</td>
<td colspan="3" style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 146.2pt;" valign="top" width="195">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">Vaccinated</span></b></p>
</td>
<td colspan="3" style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 156.05pt;" valign="top" width="208">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">Unvaccinated</span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Week</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Population</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Cumulative Percentage vaccinated</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="top" width="53">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Deaths</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Population</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Mortality rate</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">Deaths</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Population</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Mortality rate</span></b></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1,000,000</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">0.5</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">5,000</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">149</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">995,000</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,850</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">9,999</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">989,852</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">3</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,700</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">3</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">19,994</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">147</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">979,706</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">4</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,550</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">4</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">6</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">39,982</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">144</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">959,568</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">5</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,400</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">7</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">10</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">69,958</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">139</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">929,442</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">6</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,250</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">14</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">21</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">139,895</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">129</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">859,355</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">7</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,100</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">28</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">42</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">279,748</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">108</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">719,352</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">8</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,950</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">45</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">67</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">449,528</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">82</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">549,423</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">9</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,801</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">65</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">97</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">649,220</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">52</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">349,580</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">10</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,651</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">80</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">120</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">798,921</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">30</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">199,730</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">11</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,501</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">93</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">139</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">928,606</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">10</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">69,895</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">12</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,351</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">98</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">147</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">978,384</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">3</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">19,967</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">13</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,201</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">98.5</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">147</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">983,228</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">14,973</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 15;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">14</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,052</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">98.6</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">984,079</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">13,973</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 16;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,902</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">98.7</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">984,929</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">12,973</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 17;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">16</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,752</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">98.9</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">986,777</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">10,975</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 18;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">17</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,603</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">99</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">987,627</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">9,976</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 19;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">18</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,453</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">99.1</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">988,476</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">8,977</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 20;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">19</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,303</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">99.2</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">989,325</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">7,978</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 21; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">20</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,154</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">99.3</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">149</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">990,174</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">6,980</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Now suppose there is a one-week
delay in the reporting of deaths. Such delays are routine in statistical
reporting of mortality and vaccine data. Then the data reported by the
authorities is different from reality, here shown in Table 2, which is the same
as Table 1 but where the death totals are simply ‘shifted’ down one week.</p>
<p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="break-after: avoid; margin-bottom: 0cm; page-break-after: avoid; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;">Table 2 Death reporting delayed by one
week</span></b></span></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="3" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.55pt;" valign="top" width="198">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"> </p>
</td>
<td colspan="3" style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 146.2pt;" valign="top" width="195">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">Vaccinated</span></b></p>
</td>
<td colspan="3" style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 156.05pt;" valign="top" width="208">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">Unvaccinated</span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Week</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Population</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Cumulative Percentage vaccinated</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="top" width="53">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Deaths</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Population</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Mortality rate</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">Deaths</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="top" width="75">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Population</span></b></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Mortality