tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post4705186953942256380..comments2017-09-22T21:09:36.573-07:00Comments on Probability and Risk: Bayes and the Law: Guardian articleNorman Fentonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-42170507103535034942015-12-17T17:26:44.691-08:002015-12-17T17:26:44.691-08:00Nice post.Nice post.farnandashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02349201946670312332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-25316851576592480742011-10-05T09:30:27.383-07:002011-10-05T09:30:27.383-07:00^ Brilliant.
When do we expect to hear the result...^ Brilliant.<br /><br />When do we expect to hear the results?gyg3shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08295092807711672726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-34728092399358207952011-10-05T06:45:12.774-07:002011-10-05T06:45:12.774-07:00We have already got the support of people at the C...We have already got the support of people at the Criminal Cases Review Commission to look at cases on file to do exactly this.Norman Fentonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-40097032522452034102011-10-05T05:54:34.018-07:002011-10-05T05:54:34.018-07:00^ Quite.
But if you tackle this problem, it will ...^ Quite.<br /><br />But if you tackle this problem, it will force scrutiny of the court process and make the relevance of your work all the more obvious. (Even obvious to some of the detractors at the bottom of the Guardian article).<br /><br />Just imagine if the probability that a person has been convicted of a crime given that he committed a crime is ninety-percent.<br /><br />Of a prison population of 88,000; 8,800 people would be in prison for crimes that they did not commit. Just imagine how disquieting the general populace would find this information.<br /><br />Change the focus of your research and find the answer to this question for me, please.gyg3shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08295092807711672726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-55686063553263601232011-10-04T08:10:47.446-07:002011-10-04T08:10:47.446-07:00>in relation to the judicial system of England ...>in relation to the judicial system of England and Wales, what is the probability that a person who has been convicted of a crime committed that crime? <br /><br />That is another question that can only be rationally answered by Bayes!Norman Fentonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00665217873819266827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6468094748577058716.post-41724450037466915202011-10-04T02:18:15.899-07:002011-10-04T02:18:15.899-07:00More interesting, perhaps, is the answer to the qu...More interesting, perhaps, is the answer to the question: in relation to the judicial system of England and Wales, what is the probability that a person who has been convicted of a crime committed that crime?gyg3shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08295092807711672726noreply@blogger.com