rate</span></b></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1,000,000</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">0.5</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">-</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">5,000</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">-</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">-</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">995,000</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="bottom" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">-</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,850</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">9,999</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">7.50</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">149</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">989,852</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">15.08</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">3</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,700</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">19,994</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">7.50</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">979,706</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">15.16</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">4</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,550</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">4</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">3</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">39,982</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">7.50</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">147</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">959,568</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">15.31</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">5</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,400</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">7</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">6</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">69,958</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">8.57</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">144</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">929,442</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">15.49</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">6</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,250</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">14</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">10</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">139,895</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">7.50</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">139</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">859,355</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">16.22</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">7</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">999,100</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">28</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">21</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">279,748</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">7.50</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">129</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">719,352</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">17.92</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">8</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,950</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">45</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">42</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">449,528</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">9.33</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">108</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">549,423</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">19.64</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">9</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,801</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">65</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">67</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">649,220</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">10.39</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">82</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">349,580</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">23.57</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">10</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,651</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">80</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">97</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">798,921</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">12.19</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">52</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">199,730</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">26.25</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">11</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,501</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">93</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">120</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">928,606</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">12.91</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">30</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">69,895</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">42.86</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">12</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,351</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">98</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">139</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">978,384</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">14.24</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">10</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">19,967</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">52.51</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">13</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,201</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">98.5</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">147</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">983,228</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">14.93</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">3</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">14,973</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">20.00</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 15;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">14</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">998,052</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">98.6</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">147</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">984,079</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">14.99</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">13,973</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">16.07</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 16;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,902</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">98.7</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">984,929</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">14.99</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">12,973</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">16.16</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 17;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">16</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,752</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">98.9</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">986,777</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">14.97</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">10,975</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">17.73</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 18;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">17</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,603</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">99</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">987,627</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">14.99</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">9,976</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">16.50</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 19;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">18</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,453</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">99.1</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">988,476</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">14.99</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">8,977</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">16.67</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 20;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">19</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,303</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">99.2</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">989,325</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">14.99</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">7,978</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">16.88</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 21; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 34.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="46">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">20</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">997,154</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 57.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="77">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">99.3</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.9pt;" valign="bottom" width="53">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">148</span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">990,174</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 242; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">14.99</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 56.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="75">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">6,980</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(208, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-background-themecolor: background2; mso-background-themeshade: 230; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 50pt;" valign="top" width="67">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">17.15</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"> (Update) Here's a 60-second video showing how to this is done in Excel and proving there are no tricks involved other than simply shifting the deaths down by one week:<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dxGgT9jyWvR9l5WTmGerDvAMPCt9dhGPn8CNYz9VICgiTXcObyvFX-EItRivp-VLdfbhnkHa7zWZlgvf0WfGw' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Suppose we want to examine and
compare the mortality rates of the unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts based on
the data in Table 2. Figure 1 shows this comparison, and we can see that the
mortality rate is consistently lower for the vaccinated than that for the unvaccinated
throughout the roll out of the vaccination programme and it reduces as soon as vaccination
nears population saturation at close to 100%.</p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="break-after: avoid; page-break-after: avoid; text-align: center;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKiLa0Xz4o2ttkuCRG9z4WKwEe3GJsIWVXSnWHK9I7jwvzW18_HwHRfywSpx4b05Tkgb8gfaOGH-pbRn6ZbTNMJMrKA2prVJxiiOz7fW-R6fuB_qOZrOo_klnp_qA4GTA4YIhi1vx1234I/s908/Picture1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="582" data-original-width="908" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKiLa0Xz4o2ttkuCRG9z4WKwEe3GJsIWVXSnWHK9I7jwvzW18_HwHRfywSpx4b05Tkgb8gfaOGH-pbRn6ZbTNMJMrKA2prVJxiiOz7fW-R6fuB_qOZrOo_klnp_qA4GTA4YIhi1vx1234I/w640-h410/Picture1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a name="_Hlk87806094"><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;">Figure </span></b></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk87806094;"><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">1</span></span></b></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk87806094;"><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;">
Reported weekly mortality rates vaccinated against unvaccinated</span></b></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk87806094;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">We might conclude that those who
remain unvaccinated look to be suffering much higher levels of mortality than
the vaccinated. The reporting delay therefore creates a completely artificial
impression that the vaccine must be highly effective. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, it looks like a magic ‘cure all’
wonder drug! </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The fact that the mortality rate
of the unvaccinated peaks when the percentage of those vaccinated peaks should
ring some alarm bells that something strange is going on (unless there is independent
evidence that the virus was peaking at the same time).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">ONS data on Covid-19 Vaccination</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">While the placebo vaccine example
was purely hypothetical, Figure 2 shows the vaccinated against unvaccinated mortality
using the data in the latest ONS report mortality in England by Covid-19
vaccination status (weeks 1 to 38)<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a>,
complemented by NIMS vaccination survey data (up to week 27 only). Here we show
other-than covid mortality to remove the virus signal.</p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"> </p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7X2ZleFKGcdlWXJfh5qDdCTb7ijpuKNDBesIfgr4n1NmvBzRo_Ujr_ObQobc7p_mcB57cwtbSZ509k2iIcfPRxFr51gtPDheuPK5ZwDObgLrh8cNllhAA-ycrnJ20QYngKGUwMECqLRae/s963/Picture2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="963" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7X2ZleFKGcdlWXJfh5qDdCTb7ijpuKNDBesIfgr4n1NmvBzRo_Ujr_ObQobc7p_mcB57cwtbSZ509k2iIcfPRxFr51gtPDheuPK5ZwDObgLrh8cNllhAA-ycrnJ20QYngKGUwMECqLRae/w640-h426/Picture2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"></span><p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;">Figure
</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">2</span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;">
Reported weekly other-than covid mortality rates for vaccinated versus
unvaccinated for 60-69 age group for weeks 1-38 2021</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Note that we see the same
features as the shifted graph in Figure 1. In other words, a perfectly
reasonable explanation for what is observed here could be that there is no
difference in mortality rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated and the mortality
differences are simply a result of a delay in death reporting. Moreover, given
we have removed covid deaths (which were only a small percentage of all-cause
deaths in the reported data) we get a near identical result for non-covid
mortality to that which would result if the vaccine were a placebo! Thus, we
appear to have created a statistical illusion of vaccine efficacy.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">It is important to note that we are not claiming the death reporting is delayed in the ONS data. In fact our work on this is ongoing and we believe that the most plausible explanation is misclassification and underestimation of proportion of unvaccinated. <br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">If this is not a statistical
illusion how is it possible that the unvaccinated are dying from non-covid
causes at a higher rate than vaccinated? Also how is it possible that, at the
time vaccination rates are ramped up to nearly 100% of the population, the
nonvaccinated are dying from non-covid deaths at almost twice the rate of those
who are vaccinated? </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">These same patterns are also observable
in the 70-79 and 80+ age groups (with the mortality peaks for the unvaccinated
appearing at different weeks because these age groups received vaccinations
earlier). This strongly suggests that what we are observing is a genuine statistical
illusion unexplainable by any real impact of the vaccine on mortality rates. <br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Consider a deadly placebo</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">It is also important to note that
even if the actual mortality rate for the vaccinated was higher than that of
the unvaccinated, where the vaccine was causing death, as a side effect, we
would still likely observe the same illusion.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">To see this effect let’s revisit
our placebo vaccine example and make a small change to Table 1 where instead of
a mortality rate of 15 per 100k for the vaccinated, suppose it is 17 per 100k
(a rise in mortality of approximately 13%). So, the placebo vaccine is killing two
more people per 100k and gives no mortality benefit otherwise. In this scenario
the reported mortality rate for the ‘deadly placebo’ is compared to the first
‘placebo’ scenario, in Figure 3. Even here we see the illusion that the mortality
rate for the vaccinated is lower than unvaccinated. Both scenarios are the
opposite of reality, and both look interchangeable. This means the chance of
picking up a vaccine side effect signal is close to impossible and instead the
illusion is created of vaccine efficacy.</p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-table-layout-alt: fixed; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 623px;">
<tbody><tr style="height: 167pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; height: 167pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 240.75pt;" valign="top" width="321">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoNzkpeSdgqrmtEjQS2k7D3_dg3JxhqRPEE9Gfe5MeYgy-Os1LBGTUHUWxywFlhigKBR57c21GF-enGQVA4RiaE4j6NTU9G0CXXWa9FV9WHeLKU77IROpP4bNeZPrhmRd0t7mkXQl6g3L7/s471/Picture3a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="419" data-original-width="471" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoNzkpeSdgqrmtEjQS2k7D3_dg3JxhqRPEE9Gfe5MeYgy-Os1LBGTUHUWxywFlhigKBR57c21GF-enGQVA4RiaE4j6NTU9G0CXXWa9FV9WHeLKU77IROpP4bNeZPrhmRd0t7mkXQl6g3L7/s320/Picture3a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /></span><p></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; height: 167pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8cm;" valign="top" width="302">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2iFndYysXyJ023AdPV9brwKdWRngoJLigV-waFhp_h3Eoot-srLfEwGiy0iRCnMRyOzkUMARi53kBhH3gDOD2trzuP1z8BvyZJUDkk0KRtSi76Wa-2-wcyPED9HK-IDbo9e3r8ViJXsKY/s464/Picture3b.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="419" data-original-width="464" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2iFndYysXyJ023AdPV9brwKdWRngoJLigV-waFhp_h3Eoot-srLfEwGiy0iRCnMRyOzkUMARi53kBhH3gDOD2trzuP1z8BvyZJUDkk0KRtSi76Wa-2-wcyPED9HK-IDbo9e3r8ViJXsKY/s320/Picture3b.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /></span><p></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;">Figure
</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">3</span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;">
Reported weekly mortality rates vaccinated against unvaccinated for ‘placebo’
scenario and ‘deadly placebo’ scenarios</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The illusion of declining vaccine efficacy</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Finally, it is important to note
that the same statistical illusion applies to all measures of vaccine efficacy whether
they be cases, hospitalizations, or deaths. In fact, replacing the number of
deaths in Table 1 with number of cases, with a one week reporting delay, would
result in vaccine efficacy rates as shown in Figure 4.</p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwUpSkID69yILKUTdgNWKfAJKKFTS_p4lO74K714BXNa8uBo9p-iIuryHXlw4bckvnDlpEVSn8gwJvhQi_RUlq4FLt4COWsCiZi58Fa00HEWCRqx-d3oFwZVW6wAPfjfjeHBFneDU9yJIN/s1652/Picture4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="992" data-original-width="1652" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwUpSkID69yILKUTdgNWKfAJKKFTS_p4lO74K714BXNa8uBo9p-iIuryHXlw4bckvnDlpEVSn8gwJvhQi_RUlq4FLt4COWsCiZi58Fa00HEWCRqx-d3oFwZVW6wAPfjfjeHBFneDU9yJIN/w400-h240/Picture4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;">Figure
</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">4</span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-style: normal; mso-themecolor: text1;">
Reported vaccine efficacy rates equivalent for placebo vaccine</span></b></span></div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">This occurs when the actual placebo
vaccine efficacy for cases is zero.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">This reporting bias is one type
of bias that might be called ‘reporting lag censoring’, a phenomenon whereby structural
or process factors systematically interfere with when data is handled and
reported with the consequential effect that it is then misinterpreted, leading
to false conclusions.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">UPDATE: Here is a 25 minute lecture explain the background and ongoing work:</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6umArFc-fdc" width="320" youtube-src-id="6umArFc-fdc"></iframe></div> <p></p><div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a> https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021</p>
</div>
</div>
Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com226tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-31259267806261209402021-10-21T03:39:00.015-07:002021-10-28T08:12:29.701-07:00Comparing all-cause mortality rate by age group: vaccinated v unvaccinated<p>In a <a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/09/all-cause-mortality-rates-in-england.html" target="_blank">previous article</a><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></span></span></span>we argued that to determine the overall risk-benefit of Covid-19 vaccines
it is crucial to be able to compare the all-cause mortality rates between the
vaccinated and unvaccinated in each different age category. However, current
publicly available UK Government statistics do not include raw data on
mortality by age category and vaccination status. Hence, we are unable to make
the necessary comparison. In a <a href="http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/papers/inconsistencies_vaccine.pdf" target="_blank">new paper</a> we explain how we attempted to reverse engineer estimates of
mortality by age category and vaccination status from the various relevant public
Government datasets; unfortunately, we found numerous discrepancies and inconsistencies which
indicate that the Office for National Statistics reports on vaccine
effectiveness are grossly underestimating the number of unvaccinated people.
Hence, official statistics may be underestimating the mortality rates for
vaccinated people in each age category. Although we have not subjected this
data to statistical testing, the potential implications of these results on the
effects of vaccination on all-cause mortality, and by implication, the future
of the vaccination programme is profound.</p><p>The new paper </p><p>
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</xml><![endif]--></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Martin Neil, Norman Fenton and Scott McLachlan (2021), "Discrepancies and inconsistencies in UK Government datasets
compromise accuracy of mortality rate comparisons between vaccinated and
unvaccinated", <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32817.10086">http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32817.10086</a> <i><b>[Update: there are errors in this version on ResearchGate). A significantly updated version of the paper is <a href="http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/papers/inconsistencies_vaccine.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>]</b></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4UcPnYy4L5gMxjMFiz5tqELjID1IB_CZ9aPdpE5gPXPStAO4QcGGYRWLnp33Jhxswjyc12h733NpAHQkhKvfMSzwu8zPejlzr_ssS8t6Kye5LjyHmIyb_8IFNK253rliRV62E0TkPkF_L/s2048/all_cause_mortality.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1343" data-original-width="2048" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4UcPnYy4L5gMxjMFiz5tqELjID1IB_CZ9aPdpE5gPXPStAO4QcGGYRWLnp33Jhxswjyc12h733NpAHQkhKvfMSzwu8zPejlzr_ssS8t6Kye5LjyHmIyb_8IFNK253rliRV62E0TkPkF_L/w640-h420/all_cause_mortality.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfMNU4sWX0-XJUd0bp2ayXEyDCmHEL2gON4yMMG9EIGlS5Ovb3FczGQ2l9LuKjRcc1wWTHXuW0AE7KiDBT-ddHE4pevInSkcoEBLNNu1PqM2gqEpyob5UKmkSgbLv9WGmmg96UW1uhVDOa/s2048/all_cause_mortality.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div><br /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<p></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-12218351098938632992021-10-06T07:31:00.004-07:002021-10-10T02:09:29.774-07:00Covid-19 claims and the ludicrous 'fact checkers' of fullfact.org<p> <span data-offset-key="foo-0-0" style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true">10 Oct update: </span></span><a class="_3Bkfb _1lsz7" href="https://dailysceptic.org/2021/10/08/fact-checking-the-fact-checkers/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span data-offset-key="foo-1-0" style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;"><span data-text="true">This article</span></span></a><span data-offset-key="foo-2-0" style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;"><span data-text="true"> confirms that fullfact are the ones who really need to be fact checked continually. Seems we were not the only people they are harrassing for simply reporting what was in the ONS data. </span></span></p><p> </p><p>Readers of this blog will be aware that anybody who challenges (or even deviates slightly from) the 'official narrative' on Covid-19 is likely to be subject to both censorship and attempts to discredit. </p><p>It is somewhat flattering to know that our own work is considered a sufficient challenge to the narrative that we have now come to the attention of the self-appointed 'fact checking' organization fullfact.org. <br /></p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
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</p><p class="MsoCommentText">Even long before Covid, fullfact.org had a record of
<a href="https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/faux-facts-disturbing-truth-about-fullfactorg" target="_blank">getting things provably wrong</a>.
Moreover, its biases and lack of independence have even <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7706715/How-Google-George-Soros-eBays-founder-fund-Fact-group.html" target="_blank">previously been exposed by the UK Govt itself</a>. There have been multiple documented instances of this organization’s errors in
its Covid19 reporting such as <a href="https://theexpose.uk/2021/03/10/fact-check-100k-covid-deaths-our-response-to-fullfact-org/" target="_blank">here</a>. </p><p class="MsoCommentText">A representative of fullfact contacted me yesterday about <a href="https://www.normanfenton.com/post/comparing-age-adjusted-all-cause-mortality-rates-in-england-between-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated" target="_blank">our article</a> which showed that the Government's own most recent data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety (suggesting more evidence was needed before it could really be claimed to be safe and effective). </p><p class="MsoCommentText">The correspondence (reproduced below) demonstrates how fullfact work and also how incompetent they are. They search for somebody on twitter who is trying to discredit the claim they wish to say is false and assume that such a person is an authoritative source. The fact that twitter hides critical responses to this 'authoritative source' compounds their confirmation bias. <br /></p>
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<![endif]--></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Dear Professor Fenton<br clear="all" style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"> I'm writing from Full Fact about <a href="https://www.normanfenton.com/post/comparing-age-adjusted-all-cause-mortality-rates-in-england-between-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated">your
recent blog</a> on the ONS's ASMR data by vaccination status.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"> According to <a href="https://twitter.com/Mike_aka_Logiqx/status/1442090955885137920?s=20">this
twitter thread</a> (which you may have seen?), the trends you identify in the
blog do not necessarily reflect concerning clinical outcomes, but are what
you would expect to see as the age profile of the vaccinated
groups changed over time. Do you agree with this?</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"> I noticed that your blog says: "It is also
important to note that the population of vaccinated people is becoming
sufficiently large and representative that the criticality of age
adjustment becomes much diminished. We will be doing a follow-up analysis
that takes account of this." This sounds like it would address the issue.
Do you know when this follow-up analysis will be published?</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"> All the best</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><NAME REMOVED><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 7.5pt;"></span><span style="color: #222222;"></span>
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #222222;"> </span><b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 7.5pt;">Full Fact</span></b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 7.5pt;"><br />
<a href="https://fullfact.org/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc;">fullfact.org</span></a><br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/FullFact" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc;">Twitter</span></a> • <a href="https://www.facebook.com/FullFact.org" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc;">Facebook</span></a> • <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/company/fullfact" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc;">LinkedIn</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222;"></span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 10pt;"> A registered charity (no. 1158683) and a non-profit company (no.
6975984) limited by guarantee and registered in England and Wales. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 7.5pt;">2 Carlton Gardens, London, SW1Y 5AA.</span><span style="color: #222222;"></span></p>
<p> </p><p>My response:</p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Dear <NAME REMOVED><br /></span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">For a supposed
‘fact checker’ I find it interesting that you failed to check that I had not
only seen the thread by Michael George that you referred to but had made 3
responses to it (screenshot below);</span><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> here are the actual
links to my response: </span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"></span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><a href="https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1442395816144949256?s=20">https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1442395816144949256?s=20</a></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><a href="https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1442115313038868480?s=20">https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1442115313038868480?s=20</a></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><a href="https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1442114417622228992?s=20">https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1442114417622228992?s=20</a></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Of course, because
organizations like yours try to discredit anybody who challenges the ‘official’
narrative on Covid-19, anybody who does challenge this narrative tends to get
shadow-banned on twitter; indeed my replies
to hit pieces like that of Michael George are not easy to find. </span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">We are indeed
working on a follow-up analysis which is massively complicated by the fact that
the ONS and PHE will not release the age categorized data on vaccination status
and all-cause deaths. </span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Perhaps your
investigative time would be better spent finding out why the ONS and PHE refuse
to release this crucial data (without which their ASMR claims cannot be checked
or verified).</span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Norman Fenton</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ3aA2qHSe8lCYrEuKYel_a4P-6BXtLeqrMaYHiWKdDqPNv2I8TPCn7BqGyLtDBorz8qS-nT_P55dy1U0Fgasc4KpqpqMeJ2INYVflK48iP1qt2q_tQSxWsOUojFa_oVRdffHXx84-oRwN/s825/twitter_replies_to_Michael_George.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="753" data-original-width="825" height="584" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ3aA2qHSe8lCYrEuKYel_a4P-6BXtLeqrMaYHiWKdDqPNv2I8TPCn7BqGyLtDBorz8qS-nT_P55dy1U0Fgasc4KpqpqMeJ2INYVflK48iP1qt2q_tQSxWsOUojFa_oVRdffHXx84-oRwN/w640-h584/twitter_replies_to_Michael_George.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>This is the dumb follow-up which I will not respond to. Whatever we say they will no doubt mark our article as 'fake news' or 'false'. <br /><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Hi Norman</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Thanks for sharing those responses, which I hadn't
seen. <br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Your replies don't seem to address Michael George's central
point, however, which is that the rising trend you identify is a result of the
changing age profile of the vaccinated groups. Do you disagree with that?</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Just for the record, given your second reply, do you agree
that your blog does not provide evidence that the vaccines are harmful?</p>
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<![endif]--> <br /></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-33996402857016961902021-09-23T06:11:00.006-07:002021-10-28T07:48:24.812-07:00A comparison of age adjusted all-cause mortality rates in England between vaccinated and unvaccinated<p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Norman Fenton and Martin Neil <b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/10/comparing-all-cause-mortality-rate-by.html" target="_blank">See 26 October UPDATE to this article</a></span><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>The UK Government's own data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety. </b></span><br /></p><p>In a <a href="https://www.normanfenton.com/post/paradoxes-in-the-reporting-of-covid19-vaccine-effectiveness" target="_blank">previous post</a> we argued that the most reliable long-term measure of Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness/safety is the age adjusted all-cause mortality rate. If, over a reasonably prolonged period, fewer vaccinated people die, from whatever cause, including Covid-19, than unvaccinated people then we could conclude that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks. We also pointed out that, to avoid the confounding effect of age, it is critical that data for each age category is available, rather than the aggregated data because, clearly, aggregated data might exaggerate vaccine mortality rates if more older people, with shorter expected mortality, are included. The UK roll out of the vaccine was executed in descending age order, from older to younger, except very early on in the vaccination programme when the vulnerable young were vaccinated along with the very elderly. As the programme progressed those vaccinated were, on average, older than those who remained unvaccinated and as the roll out proceeded a progressively higher proportion of the residual unvaccinated population are younger. <br /></p><p>The <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/methodologies/weeklycovid19agestandardisedmortalityratesbyvaccinationstatusenglandmethodology" target="_blank"> latest Office for National Statistics report on mortality rates by Covid vaccination status</a> provides data on all deaths – Covid related and non-Covid related for the period Jan-July 2021 for the unvaccinated and the different categories of vaccinated ('within 21 days of first dose', '21 days or more after first dose', 'second dose'). The ONS data for Covid-19 mortality, is given in <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fdeathsbyvaccinationstatusengland%2fdeathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021/dataset.xlsx" target="_blank">Table 4 of the ONS spreadsheet</a> and the ONS data for all-cause mortality excluding Covid-19, is given in <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fdeathsbyvaccinationstatusengland%2fdeathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021/dataset.xlsx" target="_blank">Table 5 of the same spreadsheet</a>. Both tables are reproduced at the bottom of this post. <br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><p>We believe there are severe weaknesses and possible errors in
the ONS data (see foonote**). But importantly, while it does not provide the raw age categorized
data, it <i><b>does </b></i>provide "age standardized" mortality rates*** (also see <a href="https://youtu.be/DAixfvu6tuY" target="_blank">explanatory video</a>). This means the ONS have calculated the overall mortality rate in a way which (they believe) adjusts for the confounding effect of age, and this is ‘baked into’ the mortality rates they have published. However, while they report this age adjusted mortality rate for each of the three separate categories of vaccinated people they do not report it for the combined set of vaccinated people. In our analysis, and in the absence of the actual age stratified data, we compute a population weighted age adjusted all-cause mortality rate by using the ONS’s published population sizes for each of the three categories of vaccinated. This is not ideal because the ONS age adjusted rates are so opaque and are not 'abolute numbers'. However, in the absence of detailed data this should provide a reasonable estimate of what the ONS age adjusted all-cause mortality rate would be for all unvaccinated if they had bothered to report it. We will call this the ‘weighted vaccinated mortality rate’. The data table derived from the ONS data and used to compute this rate is given at the end of this post.</p><p><b>It turns out that, even using this age adjusted mortality rate, the death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. </b></p><p>The age adjusted mortality rates for vaccinated against unvaccinated for weeks 1 to 26 of 2021 are charted below. Overall, the chart shows that, over time, the weighted mortality rate for the vaccinated has steadily increased and by week 16 (23 April 2021), surpassed that for the unvaccinated. </p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPNQ6VybEXKkj6wKmnTKA9w_BVEddWHJHDp79Ndh1ZdhARq-D5ehpU6kw0BJ5UKlP9-G2e56hZdMg6jyq2SsjEPzt2hMHJVodeYo4VzKeFEflEWFZoUz6TAOyrnTjiNSCMDKxxc9jYkm8h/s2071/vacc+v+unvacc2.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="2071" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPNQ6VybEXKkj6wKmnTKA9w_BVEddWHJHDp79Ndh1ZdhARq-D5ehpU6kw0BJ5UKlP9-G2e56hZdMg6jyq2SsjEPzt2hMHJVodeYo4VzKeFEflEWFZoUz6TAOyrnTjiNSCMDKxxc9jYkm8h/w640-h290/vacc+v+unvacc2.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Week 1 ends 6 Jan 2021, Week 26 ends 2 July 2021<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><p>The chart suggests a normal seasonal mortality trend for the unvaccinated, with a winter peak on week 6, 12 February 2021, and a steady decline toward summer. In contrast, the pattern for the vaccinated is completely different. From week 24 onwards the mortality rates for the vaccinated and unvaccinated appear to be converging as summer begins. </p><p>As the ONS data breaks down the data over time for the three categories of vaccinated (those within 21 days of first dose, those 21 days after first dose, and those after two doses), we can also plot mortality charts for each of these categories. The mortality rate, for week 26, up to 2 July, for the unvaccinated is around 25 deaths per 100,000. But there are big differences between the mortality rates for the different categories of vaccinated deaths. For example, for those after 21 days of first dose, the comparable mortality is around 89 deaths per 100,000 people (a number which has drastically increased since January), while for those vaccinated with two doses there were approximately 15 deaths per 100,000 in the same July period.
</p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsPuQtw-KSbpawhW0aSexMP_YPTXIKjm17ua9h0RjA1ZNTTkMFOGGiugjOfsXp27FbEU6Esj5qpyLsTaHBkaMKL9oxG72DbRlaVwzspOTBroielO5SXOfkmw3KT2FE3glOg-tMuEZBxLux/s948/vacc+v+unvacc3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="948" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsPuQtw-KSbpawhW0aSexMP_YPTXIKjm17ua9h0RjA1ZNTTkMFOGGiugjOfsXp27FbEU6Esj5qpyLsTaHBkaMKL9oxG72DbRlaVwzspOTBroielO5SXOfkmw3KT2FE3glOg-tMuEZBxLux/w640-h292/vacc+v+unvacc3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>The trends for the different vaccination categories are also concerning. In contrast to the unvaccinated, the mortality rates for the vaccinated have initially increased from very low initial values, but then have increased, whilst that for the unvaccinated has decreased. The charts below show these patterns.</p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8JUziWXdOv7FUrafOqj1aLAw5pwqlDxj3pX0GWeuk4ixMIk0zMomqLH3FdubBXV9gpUgtgrbCOXKimQQw6WuR8zYIWi5S6IBt-DzgpcBag5RHVAS5EJUjhBmcMmLZxlYq2eyTq8j2Oycg/s948/less+21+days.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="948" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8JUziWXdOv7FUrafOqj1aLAw5pwqlDxj3pX0GWeuk4ixMIk0zMomqLH3FdubBXV9gpUgtgrbCOXKimQQw6WuR8zYIWi5S6IBt-DzgpcBag5RHVAS5EJUjhBmcMmLZxlYq2eyTq8j2Oycg/w640-h210/less+21+days.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzdH8oDYdgboM6Cej4LOanb9rABA_mxZTbAtsu4F9NhqbNsGaJ7vrwKTAh6Eo4gFE2kZbM_tm18FSwsDKmp-K_Zm63C89aezvEqejMmJTNrWojkExT4gbr17CrD6jraAZH7dxl7mMrxHg6/s969/more+21+days.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="318" data-original-width="969" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzdH8oDYdgboM6Cej4LOanb9rABA_mxZTbAtsu4F9NhqbNsGaJ7vrwKTAh6Eo4gFE2kZbM_tm18FSwsDKmp-K_Zm63C89aezvEqejMmJTNrWojkExT4gbr17CrD6jraAZH7dxl7mMrxHg6/w640-h210/more+21+days.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsdRSZpymmiqYc7C9QS2Mtaa4TJaS4EzqmnuDuuVn137vQu-SGcXj5PBtmOuq9sHiR_T3aGwd1hzeKAQx7QG_fH0FHeC7Y3lfqsZMoajSwoVoBYWmaFxsoiGAejI33te2bqku160q_bAwK/s967/double+dosed2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="317" data-original-width="967" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsdRSZpymmiqYc7C9QS2Mtaa4TJaS4EzqmnuDuuVn137vQu-SGcXj5PBtmOuq9sHiR_T3aGwd1hzeKAQx7QG_fH0FHeC7Y3lfqsZMoajSwoVoBYWmaFxsoiGAejI33te2bqku160q_bAwK/w640-h210/double+dosed2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>Since 19 March the double dose vaccination mortality rate has increased week-on-week more or less consistently. The mortality rate for those more than 21 days after first dose increased drastically in the spring (at week 14) and remained high thereafter. Mortality within 21 days of vaccination initially increased but looks to have stabilised, albeit with some noise. We will leave it to clinical colleagues to explain why there are such different patterns.</p><p>Because of the limitations and possible errors in the ONS data**, there are many caveats that need to be applied to our crude analysis (including some which are covered in the <a href="https://www.normanfenton.com/post/paradoxes-in-the-reporting-of-covid19-vaccine-effectiveness" target="_blank">previous post</a>). <b>But we can conclude that the ONS's own data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety. </b></p><p></p><p>It is also important to note that the population of vaccinated people is becoming sufficiently large and representative that the criticality of age adjustment becomes much diminished. We will be doing a follow-up analysis that takes account of this.</p><p><br /></p><p>* For those who responded to this article saying they did not understand why we focus on all-cuase mortality:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRaBeOztU6yk7u6B25cPYm0yYxLyMIaL590KrqprwdxEns7pZhe6A9q46VOg1ZzXJ3JcT1FZ21mCSf7FlGZZpoG2_XoAZyfhUbBJIL5hugkI3bP4awKxVrwUoTXvx_mYEpiurlX1Gw9GNO/s2048/why_all_cause.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1310" data-original-width="2048" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRaBeOztU6yk7u6B25cPYm0yYxLyMIaL590KrqprwdxEns7pZhe6A9q46VOg1ZzXJ3JcT1FZ21mCSf7FlGZZpoG2_XoAZyfhUbBJIL5hugkI3bP4awKxVrwUoTXvx_mYEpiurlX1Gw9GNO/w640-h410/why_all_cause.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p> **Potential limitations and errors in the ONS data (with thanks to Clare Craig for identifying some of these)<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Does not provide the raw age categorized data. <br /></li><li>The age standardized score used by ONS relies on the 2011 census data to
determine the population proportions in each age category. These
proportions have changed since 2011 and, as we noted in <a href="https://www.significancemagazine.com/science/701-misinterpreting-statistical-anomalies-and-risk-assessment-when-analysing-covid-19-deaths-by-ethnicity" target="_blank">this article</a>, these differences can significantly change the results. </li><li>There are inconsistencies in vaccination numbers between the ONS data and the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) data. For example, by week 26 NIMS has 28.1 million people over 18 who have had second does, but ONS has only 23.3 million. </li><li>The ONS total population is 16.6 million short of the whole population. Only 12.6 million are under 18 so the remaining 4 million are omitted for some other reason.</li><li>The rates in the unvaccinated on 8th Jan are
lower than the double vaccinated in summer.
Also, on 8th January only 12% of over 65 year olds had been
vaccinated, so the unvaccinated population should have had a death rate
very similar to background levels. </li><li>The wildly increasing weekly age adjusted mortality rates (for non-Covid related deaths) for the 38 million unvaccinated population in January are totally inconsistent with weekly changes in previous years. Although this population excludes the under 18s and the 1.2 million (mainly over 65s) who had by then recieved their first dose, we would not expect the mortality rate for this population to be drastically different to the mortality rate for England seen in recent years as reported in a <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsintheukfrom1990to2020" target="_blank">different ONS report</a>. </li><li>Ultimately we need to exclude unnatual deaths such as murders, accidents and suicides since these may introduce bias between the cohorts, especially in the young age categories where the overall death numbers are small.<br /></li></ul><br /><p> Here is Table 4 data the raw data, for Covid-19 deaths, as provided by the ONS:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil8ItoBL5UnbHeEWjMlaeXuby7TrNyqHC8RaR6-6CpQS1iHpIEs35ptnayG__bWL3EMfU9O72-68SEn35YZhplKgkovOsLoq-53Jz6lNzA5yFtqz3d8f6b60iOPLbJAwhxDnJeSNHEWb4B/s1825/table4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="923" data-original-width="1825" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil8ItoBL5UnbHeEWjMlaeXuby7TrNyqHC8RaR6-6CpQS1iHpIEs35ptnayG__bWL3EMfU9O72-68SEn35YZhplKgkovOsLoq-53Jz6lNzA5yFtqz3d8f6b60iOPLbJAwhxDnJeSNHEWb4B/w640-h324/table4.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>Here is Table 5 data the raw data, for all-cause deaths except for Covid-19, as provided by the ONS:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9UN1YZ5n6eAg1wFclk4BwrOOupuYpxCBMZ_LPFPED6YEpaCXfK7bSWvCRGQoVjulfIOxLSQiugahFbT061PmdQtO98OCXa1te4_Zer_BLCcHXmj3V3eJOjJ7r6_MNUBHiETi_sZo_UAPQ/s1814/table5_3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="927" data-original-width="1814" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9UN1YZ5n6eAg1wFclk4BwrOOupuYpxCBMZ_LPFPED6YEpaCXfK7bSWvCRGQoVjulfIOxLSQiugahFbT061PmdQtO98OCXa1te4_Zer_BLCcHXmj3V3eJOjJ7r6_MNUBHiETi_sZo_UAPQ/w640-h328/table5_3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>Finally, here is the data we used to calculate combined all-cause age adjusted mortality rates and the weighted vaccinated mortality rate.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGbZ65H9jIjkYZ1hSNQmw6RacxNHzj24Rm5gxQ98ZhYlLATR-ZthezBZQBD7swbWuGAAreUUDZQUf4nV7-DLrQesPO8H0Twd6C8JgF9AOcGDNmsrI6V80o1u4pYuipNNedmfWZXioMLuHu/s1963/weighted_data.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="992" data-original-width="1963" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGbZ65H9jIjkYZ1hSNQmw6RacxNHzj24Rm5gxQ98ZhYlLATR-ZthezBZQBD7swbWuGAAreUUDZQUf4nV7-DLrQesPO8H0Twd6C8JgF9AOcGDNmsrI6V80o1u4pYuipNNedmfWZXioMLuHu/w640-h324/weighted_data.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>***</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfM-6xMPCTC7pNGEajrlOd8lWAA6lYda4Z3kYeMqktl-uMGbdf2GIG5vC_LSTiq4hjqh1dY3zDIUzpZav6SvCMqdHR_HOhdJ0ZrwKHFj9F3xinytENZZ4Kc3n5YD6Gx0skk-iUp784C3Vd/s1243/age_standarized_def.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1243" data-original-width="944" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfM-6xMPCTC7pNGEajrlOd8lWAA6lYda4Z3kYeMqktl-uMGbdf2GIG5vC_LSTiq4hjqh1dY3zDIUzpZav6SvCMqdHR_HOhdJ0ZrwKHFj9F3xinytENZZ4Kc3n5YD6Gx0skk-iUp784C3Vd/w304-h400/age_standarized_def.JPG" width="304" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The ONS definition of age-standardised mortality rates (click to enlarge)<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p>Norman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.com88